Italian Grand Prix

[Gavster]

The Italian Grand Prix is stage 14 of a 19 race season which still cannot called in favour of any driver or team. But just to be patriotic, I'll say Hamilton. He is by far the best driver out there anyway

Mclaren need to capitalise on their dominant win in Spa and carry that form over to Monza, which is another high-speed low-downforce circuit totally suited to the Mclaren and other teams that showed good speed at Spa.

There isn't much value in Mclaren this race. I'm just hoping Hamilton wins, rather than betting on him.


I think anyone that tuned in to watch the Belgian Grand Prix would have witnessed that Mercedes powered Force India car pass with ease down the straights. Sutil was 2nd on the the grid last year, and also managed to post the fastest lap of the race! This is a car to consider e/w pole and win bets.

Sutil pole 26.0 @ Various - e/w 1-3 1/5
Sutil win 41.0 @ Betfred e/w 1-3 1/5


Renault - well Kubica - also looked mighty at Spa and scored a podium thanks to some more kamikaze driving from Vettel. I would expect this track to serve up more rewards for Renault, but whether that's a podium or a decent points haul is difficult to say

Kubica pole 21.0 @ Various - e/w 1-3 1/5
Kubica win 29.0 @ Skybet - e/w 1-3 1/5


Ferrari face the World Motor Sports Council tomorrow. So rather than being in the headlines for their home race, they'll be damned in the press whatever the outcome of that hearing, and I couldn't give a shiny shite; I hate the way they operate and they deserve the book throwing at them.

On to the racing though, we see Alonso making all sorts of mistakes this season. Even after being gifted a race, Alonso and Ferrari are pretty much out of this championship. I think I'm right in suggesting that Ferrari have also used their allocation of new engines, which means they'll be significantly down on performance for the remainder of the season. They risk grid drops if they need to repair anything that requires them to break an FIA engine seal. Given their reliability so far this season, I would rule them out of all betting as they'll be nursing those used engines in every race.


Red Bull are in damage limitation mode again. In Monza however, the likes of Mclaren, Force India, and Renault will all be potential threats. Vettel will be low on confidence and may start feeling the team shifting focus to Webber. He may become desperate, which we've witnessed on far too many occasions this season, so expect a super extra mega crash, or just a piss poor over-driving mistake-ridden weekend!

I do not expect to see a Red Bull on pole this weekend! Now that's a prediction!


Some decent bets I can see right now...

Alonso vs Button - 2.02 @ Bwin
Senna vs Yamamoto - 2.40 @ Bwin
Hulkenberg vs Kobayashi - 2.15 @ Bwin
Alonso vs Webber - 2.20 @ Bwin

Kobayashi in the points - 3.75 @ Paddypower
Petrov in the points - 2.1 @ Bluesq

Sutil practice 1 top 3 finish - 3.5 @ Bwin

[Frodo]

I've been waiting for this one for a while for some Force India related bets. They are supremely fast in a straight line which means they should be competitive in Monza, they appear to suggest they'll struggle to repeat the success of last year but I'm not convinced they're just trying to manage expectation.

McLaren should be the favourites, they have to win here, Lewis has to take a chunk off Webber.

Anyway I digress.

Practice 1 - Fastest Car - Force India 11.0

McLaren have tended to dominate Practice 1 this season and should be even more fancied here but they're an unappetising 4/5 for either Lewis or Jenson to top the session. Intriguingly Force India have managed to take 2 of the 13 practice 1 sessions so far this season so the price is already value and with Sutil at 12 I feel you may as well take teammate Liuzzi (who's capable of springing a surprise) at the marginally shorter price.

[Gavster]

I'm more worried by Ferrari to be honest with you Frodo. Alonso dominated Spa practice 1 & 2 and here in Monza with the weight of expectations placed on them by the Tifosi, Ferrari will probably take the opportunity to do a few glory laps to appease the Italian media.

So on that basis, I might just leave the practice lottery well alone given that the e/w terms are not really profitable or worthy of the risk. The niggling thing in the back of head keeps telling me that Force India were in the top 3 for practice 1 & 2 last year (winning practice 2).

Bollocks to it, I'm going on Sutil e/w @ Paddypower. Liuzzi is the slowest Italian in a car since the time Pavarotti took a trip to Modena Cathedral in a Nissan Dorma!

