Singapore Grand Prix

[Gavster]

Now we are entering a decisive period of the championship. Hamilton has to score big to prevent Webber opening up any kind of considerable advantage. Likewise, Button and Vettel will be hunting down their team mates and seizing any opportunities that are carelessly presented. Alonso will just be Alonso

People are suggesting that most of the remaining tracks, including Singapore, now suit Red Bull and possibly Ferrari. Well, lets not forget that Mclaren won here last year with KERS, meaning straight-line speed does count at Singapore. We should also consider that the Red Bull car is a different beast since Hungary, where their front wing was that flexible, it was seen to be dragging on the floor. Since the improved FIA testing procedures, that wing has become noticeably stiffer.

Don't believe everything that comes from the mouth of Christian Horner, that wing is different; maybe not aerodynamically, but in the composition of the carbon-fibre layering.


On to the track and why I think Red Bull are still beatable here. I can see similar characteristics with Abu Dhabi in terms of 90 degree corners and a decent amount of straight sections. Mclaren dominated practice at Abu Dhabi and Hamilton got pole. At Singapore last year, Hamilton won from pole position. So I think it's fair to say, straight-line speed counts. Therefore, I am expecting Ferrari and Mclaren to be fighting for the top points this weekend.


On to the stand out bets:

The last few races I have found betting on the race match bets and predicting surprise top-6 and top-10 finishers much more reliable. Betting outright on the winner doesn't really offer much value for your stake, unless you expect someone like Massa or Kubica on the podium; in which case, you can get some decent e/w value.

I'll give you some winners though...

Hamilton to win - 6.4 @ Betfair (that's a bit high and does offer value considering he won last year)
Alonso to win - 5.5 @ VC
Massa to win - 26.0 @ Boyles 5.6 on the e/w 1-3.

Highest scoring team - Mclaren 4.5 & Ferrari 3.75 @ Sporting Bet. I'm just not touching Red Bull.


Top-6 Finish

Hulkenburg - 9.0 @ Skybet. He was 6th in Hungary, which is a technical circuit and 7th in Monza, which is high speed madness. Mix the two together and it seems a decent bet. Downside: he's a rookie. His 6th place depends on him beating his team mate Barrichello, which he has done for the last three races.

For the record, I don't expect a repeat performance from Mercedes/Rosberg. This circuit is much more technical than Monza. Therefore, please remove from your thoughts.


Points Finish

Hmmm, there's quite a bit of value gone from this section... Again, I'd take both Williams drivers, 1.8 & 2.2.

I think I'll leave Kobayashi this time - he let me down in Monza, so need to rebuild my trust in him.


Match Bets

Now I had a successful treble for Monza qualifying that I didn't publish on here as it was a last minute impulse bet, with a little research though, may I add! So I recommend studying practice 1,2 & 3 as it pays nicely, as every driver has an off-day! The bookies don't seem to adjust the prices of the match bets, and nor is there the kind of stampede of punters lobbing money at them as we see in the main markets. Check the previous qualifying form and race results for trends. For example, Hulkenburg has started beating Barrichello, and the odds for that are usually quite decent.

I'll add qualifying and race match bets when I see some practice sessions.

[Gavster]

Ok, so my initial worry about Hulkenberg was realised. Barrichello's prior knowledge of this track is paying dividends; so much so, I've taken 5.0 on Barrichello finishing in the top 6.

I've also taken a Schumacher, Barrichello and Kobayashi treble, all of whom have to finish a point scoring position.

I don't think we've seen the true speed of Ferrari yet. Going back to Monza, we only saw their raw pace in the qualifying sessions. I think a similar surprise could be expected.

For the rest of this weekend, I'll only be dealing in Match Bet multiples and will report back after practice 3.

[Gavster]

It's a real shame for Hulkenberg. He just about gets it hooked up only to have a five-place grid penalty inflicted on him for a gearbox change. I still see him being handy in the race with a good chance of getting in the points.

I've also taken 4.0 on Buemi getting in the points. He looks decent in a car that has the fastest straight-line speed. Nice value!

Still no qualy match bets, so back after the Chelsea game.

[Gavster]

Qualifying match bet @ Bwin

Kovi
Buemi
Rosberg
Hulkenberg

All to beat their team mates. Dodgy call on the Hulk, as I'm not sure when the bookies will apply the grid drop. I imagine they'll make it to suit their greedy snouts

There's a storm cloud coming over which makes me think Sutil!

Strange weekend so far. Can't really call much at the moment as the track hasn't been at peak running conditions at all so far. I still think Mclaren and Ferrari have a bit more to show.

[Gavster]

Terrible call on the qualifying match bet Didn't see Alguersuari carrying the form he showed in Practice One into qualifying, given Buemi had the better of him in Practice three. Hulkenberg just lots his marbles too.

I'm hopeful of my Barrichello top 6 bet, but he might get taken my Rosberg being on the dirty side.

Talking about the dirty side... Rosberg was 3rd on the clean side of the grid last year and took 2nd from Vettel into the first corner. I can see Lewis profiting from much the same advantage this year being on the clean side. These two jostling for position could leave the door open for Button, or just lead to a catastrophic crash.

Either way, that first corner will be decisive for Hamilton closing the gap on Webber. Also to consider is what could be a brittle Ferrari.

Mclaren top scoring team - 3.0 Still can't believe you can get 3.0 on Ferrari too I know there's only one of them, but it's in the 25pt slot!


Buemi v Petrov looks good considering Buemi has the clean side of the grid and extra grunt from that Ferrari engine. 2.1 @ Bwin

Rosberg is very high considering he's in 7th on the clean side. Just factor in a safety car and 81.0 e/w (1-3) looks decent. 6th and 7th on the grid last year, made 2nd and 3rd on the podium! Likewise, Kubica is also good value!

Think that's it for me this week I don't like this race anyway. In fact I hate it, along with Valencia! Ah well, enjoy it! Lets hope Hamilton gets at least 2nd!

[Gavster]

Well not sure whether it was a good race or not I was watching for what felt ages and then realised... shit, there's only 15 laps gone For the most part, it felt like ground-hog day! The crashes were ok, I guess, but the track is just so dismal and boring.

When Hamilton went off, I thought, well, ok, that's that then. It was a 50/50 crash, but felt Hamilton had past Mark sufficiently enough to have claimed the position; therefore, leaving Webber no decision but to yield. Of course, Hamilton should have known that Webber, like Schumacher never yields. So bollocks to the championship then.

I don't like Alonso much, but I like an underdog, and I think I'd prefer to have a "proper driver" win over one with superior machinery. Lets face it, if given the chance, your grandma could bang that RedBull on pole.


As for the bets, well my qualifying treble failed this week. Buemi went backwards and Rosberg didn't quite get to the podium, even though it was fairly unlikely barring a Vettel/Alonso collision.

Even so, and I don't feel I'm due any credit for this, Barrichello came in 6th ching ching! He had a shit start, but was fortuitous enough to be gifted places simply by driving in his own world, so can't complain. I think the Williams was more suited to a drying track, which is why they looked quite handy in practice.

Anyway, well done to those that followed Barrichello at 4.0!

On to Suzuka!