German Grand Prix

[Gavster]

I've not had much luck with any bets involving Germans so far this year... so my exploits this week will be limited!

So what did we learn from the British GP?

Red Bull are a troubled team. They've had to dig out the owner Dietrich Massivechitz to diffuse the situation and deny any favouritism from the top. This is a ringing endorsment for Webber though, "Both will be treated absolutely equally by his Formula 1 team - even if there is a risk that the policy costs his team the title."

I laughed so hard I nearly cried when Vettel went off at the first corner - truly great TV! He crowned it with an illegal barging manoeuvre on the final lap against Sutil, which cost me my Mclaren top scorers bet! Bloody Germans!!

Anyway, fortune did play a part in Mclaren's fantastic weekend given the trouble with their car; but this does go to show their race strength. Ferrari on the other hand had a shocker, albeit at the hands of the safety car again.


Thoughts on the German GP

This was a Webber win for Red Bull last year (Nürburgring) and could possibly be a win for that team again this time round. Vettel will have all the pressure of the German media in his mind, and given the recent controversies, he may show signs of buckling. There is something very scrappy and desperate about his driving of late, so I wouldn't be surprised to see another error from the little wretch.

That in my opinion leaves Webber, Hamilton and Button for the win. Mclaren should have cured most of the issues from last week, which saw them remove their upgrades (mostly to suit Jenson may I add). The Mclaren should be in it's element on that long straight, so this could be another decent showing for the team and should certainly allow them to get closer to the Red Bull.

Mclaren - highest scoring team 3.25 @ Sporting Bet

Mclaren - winning car 4.0 @ Bwin

Hamilton/Webber - duel forecast 6.5 @ Paddy Power (Hamilton/Vettel 4.5)


Other Teams

I expect another strong showing from Barrichello, but top-6 was only assured at Silverstone because of a Ferrari balls up and the loss of Kubica. I will probably look at odds of getting through to qualifying 3 and put a few multiples on.

Kubica is 2.37 to be in the top 6 @ Bet365


I will wait until practice for pole position shouts.


Championship Winner (edit)

As you may be aware, Hamilton is about 2.6 to win the championship depending on where you go. Not much value if you want to cover a place or two!

Well, Hamilton is currently 8.0 to win BBC Sports Personality of the Year e/w 1/3 1-2 places with Coral.

To me. that looks a great way of getting a decent return for Hamilton to win the championship given that Hamilton has already been 2nd place twice on SPotY. You still get 2.6 for 2nd place

[Gavster]

Just to add... Ferrari are introducing an updated diffuser for this race amongst other modifications. We may see Alonso challenging for a front row grid slot. The e/w isn't up to much at the moment, but those odds may lengthen a little before qualifying depending on the practice times.

[bettingleague]

Good right up Gavster.

I have to say I am more in line with the McLarens doing well this race and have backed them to be the top point scorer at Blue Square at 3.2. As you say this track will suit the McLarens more than Silverstone, so they will be a bit closer and with the extra 2 weeks testing on the diffuser they should be a stronger team.

I still think Red Bull should get pole as they can hook that car up so well, but they do lack race pace. The weather could cause a few upsets, if it rains you might find some upsets, also some teams may qualify on the hard tyre as this might be the best strategy as the soft tyre is expected to grain after 10 laps, where as at the end of the race it may stay on a bit better as the track rubbers in more. I will be looking at Kubica, Rosberg, Schumacher and Barichello with small each way bets for qualifying as with all these factors it might not be wise going for the favourite Vettel.

Overtaking is possible at the German GP, and this will help McLaren again, esp if we have a dry race. As seen in a few races McLarens seem to have a good race pace.

Looking at the top 6, Kubica and Barichello look the good bets, at 2.37 and 4.

Points and I am looking at Hulkenberg who finished tenth last race and Kobayashi who had a great race last time out.

I am going to keep most bets small for now, as the weather will play an important role.

[Gavster]

Ok, practice 1 finished. We didn't really learn much from that session to be honest. A few decent shouts for the weekend have been presented though:

Ferrari top scoring team - currently about 6.0
Alonso pole position e/w (odds are not showing enough value for a place yet) (EDIT)
Sutil to finish in the top six currently about 3.0
Sutil pole position e/w 101.0 - he's got great speed in the wet and qualifying could be moist!


Hamilton trashed his car. Hopefully they can fix it before practice 2, as it's essential they get the time to dial in that car's set up with the new parts.

