British Grand Prix

[Gavster]

So here it is, the race that shouldn't have been in Bernie's furtive financially focussed eyes! The British Grand Prix is at Silverstone; a new Silverstone, but Silverstone: the home of British motor sport.

Those who have read the press or these little previews will know that Mclaren have a major upgrade this week, which includes the Redbull blown-diffuser concept amongst a number of performance enhancing parts. The blown-diffuser is worth 0.5 seconds alone, so this week I'm anticipating a performance increase of about 0.6+ sec. Now add this time to the already superior Mclaren F-duct and we have only one winner in my view, barring retirements.

Hamilton seems to be stamping his authority over Button now, who whilst not exactly slow, is a massive improvement over Kovalainen, which should provide better cover for Lewis for the remainder of the season. So what I'm getting at is, Hamilton is the winner out of the two this week unless of course you foresee a retirement.

Hamilton win - 4.3 @ Boyles Sport
Button win - 9.0 @ Bwin
Mclaren to win - 2.9 @ Bwin ****Decent Value****
Hamilton Pole & Win - 4.8 @ Betfair

Pole position to follow, but I see it going to Mclaren.

British Specials @ Coral

Both British drivers to finish in the points 1.33
A British Driver to win qualifying 3.25
Both British Drivers to finish on the podium 3.50
Hamilton King of the Road (Fastest Lap,Win Qualifying,Win Race) 10.00

As for the other teams, I see Redbull performing strongly along with Ferrari. Other than that, I see no surprises. Mercedes had their upgrade last week and arsed everything up. Williams had a strong showing, and it maybe worth placing some bets on a points finish or qualifying 3 showing once the markets open.

Other winners:

Vettel - 4.3 @ Boyles Sport
Webber - 5.9 @ Betfair
Alonso - 7.0 @ Bet365
Massa - 17.0 @ Coral e/w 1-3 1/4 (4.25 podium finish) ****nice value****

That's it for now. Thought I'd get in while the odds were still fairly competitive. Will post more as and when they become available. Must just mention my surprise that Mclaren are not favourites for this race considering the major upgrade!

[Gavster]

Mclaren highest scoring team @ Sporting Bet - 2.3

Mclaren have been top scorers in 5 of the 9 races so far. 55%

Red Bull were top scorers in 3 of the 9 races. 33%

Ferrari were top scorers in 1 of the 9 races. 11%

How the bookies have Red Bull as favourites for this is beyond me considering that Mclaren are the in-form team, having out scored Red Bull in the last 3 races.

[bettingleague]

Hi Gavin,

I dont know if the McLarens are the "in-form team" at the moment, yes they have scored more points but if you look at the last 3 races:

In Turkey Red Bull were first and second and then took each out, they had beaten the McLarens.
The Canadian track favoured the McLarens and the Red Bulls had issues with the car.
Vettel won the last race, but Webber had a shocking race.

If Red Bull could get both the cars home in the position which the car speed merits they should have had two 1-2's out of the last 3 races. The problem with Red Bull is they are not consistant, where as the McLarens are very good at taking points when they have a chance. I dont think their is any value in backing Red Bull here, as they are not reliable enough, but I dont think the McLarens are the in form team.

One thing is for sure, the Red Bulls have a great record of getting on pole this season. Eight out of nine poles this season have gone to Red Bull and with Vettel back on form after changing his chasis (the old one is now being used by Webber after he smashed his car and I do not know the condition of it), the 2.63 that betfred is offering might look short, but I can see value in it. Yes McLaren will be bringing updates like the blown rear diffuser, but how much time will this actually get them. Mercedes brought a whole load of updates for the last grand prix and they went backwards, updates dont always work and with no testing it is hard to count on them.

I agree with backing Williams, the upgrades they had worked really well and apparently more are on the way. Barichello is also a good driver at this track, so I will be looking at backing him for a points or top 6 finish.

[Gavster]

Red Bull in-form?

Don't wish to turn this into a debate, but I think it's rather simplistic to suggest that Red Bull are in fact the in-form team. You have to be in it to win it, and Red Bull haven't been. Their poor reliability and suspect race management means they haven't maximised the competitive advantage their car possesses in the same manner Brawn did last season, so Mclaren have been there to graciously accept where Red Bull have failed.

I do accept that Red Bull's car was - and maybe still is - the most competitive car, but you have to score the points to get prize by being consistent. In qualifying, Red Bull have been devastating. At race-pace however, the Mclarens have kept them honest!

But going back to 2005, Alonso won the championship in the Renault even though the Mclaren car (and driver in my opinion) was superior. But because the reliability and team tactics were so poor, Alonso took the championship even though many thought Raikkonen/Mclaren was the better of the two that season.

As for the race in Valencia.... well the "what if" result is difficult to call given the safety car confusion. Personally, I think without the drive through penalty, Lewis would have romped past Vettel and could have built up enough of a lead to take the 5-second post-race penalty the other drivers suffered. But as I said, that's debatable.


Now on to upgrades and why I think Mclaren should show good strength this weekend.

Mclaren already have superior straight-line speed over every other car on the grid due to the F-duct. No other team can make it work quite like Mclaren; and nor will they! Mclaren's weakness is a slight loss of downforce when compared to Red Bull in high-speed corners. This was visible at Turn 8 in Turkey. The blown diffuser, amongst many other upgrades expected this week will help generate that deficit in downforce lost to Red Bull.


Why do I think it'll start to swing in Mclaren's favour, and why do I trust they'll get it right?

Well you only have to look at last season: they started with a dog of a car that struggled to finish in the top-10 and even top-15. With only half the season gone, they totally reinvented the car and won in Hungary followed by 2nd in Valencia, 1st in Singapore and 3rd in Brazil and Japan. Mclaren's mechanical development is exceptional and second to none. They even have more major upgrades planned for the German GP.


