Cycling: Paris-Nice

[a7081543]

Paris-Nice
The first big stage race starts on Sunday. The so-called ‘race to the sun’ is a race that is steeped in history and this year’s route looks as challenging as ever. Furthermore a lot of big Tour contenders are going to be there testing themselves and their form.

My picks:

In any stage race you cannot look past Alberto Contador (Sporting Bet 20/27). Although short priced he is far and away better than any other bike rider at the moment. He proved this at the recent Tour of Algarve and his recents comments to the media look ominous. ...... He is on form and in good condition and therefore nobody will be able to match him on the key mountain top stage finish. He will want to prove what happened last year where he came second after ‘bonking’ (not eating enough during a stage and therefore running out of energy to stay with the main attacks) is a distant memory.

Although it is worth pointing out that being a short week long race the time gaps are not big between the top ten. The time trail is short and the stage are hilly nut hugely mountainous bar one mountain top finish. Therefore there is good value to be had backing some riders each way for a top 3 finish on the overall general classification. One rider who has a good chance is Samuel Sanchez (19/1 Bet 365). He always good on hilly races and especially on the descents. He is focusing his season round the Tour de France this year and therefore will want to be in good shape here and challenging up at the top of the General Classification. Although the caisse d’aparigne duo of Valverde and LL Sanchez will be stiff opposition I can’t see both of them getting in the top 3.

The French riders always are meant to do well in this home race of theirs but I feel on the GC they will not be up there. Instead they may have to rely on stage wins. For a rank outsider for the top 3 I am going for Simon Gerrans of Team Sky. This is a gamble at 80/1 (Bet 365) so I would not put much on him. The reason for backing him is that this is the first time he has really tried at placing well overall in a week long stage race. Normally he is a rider who looks for stage wins but getting in early attacks holding off the peloton and winning the sprint against his fellow escapees. I fancy him to prove himself in this race. He has the support of a very strong team who are high on confidence and furthermore the route suits him as there is only one mountain top finish. He has played down his chance of pulling out a special result in this race but I remember Mark Cavendish saying something similar before the Milan-San Remo last year so perhaps he is just trying to keep the pressure off from the press.

Last week I discover the joys of live betting on cycling through a very good blog about cycling betting called “Velo Tips”. Bet 365 are the only bookmakers at the moment who I have found other this but it is good fun and a place to make some money if you can read a race well. For example on Sunday they were the 3 escapees at 19/1 to win the race when it was quite clear that they were not going to be caught. I hope they will be offering it on the Paris-Nice as well but maybe they only do it on big one day races. If they do offer it back G Thomas for Sunday’s Prologue. He has built his whole early season preparation around this prologue and it is a keep point for him in his training for the Pursuit at the World Track Championships coming soon. Also Sky are revolutionising the way to tackle Time Trials as seen by the team win in Qatar and Boasson Hagen win in Oman. I can see them winning a lot of these throughout the year.

[Frodo]

Nice write-up. Better than the good velotips site IMO.

I'll keep an eye out for Sanchez's odds. Bet365 are currently the stand out odds but they don't like me very much so I'll hope for a few more books to appear. I like the Thomas shout too fingers crossed some odds appear for that.

Saw a bit of the tour down under and thought on his breakaway Valverde looked very strong, resisting the main bunch for so long and giving Sanchez a chance. I don't see him sticking with Contador though.

[a7081543]

Cheers
I think you maybe confusing Samuel Sanchez (my tip) with Luis Leon Sanchez (who did well at the TDU). Both are racing at Paris-Nice and will both be up there. Sammy Sanchez is listed at 20/1 at Sky Bet. Thomas is available at 80/1 at Bet 365 only. Maybe to long for him the prologue due to hills and cobbles but we will see

[Frodo]

I knew which one you meant though admittedly I did have to double check which Sanchez was which. Sorry my post is probably pretty confusing calling them both Sanchez.

Unfortunately Sky like me even less than Bet365 so I'll have another look after the prologue. Good luck with the bets though.

[a7081543]

Well not too bad. Contador won by but by only by 11 seconds so it was a bit to close for my liking. Sammy Sanchez finished 5th just five seconds off 3rd place so that was a tough one. He placed a strong attack on today's stage but it just did not stick. Gerrans struggled a bit and finished 15th but he was always going to be a long shot. Look out for him in the ardennes classics though. Up next Milan-San Remo next weekend which is looking very tough to call

[ONEDUNME]

Nice stuff there chap

Not sure how many cycling fans we have in the woodwork but hopefully you can draw some interest here