[Gavster]

Practice 2 out of the way and things are becoming much clearer. Ferrari have taken a big step forward with their updated diffuser and new front wing; their car seems to be the most stable. When both cars are showing that kind of speed and commitment, you know it's serious pace. Therefore, I'm sure we will see a Ferrari on the front row of the grid tomorrow (provided the rain doesn't intervene).

Red Bull have shown signs that they may be pushing the limits of the car at this track, which makes me further commit to Ferrari for this weekend. Vettel also had to have an engine change. Again this concerns me, are they able to get two cars in the top-4?

Mclaren will be relying on Hamilton again tomorrow. The car was nowhere near the required set up, but once Hamilton was let out onto the track, he immediately banged in some promising sector times. It was sector 3 where he was uncompetitive. Using the small amount of data from those runs, his engineers should be able to set up the car to at least make him able to challenge for a place amongst Ferrari and Red Bull.

If it's wet tomorrow, Sutil might just pose a threat, so on that practice 1 showing I immediately put 0.5pts e/w @ 101.0. He's got some serious wet pace!

If I was betting on pole (which I have ) I'd say Alonso - he's just got it so hooked up! Massa possibly 3rd or 4th. I would possibly go as far to say that Webber will out qualify Vettel too! We'll see!

[Gavster]

Well I got both e/w bets on Alonso and Massa - shame one of them couldn't nail the pole though! Two-thousands of a second difference! I'll say it again - Bloody Germans!!

As for the highest scoring team, well fingers crossed it's Ferrari. I'll be interested to see what happened with Webber's car on the final outing - will parc-fermé rules come into play?

[bettingleague]

Well done Gavster, so close to getting it spot on.

I am having a very quiet weekend, this is so hard to read. I am just wondering if an each way bet on Hamilton to win is worth while as they have a good race car. I can not see myself getting too involved today, I am still not too sure if the Ferrari's have the race pace.

Apart from that, I am just going to let my other race bets ride.

It was a good call on Ferrari, I cant believe only 2 thoushands of a second split them.

[Gavster]

I would be fairly confident in saying that at least one of the Red Bulls will lose a place off the start. Hamilton is amazing off the grid and usually makes up a place or two, so I'd expect him to be challenging for a podium.

17.0 (3.4 placed) is very generous for Hamilton! Not one I'll be taking on though.

Ferrari's race pace was impressive in Valencia if I remember... Alonso was putting the Mclaren and Red bull under serious pressure until the safety car incident.

So I think (and hope) that Ferrari will be pretty damn impressive today. I still don't rule out another major fluff by RedBull - the story has to roll on!

[Gavster]

So Ferrari romped home to a 1-2 finish! Nice!

Must say I'm sickened by the manipulated result - Alonso should have been made to pass Massa fairly and squarely. Ferrari obviously never learnt their lesson in regards to team orders, so I hope the stewards investigate and the media give them hell.

Alonso likes to have victories handed to him on a plate. Hard work doesn't enter his mind. He spat the dummy at Mclaren when Hamilton was beating him, now he's being "helped" at Ferrari.

Give him hell Fleet Street!!

[Frodo]

Disgusting by Ferrari, clear breach of the rules and bringing the sport into disrepute. Withdraw your winnings asap Gav because Alonso should clearly be DQ'd. His lap times were perhaps barely faster than Massa's at best.

Will the FIA do their job, I doubt it.

[Gavster]

This is where Todt's impartiality gets questioned.

I have withdrawn them lol. Like bloody lightning!

The main point is that it was totally unnecessary at this point of the year. Neither driver could stake a serious claim to the title to enforce team orders. And as for Alonso's smug lying in the press conference, all I can say is what a cunt. Wish Dr Cal Lightman was there to interrogate him.

[Gavster]

Ferrari bosses have been called to the race stewards after explicitly denying using team orders to change the result of the German Grand Prix.

Felipe Massa, who was leading the race, slowed down on lap 49 to allow winner and team-mate Fernando Alonso to pass.
Communications director Luca Colajanni said afterwards that the incident was "a driver decision".

"We didn't give any instruction at all. I don't think anything wrong has been done, or regulation breached."
Colajanni added: "Fernando was slightly quicker at that stage, and we informed the drivers."

[Gavster]

$100,000 fine for ferrari. Case referred to the world motorsport council.

That's a cop-out. I'm sure massa and all us fans feel much better for that.

I think Todt has used his influence here.