GAA 2011 League

[InishGael]

National Football League starts this evening in GAA. Don't know if many Irish followers on this site or if other punters interested in betting on Gaelic of Hurling. Obviously Paddy Power will have full markets on leagues, unsure about other sites. Heres my take on this evenings games that tickle my fancy:

Donegal v Sligo

Always wary of backing my own county, especially when everyone knows they are prob most unpredictible side around. Talent always evident however can under achieve. However tonight, fancy a Donegal win. Sligo had impressive year last year in seeing off Mayo and Galway. Tonight however they are missing couple of players while Donegal welcome back the former Young player of the year and combined with Dermot Molloy should have scoring power to see of Sligo on home patch.

Tip - Donegal @ 8/15

Mayo v Down

Although Down were All-Ireland finalists last year, i fancy Mayo taking points this evening. Down have several injuries, mainly in defence but are still very strong in attack. Mayo have new manager and hasnt got quite a settled side yet as played several different players in pre-season FBD league. Also missing Conor Mortimor. Although i facny a Mayo win, think it will be too tight a contest to risk money on it.

Armagh v Dublin

Game of the night. Armagh are at home however its at redeveloped Atlhletic grounds where none of these players have played before at inter-county level so home advantage not as important as usual. Armagh are a solid side and in Steven O'Donnell have a proven scored even though hes pushing on the years. New star, Rory Grugan has a massive future but this is his NFL debut and cant rely on him just yet. If Jamie Clarke was starting, id tip Armagh however the Crossmaglen man is out therefore i feel the Dubs will win through. I've been impressed with workrate of Dublin team since last year and they turned over Tyrone in possesion several times in last year All Ireland series. If they can turnover possession on Tyrone, they can do so to Armagh also. Also in Bernard Brogan, they have Player of Year and top player in country at moment in my opinion. Dubs also looked hungry and impressive in beating Meath last week.

Tip - Dublin at 8/13

Nice wee double of €10 Donegal/Dublin returns almost €25 whatever that is in odds.

[InishGael]

Double failed but was close. Dublin seemed to be comfortable enough and led throughout against Armagh. Donegal were poor in first half and had man sent off. Showed great resistance with only 14 men in second half and twice came back from 4 pts down to record a creditable draw. Mayo v Down was close as well. Down led by 7 however couldn't close out game and Mayo reeled off 7 pts in a row to leave it all square at the end.

Looking towards tomorrows games - 13 taking place. Difficult first week as evidenced by 2 draws in tonights games so no definite banker games (Bar 1). However my picks are:

Laois v Meath

Laois have been hit & miss in recent seasons and havent reached heights of few years ago. Still have couple very capable players in towering Brendan Quigley, ex Aussie Rules star Colm Begley and lively duo in fulll foward line - MJ Tierney & Ross Munnelly. However Meath will always be favs in a match between these teams and showed their capabilities last week when showing great resilience & hunger to force O'Byrne Cup final game against Dublin to extra time. Although they lost that game & hit a few bad wides, Meath have more quality throughout team to account for Laois.
Tip - Away win. Meath @ 4/6. (10/11 -1pts which also appeals).

London v Kilkenny

Not great value here bu cannot see anything but a home win here. In recent years, these have been 2 worst teams competing in football in Ireland. With boom in construction in recent years, there was no reason for people to leave Ireland and go to traditional spots from work, London being one of these. With little emigration, the exiles suffered on the field. However with Ireland currently in disarray, thousands are leaving each week which means London should have a fairly decent side at their disposal. Kilkenny on the other hand are woeful. Kilkenny is a Hurling county pure and simple. Tiperary beat them in last years All Ireland Hurling final to deny them a famous 5 in a row, however in football, fielding is considered a success. Granted, there are pockets of the county which play football, they would struggle against most club teams let alone an inter county side.
So should be comfortable home win - London @ 1/12

These are only 2 i would stake 10/10 pts on. Others i fancy are Kildare, Wexford and Roscommon and maybe Galway. Hard to gauge in first round of fixtures so should get more easier picks as weeks go by.

[InishGael]

Meath let me down in first week however London won easily. Of my other fancies, Kildare and Wexford won while Roscommon drew and Galway lost.

