Belgian Grand Prix

[Gavster]

After a long and dreary four week break, Formula One returns to the historic Spa Francorchamps circuit for the Belgium Grand Prix.


F1 1998 Spa Francorchamps Big Crash
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The race is notorious for its unpredictable weather, mainly due to the circuit's location in the green Ardennes hills. The forecast is wet for practice and qualifying, but dry for the race. This may change


Following the controversy of the flexible front wings on the Red Bull and Ferrari cars in recent races, the FIA is introducing an improved load test to measure deflection. Something tells me this won't make a blind bit of difference, as the wind load at high speed is at least 150kg. The FIA are only testing 100kg, up from 50kg. Even so, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Red Bull stiffened their wing slightly to past the test.

Mclaren have reported that they have found extra time in their 'blown diffuser' after scrutinising the data from the last race. How much this improves their car remains to be seen, but the track should offer a huge advantage to their F-Duct system. I have the impression their factory has been working like the Nazi war machine over the break! I know they are meant to take an enforced two week break, but you can't tell me there aren't people remotely accessing factory systems to test simulations and design improvements ready to prototype on their return to work. (same goes for Ferrari)

Ferrari have announced a series of further updates for Spa, and I see Ferrari having a decent package this week. Ferrari have won the last three races, so one could argue that the track suits their car.

Renault could be 'best of the rest' having developed the F-Duct and blown diffuser for use on their car. A few strong showings from the team already this season indicate they are close to staking their claim for more podiums.

Williams struggled on the Hockenheim straight, so I expect that Cosworth engine to be outclassed by the Renault this week.

If I was at RedBull, I'd be backing Webber right now; he gets the job done when his younger team mate cracks under pressure.


Webber to win race - 6.0 @ Bwin
Alonso to win race - 4.0 @ various
Massa to win race - 15.0 @ Bluesq ew 1/4 to 3 places (just in case Alonso has a howler)
Kubica to win race - 67.0 @ Bluesq ew 1/4 to 3 places


Top 6 finish

Kubica - 2.5 @ Bluesq
Petrov - 9.0 @ Bluesq


I can't really find much else. It's like the beginning of the season all over again! I will wait until practice one to gauge who might be showing some form.

[Gavster]

Practice One out of the way and not much learnt in the wet conditions. The forecast has changed for the weekend and heavy rain is now expected for Sunday's race, which does add some relevance to today's sessions.

Both Sutil and Kubica have shown good form in the wet. I wouldn't commit to them just yet as the odds are quite short. Interestingly though, Hamilton managed to get 2nd fastest. As previously stated, the Mclaren should not be underestimated given the grunt of the Mercedes engine and the amazing efficiency of their F-Duct system. That said, we still haven't seen what Red Bull have to offer; nor have we seen how much their front wing is deflecting this week!

Continuing on the subject of Red Bull and the questionable legality of a number of their parts. I found it interesting how Christian Horner's apparent fluency in fielding questions suddenly became disjointed and unclear when asked if the Red Bull's floor flexes, and whether it would be altered for the next race to meet FIA tests. I'm not calling the guy a liar, but any change in the fluency of someone's speech when answering questions would generally indicate they were not being entirely forthcoming with the truth.

(Just an observation though)

[Gavster]

Practice two completed and we are finally in the picture as to who is showing good form going into qualifying and the race.

Red Bull haven't figured at all. A brake problem for Vettel and suspected engine trouble for Webber limited the running for both drivers. It's interesting that Red Bull have moved the front wing camera that showed the huge deflection during the last race meeting. Changes? Or sandbagging? Either way, they haven't learnt much about the conditions so far... so advantage Mclaren and Ferrari.

As stated previously, Mclaren are looking quite formidable here. The straight line speed advantage in sectors one and three really throws them into the mix for victory on Sunday. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamilton get a podium this weekend, possibly a win even! The speed advantage in sectors one and three would make it very difficult to defend against!

I'm going Ferrari/Mclaren win, with Kubica coming in the top 6. I haven't seen anything from Red Bull that tells me they are going to be challenging, which is bizarre when you think about it. They must be sandbagging

[Gavster]

Now for some concrete predictions...

Hamilton Pole - 6.50
Hamilton Win - 5.50
Kubica top 6 - 2.35 (already placed)
Koboyashi in the points - 3.25 @ VC (already placed)
De la Rosa in the points - 3.0
McLaren top scoring team - 2.62 @ Bluesq

edit: Alonso vs Hamilton - 2.26 @ Betfair

edit: Hamilton leading after 1st lap - 6.5 @ Skybet

[Frodo]

Good price on the Hamilton pole there, he's a very good shot at it. The McLarens look clearly faster in the first and last sectors it's just whether the Red Bulls can make it up in the middle sector. I get the feeling Ferrari aren't quite dialled in yet but we'll see.

I also fancied the Force India's to go well again here this year but I may keep my fingers crossed that things don't do too well for them in qualifying and Sutil can make the most of the conditions tomorrow. As for qualifying I'll take Kubica e/w at 33's. He's been top 5 in every practice session. The f-duct appears to be working and he looked good in the last wetish qualifying session in Malaysia and should really have been higher.

[Frodo]

3rd for Kubica. Jolly good. Hamilton only denied pole by the late shower, very good effort by him.

[Gavster]

Well my bets placed before qualifying look great for tomorrow.

Kubica top 6 - 2.35
McLaren top scoring team - 2.62
Hamilton leading after 1st lap - 6.5
Alonso vs Hamilton - 2.26

I'm still hopeful Koboyashi will make up some places during the race given that there are lotus' etc out of place.

Nice one on Kubica, Frodo. He's been ace all week!