European Grand Prix - Valencia

[Gavster]

Didn't have time this week to write anything before practice, so I'll give my opinions on what's going on and what qualifying and the race will offer.

Valencia is probably my least favourite. It's boring and the sooner it's dropped the better!

News & Future Speculation

The big news is that Ferrari and Mercedes have installed Red Bull inspired "blown diffusers" this week. The concept works by channelling the car's exhaust gasses down onto the diffuser to generate more down force. This is one reason why the Red Bull car has shown greater agility through tight corner sections of a track and why they can drive flat out around Turkey's turn 8. The downside to this concept is that the rear end of the car can quite literally cook itself, so reliability could play a part this week.


So far this season there have been Red Bull tracks (high downforce circuits) and Mclaren tracks (long straights). The pundits continued speculating today by separating which circuits would suit each car. I'm saying now, totally discount what they say. Red Bull were quick because of their ability to generate more down force, but Ferrari have cured their down force issues by fitting the blown diffuser concept and just look what they are capable of! Mclaren, however, already have the straight-line speed advantage due to their F-Duct, which most other teams have crudely added to their car resulting in only minimal benefits. Mclaren, still ruling on straight-line speed are set to introduce their own version of the blown diffuser at the British GP, in addition to many other enhancements. In my opinion, this gives Mclaren a massive advantage for the rest of the season and pretty much eliminates Red Bull from the running. I now see Mclaren domination with Red Bull and Ferrari battling for 2nd, although I'd say Ferrari might push Mclaren hardest.

When the odds appear for the British Grand Prix, back Mclaren!


Valencia (Qualifying)

Well Mclaren didn't score top in either session today, which was a surprise. I do however think that they are sandbagging. After two 1-2 finishes going into Valencia, which has been argued suits their car more, Mclaren might just have taken the option of leaving a bit more fuel in their tanks, especially considering that Ferrari are running new bits. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mclaren take pole or a front row spot tomorrow just to piss the Italians off a bit more after an already dismal week.

Hamilton Pole - 5.0 @ Stan James 1/5 1-3
Hamilton/Button (straight) a massive 23.0 @ Bwin
Hamilton/Alonso (straight) 11.0 @ Bwin & Hamilton/Alonso (straight) 11.0 @ Bwin

Another interesting contender is Rosberg in the Mercedes, it's showing good pace, but Mercedes tend to be a little off-colour when it matters! Even so, Rosberg pole - 21.0 @ Skybet 1/5 1-3.


The Race

Boring!

No, seriously.... There will be no weather shocks, but if if someone breaks down or misjudges their proximity to the wall, then there may be a safety car deployment (1.91 @ Paddy Power).

Like Monaco, I don't expect much overtaking. I think there was only one passing move last year. If Mclaren get on the front row, I'd expect them to win given their straight-line advantage in the speed traps this morning.

Hamilton to win is 4.3 @ Stan James.
Button is around the 11.0 mark, but don't think he's really showing much form on this track.
I wouldn't bet any money on a Red Bull - their wings have been well and truly clipped for now! (just watch them go and win now)
Rosberg is 26.0 @ Betfred 1/5 1-3, although I'd be tempted to see what happens in practice 3 before backing Mercedes.

[Frodo]

I'm for the 25/1 e/w on Kubica for pole. Second fastest in final practice this is a pure value shout his prices elsewhere range between 8-14/1 and 17's on the exchanges.

Shame they restricted my stake. The price is with Betfred.

[bettingleague]

Hi All,

I agree with you about this being a poor race. Not looking forward to it that much and will probably be flicking between the GP and the cricket. Like your write up, and although my general opinion is not in line I could see this GP go either way.

I am not sure McLaren are quite dominating yet, and this circuit will not help them too much, and looking at the practice times they have not quite got there today, but that is easy to say now we have seen the times. The only thing that could help them is the unreliablity of the Reb Bulls. The Red Bulls are still the quickest in my opinion, so Vettel to be on pole could be a good bet, although that has come right in now. I am worried about the gearbox that wrecked Vettels race last time out, and it has not been replaced, as you would get a 5 grid penalty, so I will not be backing him for the win.

I think Alonso will be quick too, the updates on the car have worked well. I would go for Alonso to win the race, but the 3.75 is not that tempting either. Hamilton has gone out to 6.5 which is now maybe too long, he was 3.75 before practice, but overtaking is difficult so the pole sitter will have a big advantage and his practice times were poor, but you cant rely on these too much. So in summary, I think the bookies have it pretty spot on with the front runners and it may be best to see how qualifying pans out.

I think Massa could be a threat, and with the odds of over 20/1 at betfair, must be worth a punt. He won this race 2 seasons ago. Podium at 3/1 also looks ok. He is also 20/1 for pole which could be a good each way bet.

I am a big fan of Kubica, and I think the 25/1 ew bet is cracking, missed out there, but great value.

Should be an interesting hour.

I also dont know if the safety car will come out, even though the track is a street track, it has long run offs, so less chance of clipping the wall like in Canada. I am pretty sure that last year there were only a handful of retirements. Has a safety car been deployed in this GP?

[bettingleague]

A few bets that stand out, not going to give to much description as short on time.

Trulli to be classified at bet 365 at 1.8. I dont see to many accidents today.
Petrov best of the rest at 7 with bet 365, seems to have done better in this grand prix and has the best car out of this market.
Webber to lead after lap 1, 6 at bet 365, value bet, he will be keen to overtake and this could be his only chance.
Sutil to beat Schumacher, evens at Ladbrokes, Schuie has been poor and his head is down.
Small bet on Kubica to get the fastest lap, got the last one and Renault have got the last 2, good race pace at end of GP, 15 at Ladbrokes.

Sorry for the little amount of reasoning.

[Gavster]

Well the race was slightly more exciting than I predicted, even with a safety car thrown in!

I must admit that I left out a bet on my original post that I thought was pretty interesting. One Redbull car to finish was about 3.0 and I think I'll revisit that for the next GP.

It's difficult to say what would have happened had the safety not been deployed. Would Lewis have been caught by Alonso? Would Lewis have changed his front wing, or would that have been too expensive time wise?

What we witnessed however, was that Lewis could've won the race with a fully functional car. In race trim, that Mclaren is awesome and Lewis ate into Vettel's lead after the drive-through penalty. Ok, Vettel would have been coasting for a little, but there was little he did do to extend his lead; the finishing line couldn't come soon enough!

Mercedes was predictably slow when it mattered. That team really is struggling.

Now wait until Silverstone where Mclaren will shave 0.5 seconds off their lap time with the new upgrades! Mclaren 1-2 at the British GP? - We'll see!