[Frodo]

Whilst I wouldn't be surprised to see Ferrari try and dominate the practice sessions ifor me it really wouldn't be the wisest thing to do. Both Alonso and Massa have used 7 of their 8 engines already this season, you'd think with Monza being an engine breaker that the 8th would be going in this weekend. Neither can afford to blow one in practice else it's a 10 place grid drop. Also they may need the engine for later in the season. Interestingly Renault have only used 5 so should remain competitive for the rest of the season.

What concerns me about the practice bet is it appears Sutil is looking set to sit out the session with Paul Di Resta being given a crack. Poor research there on my part. My main hope now is that both him and Liuzzi try to out do each other given they're competing for a seat for next season, obviously I'd have been happier with Sutil in the car though.

[Gavster]

Where did you read the Sutil report Frodo? I can't see anything on Autosport. It wouldn't seem logical as Sutil - their only hope of pole and a decent race showing - needs to get the car dialled in. Hmmm, perhaps I'll get non-runner refund if he does sit it out.


edit: Oh cock! I've just seen it in the press conference quotes. Hmmm, but it doesn't say which session

[Gavster]

Well thankfully - paddypower being the nice bookies they are - I got a non-runner refund for my Sutil bet

Not much happened in practice session one, with very little running from the big players. Both Red Bull and Mclaren were running aero tests. I found Button's speed interesting, which could signal a greater result coming from him this weekend. Even so, I believe Hamilton wasn't really throwing everything at his laps, so more to come from him!

The high down-force set up from Mclaren has the potential to go belly up. It's great for late breaking and applying the accelerator sooner on the exit of a corner, but it's costing them 15kph on the straights. I'd like to see what a low down-force setting bring them for practice 2, with possibly a compromise for final set up.

Liuzzi managed a decent time, placing him in 7th overall. I believe Sutil could definitely pinch a top 3 place in practice 2. In fact, Stan James are offering 17.0 for Sutil in this session. Force India ran their high speed program in session 2 at Spa, so I'm hopeful; that is if he's in the car this time. It's suicidal if he isn't!

I've just taken Hulkenberg @ 2.88 (Skybet) to get in the points on top of my earlier bet of Kobayashi @ 3.75 (Bluesq)

There's some big value in Petrov @ 2.1 also. That's too high for a Renault.

[Gavster]

Practice two was a bit all over the shop. Ferrari and Red Bull suddenly showed their pace with some suggesting Webber stopped out on track because he'd run out of fuel; suggesting he was running very light.

Practice three now seems to suggest that it's a straight battle between Mclaren and Ferrari with possibly Vettel spoiling the party. Webber's engine has been given the all-clear, so he's back in with a shout, except I see him having a poor weekend, due to the lack of miles he has been able to put in.

Hamilton is rightly favourite to win the race, but Massa being priced as high as 23.0 seems very generous to me. For pole position, Bet365 have him @ 17.0, again way too high.

If I was going to pick a highest scoring team, I would take Ferrari @ 3.75. The split strategy for Mclaren is worrying and has the potential to cost one of their drivers big time; one mistake from Button would see him struggle in a low scoring position for the rest of the race.

Hulkenberg to beat Barrichello is 2.25 @ hills, that's some good value! In qualifying, it's 2.63 @ Stanjames.

Anyway, there's some value to be found if you have a good look.

[Gavster]

Just to add:

Hulkenberg is 11.0 to get into top 6 @ hills. That is mega! Best value has to be Rosberg top 6, currently 3.5 at bet365.

[Gavster]

Well good weekend so far, just by ignoring the battles at the front!

I think Rosberg is way overpriced being 7th on the grid for a podium finish. He's 251.0 e/w with a few bookies. With Hamilton, Webber and Vettel fighting over the same piece of tarmac early on, it's a punt worth taking.

The Mercedes has been one of the quickest through the first sector too, so Rosberg is easily capable of jumping Vettel and one other if they make a dodgy start.

No other value as far as I can see.

[Gavster]

Sorry, one more here then that's it for the weekend.

Buemi in the points - 5.0 @ Skybet. He's one of the fastest guys in sector one and the fastest car through the speed trap.

[Gavster]

Well done Ferrari. You can't knock Ferrari winning their home race.

As predicted, there were some antics on the first lap that surely cost Hamilton a certain podium. He'll learn! That Rosberg podium wasn't too far fetched in the end, oh well, got him top 6 so not a bad day.

Buemi was running in 10th but Barrichello jumped him in the pits, so that was unfortunate

On to Singapore in two weeks!