2 Games i'll chance tomorrow and loads then to have a look at on Sunday. Anyway tomorrow first.

Tyrone v Donegal: Tyrone will expect to bounce back from defeat in first week against Derry. They will be expected to get promotion this year and will have to beat Donegal to get back on track. Donegal were excellent in coming from 8 points down against Sligo with only 14 men to snatch a draw so theyll be confidant of getting something from game. However even though both sides missing some big players, Tyrone have better squad to cope. Donegal missing Full Back Neil McGee and midfield duo Rory Kavanagh and Kevin Cassidy. These are 3 of Donegals most experienced players so think home side will win although think it will be tighter than bookies reckon as McGuinness has added a bit of steel and bite to Donegal team.
Limerick v Westmeath: Gulf in class between these 2 sides. Limerick best team in division and proved this by beating Clare by 9 points away last week while Westmeath were hammered by Laois at home.

[InishGael]

Gave up GAA league predictions early but have been betting recently on all sorts of shite so going back to this as it supposed to be what i know. Championship means everything in GAA so put league bollocks behind me and hopefully try win a few quid. Don't know if many Irish posters on this forum that fancies offering their opinion or if any rest of ye's care or would bother betting on GAA but im gonna stick my thoughts here to help my sanity. Odds all from Paddy Power.

Sat 11th Hurling - Wexford v Kilkenny: Kilkenny masters of Hurling past few years however media have been putting notions out that there could be an upset here. Kilkenny were denied 5 All Irelands in a row last year by Tipperary and were hammered by Dublin in this years league final. Then their U21's lost to Wexford during week so could be a great chance for Wexford Seniors to do a double over Cats in a week. However i can't see this happening. Kilkenny have had a few high profile injuries recently however have superstar Henry Shefflin back for this game along with Tommy Walsh, Richie Power etc and I think they'll have a point to prove and should win handy. Straight win is measly 1/8 however should cover a -5 handicap at 1/2.
However i'm gonna play it a bit safe and take -3 at 2/7.

Sun 12th - Football: Carlow v Louth - Again a bit of mismatch on paper with Louth being big favs. Carlow struggled in Division 4 of league and finished midtable while Louth finished Division 3 champions. However this should be a tighter affair as its a Championship game. Louth were robbed of Lenister Championship last year and have a fairly talented squad and will have ambitions of rectifying last years disaster (conceded last minute goal to lose Leinster Final when Meath player fell and threw ball into net - completely illegal but ref gave goal and Louth lost).
Anyway straight win is 1/6 while think they should cover -4 at 4/7. Again i'm playing it safe and taking -2 at 2/7.

Last GAA game is Cavan v Donegal. Never like backing my own county but can't see Donegal losing this one. Cavan have home advantage but have been consistently poor in Championship recently. A lot of faith however are being put into their U21 players who reached this years U21 Championship final however were hammered. Cavan manager has handed 8 debuts to players from U21 team and although they are undoubtably talented players, can't see all 8 players adapting to Ulster Championship pace on their first game and combining to cause an upset. They'll still rely on Seanie Johnston and Michael Lyng however Donegal have become a mean machine under new manager Jim McGuinness and defence should cope with aforementioned Cavan duo. Donegal captain Michael Murphy one of best players in country at minute and survived an injury scare to start and although Donegal were shite in preliminary round against Antrim, the victory not the performance was all that mattered that day. All in all, fancy a Donegal win which is priced at 1/4 over 70 minutes. Should cover -3 at 8/11 however going with safety handicap of -1 at 1/3.

Straying away from GAA, Honduras look nailed on to beat Grenada in Gold Cup but odds on PP a woeful 1/10. See plently of other tempting markets but need to get a wee run together so sticking with above.

4 straight wins: Kilkenny 1/8, Louth 1/6, Donegal 1/4 and Honduras 1/10 returns €18.05 from €10
4 Handicap wins: Kilkenny -5 1/2, Louth -4 4/7, Donegal -3 8/11 & Honsuras returns €44.79
Safer Handicap: Kilkenny -3 2/7, Louth -2 2/7, Donegal -1 1/3 & Honduras returns €24.44.

Unfortunately i only have cash on Betfair at moment so hope to do something close to above in single bets. Heres hoping.

[InishGael]

Acca's very nearly came up. Honduras won easily 7-1 while 2 of GAA games went according to plan. Kilkenny covered all handicaps with an 11 point victory while Donegal also dominated with a 9 point win however last game between Carlow & Louth failed. Louth had 3 point lead going into closing minutes however Carlow came back to cause a huge upset to win by single point.
Thankfully only had Kilkenny and Donegal backed on Betfair so made few pound for a change.

[InishGael]

Missed last week but was a quiet week anyway. Loads of game his weekend though. Not goin into much detail but heres my thoughts and fancies for Saturdays games.