Why it didn't work for Mercedes.

Mercedes' car is just wrong from the start. Well actually, they started well but their first upgrade totally altered the dynamics of the car, which they haven't really got hold of. The blown diffuser was never going to make a major difference for them. I think they have pretty much switched focus to 2011.

[bettingleague]

Some very good and convincing points and I do think there is a chance that you will be right. It just seems that for the last 3 or 4 grand prixs everyone has been expecting the McLarens to improve by a huge amount like they have done in the past, but the Red Bull have still been quicker in most of the races in my opinion as often in races cars don’t show their true pace as they conserve fuel. Remember in Canada when Button looked to be catching Hamilton, Hamilton did a fastest lap and McLaren said to Button the race was over, Hamilton has the pace. Vettel has been driving very well in the last 3 grand prixs and I would not want to oppose him. I predict he will be quick at Silverstone as the circuit should really suit their car. Consistency is the Red Bulls issue, so a bet on pole for the Red Bulls looks good, although after practice I imagine the price will go out.

On the other hand, I really do hope McLaren do win, as I am a big fan. Should be a great race as we could have a few teams competing for the win. McLaren to be the top point scorers might still be worth a punt, as Red Bull do struggle to get both cars to the finish, but I dont think I would want to oppose then at the moment.


Only a few hours until practice and to be honest I have only put a few small bets on, I will be more than happy to eat my words if the McLarens pace looks good, but I am going to wait until tonight or tomorrow morning to decide on my main bets for the weekend.

[Frodo]

I'm one for keeping my powder dry on McLaren for the moment. If they prove themselves there with the Red Bulls on pace this weekend then I think it's one that bodes very well for them for the rest of the season. I'm not a big fan of Hamilton or Button around Silverstone despite Hamilton's brilliant drive in the wet a few years ago. Hamilton has never out qualified his teammate around Silverstone and Button last managed it when he was up against the might of Takuma Sato.

I have to back up bettingleagues shout of Barrichello, mind I've not looked at his prices at the moment. Though he's not in as good a car he's a quicker driver than Button around Silverstone and Williams have taken a step forward relative to those teams around them. More research is also required in Kovalinen given he's out qualified Hamilton 2/2.

[Gavster]

Originally Posted by Frodo

More research is also required in Kovalinen given he's out qualified Hamilton 2/2.

Well that's at the British GP only. But that said, Jenson is providing much better cover/competition for Lewis if not being a little found out of late. Lewis was always miles ahead of Kovi...

2008: Hamilton was placed higher than Kovi in 50% more races, and scored 54% more points.
2009: Hamilton was placed higher than Kovi in 43% more races, and scored 44% more points.

When it comes to poles: Hamilton had 11 over two years compared to 1 for Kovi.

As for the British GP, Hamilton won it from 4th place albeit with help from the rain. But it's probably home GP squits - it happens to the best of them!

Mclaren are stronger and quicker during the race, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if Vettel gets pole. I do still want to wait and see what this new spec Mclaren has to offer though. Signs are good until Hamilton fluffed that last practice run this morning.

In regards to Williams being competitive... well I only see top 6 odds being anywhere near decent value, and even then the chances are rather slim. Everything else is just a waste unless built into a nice little multiple.

[Frodo]

Exactly my point. Kovalainen is nowhere near Hamilton except for Silverstone where he has been faster. That raises a few alarm bells for me and doesn't give me the confidence that Button and Hamilton will get as much out of the car as they would elsewhere. Of course it could just be a case of their past teammates being that much better at Silverstone than anywhere else and it is very easy to argue that that's the case with Barrichello given his much greater experience of the track.

McLaren are of course better in race trim than qualifying but it'll still be a very tough ask to break Red Bulls qualifying dominance here. I do think McLaren's time will come this season, I'm just not as sure it's this weekend, for me it's still more Red Bull's to lose during the race which as you've pointed out they do have previous.

[Gavster]

Well practice 2 over and I'm a little stumped, but fairly sure we still haven't witnessed a true example of Mclaren's speed.

Button is struggling with set up, so I think he may be out of the running. Hamilton however, has shown glimpses of potential, which makes me think they may be sandbagging. I hope!

[Gavster]

All bets are off. Mclaren have done the unthinkable. They've come with an upgrade that for once, doesn't work. They have now removed the blown diffuser and will refit it for the German GP.

If Hamilton can get on the 2nd row, he could jump a Redbull off the start. We'll see!

[bettingleague]

With the McLarens struggling, I have gone for an each way bet on Alonso to get pole position. The odds are 13/1 at Boylesports and i think he has a great chance of getting in the top 3.

[Gavster]

Ahem, as expected, a Redbull has gone bang, smash kersplat

[Gavster]

Good shout on the alonso e/w. Ferrari were always a threat once Mclaren were faltering.

Still like the look off Hamilton off the start!

[bettingleague]

We know the Red Bulls are not that reliable so it may be worth a small bet on Ferrari to be top points scorers at 6 with Blue Square.

Dissapointing qualifying for Hulkenberg, he is currently 25/1 to gain the most places, if Button does mess it up, he might have a chance. I have also gone with Hulkenberg to beat Kobayashi at evens with Sporting Bet.

Barichello looks good to beat Schumacher in the race, Blue Square are offering 1.83. Schumacher is still really struggling to find any pace and is being outclassed by Rosberg.

Will be interesting to see other peoples opinions as I can not see any really good bets for the race. Keeping bets small at the moment and just taking advantage of a few bookies who have outliers.