Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

[Gavster]

The finalé to the 2010 season is here and what a place to finish it. I wasn't expecting rain this weekend, but practice one started on a drying track, which significantly limited running, meaning there isn't a true picture of expected form as yet.

One thing I do expect is the possibility of a Hamilton win or second place. He hasn't completed many flying laps, but the car has looked well dialled in to the circuit. Don't forget, it was a McLaren that won in Abu Dhabi last year.

Hamilton win - 9.0 @ Victor Chandler
McLaren highest scoring team - 5.0 @ Bluesq, but with Button in the top 4, it could be a decent bet.

At this point, I don't see Kubica threatening to break into the top 3 during qualifying, it's early I know, but I just expect McLaren and Redbull being at the top of their game this weekend, more so during qualifying.

So discounting Kubica, I see Button being a much better option to win, available @ 29.0 with BlueSq, (same odds available for qualifying). Obviously, it's the e/w value with this one, I don't actually expect a Button victory.


BBC coverage has informed me that all the championship contenders are running engines that have already completed two races, so reliability could be an issue, especially in the Abu Dhabi heat. I accept the temperature will get cooler during the race.

There is nothing in the top 6 and points finish markets that holds any value.


Race Match Bets:

Alonso vs Hamilton - 2.5 at Betfair. Alonso shows his hand late, but Alonso didn't show up last year and Hamilton looks fast again this year.

[Gavster]

So practice two showed that Alonso had a bit more in reserve to give, meaning that he'll certainly figure at the sharp end of the grid tomorrow.

I'm not sure if McLaren are really ahead or whether Red Bull are holding back. The Red Bulls did look to be trying quite hard, but 5 laps of fuel extra in the tank can make a huge difference to lap time.

Anyway, judging today's events so far, it's going to be incredibly close up front. I'll stick my neck out and say Hamilton's pace is genuine relative to Ferrari, but I have my suspicions that Red Bull are sandbagging.


A few qualifying match bets....

Schumi was faster than Rosberg this morning, but this afternoon, he was only 2-hundredths of a second behind him, so @ 3.25 with William Hill, there's some value. You can do combinations at Bwin if you want to accept only 2.72.

Hulkenberg is 2.02 to out qualify Barrichello @ Bwin. That's some decent value for a combination.

[Gavster]

Got some decent return on the Hamilton vs Alonso race bet and the Schumacher vs Rosberg qualifying bet. Button also came in e/w for the race, so decent weekend all round.

Nearly got the Mclaren top scoring team, but Red Bull scored one more point with Webber back in eighth.


So that's the season over and no one can argue it wasn't exciting. Vettel champion... hmmm, well he certainly makes a better champion than Webber, that's for sure! As for my opinion, let's just say Red Bull deserve it more than Vettel. Even so, if Alonso had won, there would have been a nasty taste after what happened in Hockenheim; so I guess Ferrari got their just desserts for that immoral driver switch.


See you for the season build-up in 2011