Starting with certs:
Clare v Down - Clare at home but are a mid table Division 4 team while Down got to All-Ireland Final late year. Points to a clear Down win even though they have a few key injuries. Best odds on straight win are 1/9 with 32Red however -4 at 3/10 on handicap also looks safe.
Cork v Offaly - Hurling this time and Cork will be full of confidence after hammering 10 goals and a load of points past halpess Laois last week. Offaly aren't a bad side & ran Dublin close but Cork at home should be far too strong. Again straight win best with 32Red at 1/8 while again -4 at 3/10 at PP should be safe.
Also see Monaghan beating Offaly in football at 4/9 which is avail at few firms including 32Red again. Antrim Hurlers should see off Carlow at home. 1/3 with William Hill.
Don't think you can do GAA Acca with 32Red which is a pity. Paddy Power odds awful so may need to go wee -1 or -2 with Paddy Power to get decent return.
Anyway See Wins for Down and Monaghan in football and Antrim and Cork in Hurling.

Once again, i've only cash on Betfair so hopefully get decent odds on exchange on some these games. However if i had a bit of spare cash, think London will cause an upset at home to Fermanagh. Exiles very nearly beat Mayo in first round and Fermanagh are in poor shape at minute. They were 7/2 all week with PP but now down to 2/1 although still able to get 5/2 at William Hill. Def think London can cause upset of weekend.
Antrim are also decent value at 21/20 at Boyles. Westmeath hammered in last game and will find it tough in Belfast especially without their star forward Dessie Dolan.

Might actually go a wee accum now on Down (Football), Cork (Hurling), Monaghan (Football), Antrim (Football and Hurling) & maybe London (Football).

[Suir Thing]

Hello InishGael, I agree with your predictions in general but find it strange that a Donegal man has avoided commenting on his own home county's game against Tyrone , while commenting on hurling?

Gaelic Football, All Ireland Championship , 25 June 2011fficeffice" />

13:30 London (5/2) v (9) Fermanagh (11/18

14:00 Antrim (20/19) v (38/5) Westmeath (13/10)

15:00 Clare (9) v (20) Down (1/9)

17:00 Cavan (11/8) v (15/2) Longford (10/11)

19:00 Laois (2/5) v (9) Tipperary (10/3)

19:00 Louth (29/10) v (19/2) Meath (1/2)

19:00 Offaly (13/5) v (8) Monaghan (4/9)

19:00 Wicklow (6/4) v (15/2) Sligo (10/11)

26 June 2011

14:00 Mayo (10/11) v (15/2) Galway (11/8)

15:30 Tyrone (8/11) v (8) Donegal (2)

14:00 Wexford (1/10) v (14) Carlow (7)

16:00 Dublin (7/12) v (8) Kildare (23/10)

Hurling, All Ireland Championship , 25 June 2011

15:00 Cork (1/9) v (40) Offaly (12)

16:00 Antrim (1/3) v (12) Carlow (7/2)

My Selections from the list above :

London v Fermanagh ,I agree that, London have a good chance to turnover a very weak Fermanagh team, both teams played in Div 4 last league season, (Fermanagh who were at home beat them 0-14 0-08 when they met in the league) London now have a stronger team where the Fermanagh team has been weakened.	London	+3	EVS
Antrim v Westmeath, Antrim should be winning this, Westmeath were awful last week against Wexford.	Antrim		21/20
Clare v Down, The Ulster team should be too strong here and should have a straight forward task.	Down		1/12
Laois v Tipperary, Laois played well enough when losing to the Dubs and had a good league campaign getting promoted from Div 2, and should have too much football for Tipp.	Laois		1/3
Offaly v Monaghan, Monaghan are a better team than recent results in the Championship and league suggest and should be too strong for Offaly provided they can keep 15 players on the field for a change.	Monaghan		4/9
Wexford v Carlow, Saw Wexford playing in the league and their forward were impressive, continued with this when they took Westmeath apart in the championship, Wexford have Croke Park experience and the big field will suit them very much.	Wexford		1/10
Tyrone v Donegal, A lot of talk about this Donegal team after a very good league campaign. Tyrone are an ageing team but that does not matter, they have the ability to make a real scrap out of this, Donegal always flop when expected to perform and therefore never make a good betting proposition, but it should be a close game.	Donegal +4 4/11
Cork v Offaly. Should be straight forward for Cork, but they won't piss all over Offaly like they did to Laois last week.	Cork		1/10
Antrim v Carlow. This is a hurling fixture that interests me. 2 teams that operated mid table in Div 2 last season, Antrim are a better team, but Carlow have improved a lot in recent years, their problem is that they blow hot and cold, where Antrim are a little more consistent. It was 0-10 to 1-06 in favour to Antrim when these teams met in the league at Belfast, so Carlow are punching at their own weight here and if they have sorted the defence problems it will be close. prices from Boylesports	Carlow	+5	11/10

