Japanese Grand Prix

[Gavster]

This week brings us Suzuka, the home of the Japanese Grand Prix and the famous 130R corner, one of the most spectacular in F1 and held in the same high regard as the staggering Eau Rouge at Spa. Being located on the other side of the world however, means everyone over here has to get up at stupid-o-clock to watch the practice sessions

A little memento from Japan...




The title race has had quite a kick in the balls over the last few races, and now seems to be between Alonso and Webber, with Hamilton and Vettel being regarded as the long outsiders. Hamilton only has himself to blame having lost considerable ground in the championship race. In Monza, all he had to do was sit tight and seize an opportunity when such an event presented itself... or just score. Instead, he went all hot and heavy and tangled with a Ferrari. In Singapore, he quite rightly had a go, but this again ended in tears. I do think he had the advantage on the exit of that corner, and I believe Webber should have conceded. Had this have been earlier in the season, I think the stewards would have got involved. Either way, two races have ended nil-point for Hamilton. With three races remaining (possibly two depending on Korea) there are still opportunities for heroics...


I see this race as being Red Bull and Ferrari all over again. Alonso has won here twice here and Vettel once. The momentum is with Alonso right now and Webber has lost that cutting edge *cough* [fucking luck you mean?] *cough*


Winner

As with all these bets, I would wait until practice 1 & 2 before placing anything.

Alonso to win 4.5 @ extrabet
Kubica to win 67.0 @ 365 e/w 1/5 3 places
Rosberg to win 81.0 @ 365 e/w 1/5 3 places


Top 6

The Top-6 market has been neutered. There's no bloody value.

Unless you want to piss money away on Schumacher, Sutil and Hulkenberg, then it's not worth it


Points finish

Oh you're shitting me! The points finish market is the same.


Ok I can't be arsed with this. Wait until Practice 1, then come back for value.


Match bets

Ok I've found something...

Race - Senna vs Yamamoto 2.2 @ Bwin (YAM home race & Senna is shit)!
Qualy - Senna vs Yamamoto 3.5 @ SKYBET (for the reasons above)!


Anyway, I've placed a qualifying match bet treble with Skybet before everyone jumps on...

Yamamoto, Kobayashi & Kovalainen (all to beat their team mates) @ 11.08 I'm hoping both Japanese drivers capitalise on their in-depth knowledge of Suzuka. Yamamoto tends not to do well in qualifying, but for this race, I believe that could change.

[Gavster]

Well I didn't bother getting up for practice one. Just as well I didn't! Bloody hell Hamilton, you don't get extra points for writing off cars you know!

The news is that it'll be a wet qualifying session, so there could be a mixed grid tomorrow.

Yamamoto is the slowest thing to ever come out of Japan. You'd have thought the thousands of laps completed around Japanese circuits would count for something. Clearly not.

I've not given up on my treble just yet.


edit:

Sutil is looking quite handy in the dry and could figure tomorrow in the wet. Although, I might just leave this weekend well alone until qualifying is over. Tomorrow will be an absolute lottery and I can't be arsed to throw money big odds that'll more than likely crash out in the monsoon conditions. I'd rather back a good competitor to scythe through the field during the race.

[Gavster]

A little more research...

If we go back to Malaysia at the early part of the season, qualifying was extremely wet, so there may be a pattern to follow.

Here is the grid for the Malaysian Grand Prix:

1 Webber
2 Rosberg
3 Vettel
4 Sutil
5 Hulkenberg
6 Kubica
7 Barrichello
8 Schumacher
9 Kobayashi
10 Liuzzi
11 Petrov
12 de la Rosa
13 Buemi
14 Alguersuari
15 Kovalainen
16 Glock
17 Button
18 Trulli
19 Alonso
20 Hamilton
21 Massa
22 Chandhok
23 Senna
24 di Grassi


And here's the race result, which was dry start to finish. I've tagged the key players with place gains/losses.

1 Vettel (+2)
2 Webber (-1)
3 Rosberg (-1)
4 Kubica (+2)
5 Sutil (-1)
6 Hamilton (+14)
7 Massa (+14)
8 Button (+9)
9 Alguersuari (+5)
10 Hulkenberg (-5)
11 Buemi (+2)
12 Barrichello (-5)
13 Alonso (ret)
14 di Grassi
15 Chandhok
16 Senna
17 Trulli
18 Kovalainen
19 Petrov
20 Liuzzi
21 Schumacher
22 Kobayashi (-13)
23 Glock
24 de la Rosa (dns)


Using this information and applying it to Suzuka and also taking into account car development, I think there are some drivers who could play themselves into contention for a top-6 or podium.

Hulkenberg hasn't shown blistering form yet this weekend, but it seems he can handle wet conditions. The Williams is much more capable of holding position now than in the early part of the season. I'm might just take Hulkenberg top 6 @ Paddypower - 7.0

Sutil is fairly quick here. His credentials in the wet are well known, so I might reluctantly consider a pole e/w @ 51.0. I'm not sure the Force India can hold off a Renault or Ferrari during the race. There are better bets though, and Sutil/Force India haven't really met expectations this season.

Kubica is the other major threat. Not so much a wet conditions expert, but simply a threat during the race if he can get himself amongst the top 6 in qualifying. The odds aren't that great, 34.0 e/w @ Betfred.

If the Mclarens qualify poorly, then a top 6 bet could be decent.

An interesting match bet is for Rosberg vs Schumacher currently 2.62 @ William Hill. Schuey has been faster than Rosberg so far this weekend.


I will probably be up for practice 3 as I'll get chance to see some wet running. Will report back!