Hungarian Grand Prix

[Gavster]

I've now drawn a line, and ze German Grand Prix - aside from ze successes - will be forgotten and not mentioned again!

Hungary. Wow! Every time I think about Hungary, I think about Damon Hill nearly winning in the Arrows-Yamaha in 1997. It was a bitter-sweet affair with Hill's car suffering a throttle linkage failure on the last lap after building a commanding lead. That ever inarticulate slob Villeneuve overtook Hill to take the win.

In recent years, Mclaren have dominated the Hungarian podium with Ferrari, but recent weeks have seen Mclaren overtaken in the development race, which has relegated their car to 3rd quickest over a lap. They are still the quickest in a straight line, but when it comes to cornering speed, Ferrari and Red Bull comprehensively rule.

The Hungaroring is narrow, twisty and often dusty because of under-use, which associates the Hungarian Grand Prix with processional races, with cars following one another unable to pass. It can also be very hot leading to cooling problems. Before the FIA introduced engine lifetime regulations, cars were going bang for fun around this circuit, with retirements affecting 1/3 of the grid in some races. We are already aware of the Red Bull cooling issues, so that could be a potential frailty to pay close attention to this weekend. The weather does look cool and moist for this weekend, but that said, Red Bull have issues in getting two cars home in competitive positions anyway!


I don't see much value for this weekend, as the Ferrari surprise has well and truly bolted. Alonso started from pole last year and has won this race before in 2003. I see that undeserving little shit as the potential winner again this week (depending upon reliability).

Alonso to win - 3.0 @ Boylesport
Alonso pole & win double - tbc
Alonso pole, win, fastest lap hatrick - 9.0 @ Skybet
Vettel pole - 3.0 @ Bet365
Vettel win - 3.5 @ Bet365


Value

Massa pole - 12.0 ew 1-3 1/5 @ PaddyPower
Massa win - 12.0 ew 1-3 1/5 @ Boylesport
Webber pole - 5.5 @ Boylesport
Alonso vs Massa - 4.0 @ WilliamHill


I would like to see a market opened for Eddie Jordan's fashion choice...

Mildy fashionable 20.0
Was fashionable some 30 years ago - 4.5
Outrageously unwearable for those with any sense or self worth - 1.01
A cheeky little number that may interest a distinguished one or two - 1.25

[Gavster]

After today's practice sessions, I can be fairly confident in saying that Red Bull seem to be the fastest. Ferrari may be sandbagging a little, but I doubt it!

At this point, I would be tempted to take Webber for the race, as Vettel struggles off the start.

[bettingleague]

It looks like the Red Bulls are quick again, but no value in putting Vettel to get pole, he is odds on.

I think Alonso to be on pole looks good at 4/1 as I think they could be sand bagging. They should be good here. I am tempted to go each way, 1/3 odds for 1st and 2nd.

Hulkenburg to get in the points also looks a good bet at 2.88 with Boylesport.

[Gavster]

Hulkenburg was a decent shout (barring incidents) , but Alonso was never going to get pole though, that was clear after watching practice 2.

The Red Bulls are in a class of their own in that middle sector, so even if Hamilton does take a few places after a blinding start, I fully expect him to lose places again after the round of pit stops.

It could be an interesting race! There's lots of pressure on Vettel to get off the line cleanly. I wonder if he'll try to block Alonso and mistakenly allow Webber through - who's odds are pretty generous at the moment - although, I'd say he'll try and block Webber, giving Alonso a free run up into the first corner for 1st or 2nd place. It's a tight circuit, so a first corner shunt wouldn't surprise me at all.

Safety car deployment - 2.2 @ Stan James
1 first-lap retirement - 4.2 @ Paddy Power
Jenson Button to gain most positions - 7.0 @ BlueSq (amazing value)
Alonso leader after 1st lap - 9.0 @ Paddy Power
Webber leader after 1st lap - 11 @ Betfair (I might just have a bit of that)

I'm just hoping Massa scores heavily and Alonso has a problem - that'll do me!

[Gavster]

Well another cracking race with some decent bets too! Webber came in along with the safety car bet, but I should have learnt my lesson on Button; he's shit!

Just counting on Schumacher getting a good penalty for the next race, that move on Barrichello was a shocker. The guy is a filthy racer, the sooner he realises he's past it the better.

Vettel really must start questioning his decision making, he's just so error prone, but the team should have kept him informed in regards to his distance from the safety car.