[InishGael]

Whats the craic Suir, good to see another GAA minded person on here. I'll be honest and deliberately avoided Donegal game. Being superstitous and don't want to mention or back them. I do think we'll beat them though now as you mention it.
Agree with your assessments and i've gone with below for a wee acca:
Antrim -1 v Westmeath @ 6/5
Down -3 v Clare @ 2/9
Laois -1 v Tipp @ 4/7
Monaghan -1 v Offaly @ 4/7
Wexford -2 v Carlow @ 2/9
Donegal +5 v Tyrone @ 2/9
Cork -3 v Offaly @ 2/9
Antrim -1 v Carlow @ 1/3
Too late for London v Fermanagh game but would have taken that +3 on them. Above odds with PP @ 15/1.

[Suir Thing]

Good Luck with them selections Inish, London are out of the blocks and off to a good start,

[InishGael]

And to your picks Suir. Aye see theyre 7 pts up at HT. Knew I should have taken 4/1 at start of week.

[Suir Thing]

All-Ireland SFC Qualifiers Round 1 Results
London 0-15 Fermanagh 0-09
Antrim 0-16 Westmeath 1-07

Down 1-13 Clare 1-12
Longford 2-16 Cavan 0-11
Wicklow 1-18 Sligo 0-16
Laois 2-16 Tipperary 0-11
Meath 5-08 Louth 2-08
Offaly 1-18 Monaghan 1-10
All-Ireland Hurling Qualifiers Phase 1 Results
Cork 2-17 Offaly 2-16
Antrim 0-23 Carlow 1-12

Well Inish what you think, Close but no cigar , Monaghan let me down and Carlow's loss by 8 points did not cover the 5 point handicap. Shame when we got the bigger priced ones correct. Anyhow there is always tomorrow and Donegal! and also
In the big hurling games coming up soon, Killkenny and Tipperary are nailed on to win the Leinster and Munster finals.

[InishGael]

Was an interesting day Suir. As always some surprising results. London were everybodys value bet of weekend and they fairly delivered. Great victory for them. Was surprised at the Monaghan result, especially by 8 points, thought they would have won that one.
Plenty of tough ones today. Hard for me to bet on Donegal v Tyrone without being biased. If we turn up, i can definitely see us winning. Wexford should have too much firepower for Carlow while other 2 games are hard to call, will give them a miss on betting front although if i was pushed id take a Dublin/Galway double.
Aye would be a big upset if Kilkenny & Tipp didnt lift their respective provincial titles although Dublin have better chance at an upset than Waterford however can't see Cats losing both league final & Leinster final to Dubs.

[Suir Thing]

Inish, We might be able to take something from Monaghan getting beaten by 8 points, that is they do not have a hard luck story, they are simply shite and remember Tyrone huffed and puffed to get past them in Ulster, I think Mongahan played most of the game with 14 and ended the game with 13....so Tyrone are after slipping maybe more than we think. Tyrone will be winning no All Ireland but its Donegal's big chance today to stand up and be counted. Donegal 13/8, Boylesports.
As you say Wexford should easily beat Carlow, and the other 2 games Mayo v Galway & Dublin v Kildare are hard to call, thats probably because they are 4 bad teams that will win no All Ireland either, but I have gone for the following accum which gives 5/1, (and then added to a few soccer matches of course!)
Wexford 1/10
Mayo 5/6 (I know you say Galway, but dispite what is said, league form does count and Galway were brutal in the league)
Donegal +2 4/5
Kildare +3 4/6

We will get back to the hurling in a new thread before next weekend, that will be like picking it up off the ground

[Cinny]

Nice 4 timer! Thought Donegal were very lucky to win overall, though it was more a case that Tyrone threw it away.

[Suir Thing]

Donegal 2-06 Tyrone 0-09
Mayo 1-12 Galway 1-06
Wexford 4-12 Carlow 0-10
Dublin 1-12 Kildare 1-11

Hello Cinny good to see another GAA man involved, as an Armagh man are you a wee bit jealous of Donegal , ah don't be grudge them a day in the sun you have to make your own luck too. Sam for the Hills!