F1 season 2010/11

[Gavster]

Formula 1 - World Drivers Championship 2010


Alonso, Fernando 16/5
Hamilton, Lewis 4/1
Schumacher, Michael 4/1
Vettel, Sebastian 5/1
Massa, Felipe 7/1
Button, Jenson 14/1
Webber, Mark 20/1
Rosberg, Nico 22/1
Kobayashi, Kamui 50/1
Kubica, Robert 50/1
Hulkenberg, Nico 80/1
Barrichello, Rubens 80/1
De La Rosa, Pedro 125/1
Petrov, Vitaly 125/1
Sutil, Adrian 150/1
Glock, Timo 200/1
Trulli, Jarno 200/1
Kovalainen, Heikki 300/1
Buemi, Sebastian 300/1
Senna, Bruno 300/1
Liuzzi, Vitantonio 300/1
Di Grassi, Lucas 400/1
Lopez, Jose Maria 500/1
Alguersuari, Jaime 500/1

I see no value in this, at least until the bookies relax the odds on a car not performing very well. Now I loath Button. I think he's a champagne swilling playboy who drives a fast car averagely. He is the only value at this point though. The testing times for him are encouraging - but here's the point: it's only testing.

I definitly see the Massa/Alonso battle developing nicely. I think Alonso will spit his dummy again as Massa is well loved at Ferrari. Massa could well come out on top there, given that he has spent a few seasons with Raikkonen (who is surely better than Alonso).

P.S we need a chequered flag on the icons!

[Frodo]

I think Webber is better value than Button. Last year McLaren were easily the slowest of the big team to adapt to the rule changes, the seasons when they started ahead of the game were the Adrian Newey years. Newey is now at Red Bull, so they should be there or thereabouts but with the new points system placing a great emphasis on winning races I reckon it will probably favour drivers like Vettel rather than the consistent types like Button and Webber who may struggle to win races. Mind you one thing Webber has in his favour this season is he comes into it fit rather than with a broken leg.

Any bet is a total shot in the dark at this stage with teams still trying to find out the optimum strategy and manage their tyres best. Though it has to be said Schumacher's price is ridiculously short, hopefully his presence will inflate others prices throughout the season.

One thing is for sure, without re-fuelling strategy to worry about we may well see who is the man when it rains.

[Quandram]

A rain duel between Schumacher, Vettel & Hamilton would be a beautiful thing.

First things first, if I won the lottery tonight (or even the Euro last night, not checked) i'm sticking half of it on laying that Schumacher price, absolutely absurd. The car had a head start last year with the double defuser and after that was eaten they struggled. Less folk and less time spent designing this motor, I just don't see it.
As Frodo says actually back folk is a shot in the dark at this stage.

Tyre wear will be crucial which is what could make someone like Button look appealing as he's as smooth as they come. He's not as quick as Lewis in the same machinery IMO but if Lewis chews his tyres then that could be the ball game.

Massa is known, apparently (and how the fuck this works i've no idea), to consume more petrol than most. Could mean he has to start heavier and that wont help his cause.

I'm fascinated to see how the pit stops are going to work. With re-fueling some teams got very slack on tyre changing as opposed to the old days when McLaren were regularly 4.x seconds for tyres and I'm sure I saw a 3.x once. Any teams that are in the high 6's or worse will be throwing huge time away.

New tyres also used to make a massive difference to lap times and I can't see it being as big a factor now due to the developments in them. That tied in with pit-lane speed limits which mean the benefit has to be even bigger to make it worthwhile and we are once more back at favouring those who are smoother on their rubber.

I'm not getting involved yet but if I were then with no real proof of speed from the cars it's only Webber & Button who i'd consider at this stage and that's purely on the fact their prices shouldn't be that much bigger than their team mates.

Spreads have Schumacher 4th and it's not as over hyped insane as I'd have liked but the sell is still a consideration.

Schumacher not to win a race 7/2 - that has definite appeal to me. I can't see that his car is going to be faster than Ferrari, McLaren or Red Bull. That makes it 6 drivers in my mind who have to bite it for him to come through. Now he is brilliant certainly but he's also old and rusty. Wet races would be the obvious concern here but I don't think he faced a single driver (except the small cross-over he had with Senna) as good in the wet as either Lewis or Vettel.

Right now I can't see me not being on that price.

[Frodo]

Just the one for me in qualifying.

Nico Hulkenberg to beat Pedro De La Rosa @ 1.95 - Boylesports. I think the Williams is slightly faster than the Sauber, if it doesn't turn out that way then I think Hulkenburg is definitely the faster driver. He's my one to watch for this season, he dominated the GP2 series last season and his rise through the ranks is comparible with Lewis Hamilton who turned out ok.

Bet365's 11/8 on Schumacher out qualifying Nico Rosberg is a risk, Rosberg is someone who always goes well in practice sessions but drops back into the pack in qualifying. Schumacher was only a tenth behind him in final practice this morning. I can see him turning that round. The best I can get is 6/5 with Bwin which is closer to the mark.

[Frodo]

Hulkenburg 13th
De La Rosa 14th



Four tenths clear. And that's even with Hulkenburg arsing up his last sector. With that in mind the half a second between him and Barrichello I don't think accurately reflects their relative pace hopefully the bookies will disagree with me.

[yorkieacer]

Get in there Vettel on pole, I was saying to my stepdad Ferrari wouldnt get pole. I actually said Rosberg but never mind i dont know who is with which teams this year.

[Frodo]

I did a tipster thing for my sisters work.

Went
1.Massa
2.Alonso
3. Vettel

for qualifying and

1.Alonso
2.Massa
3.Hamilton

for the race

So not a bad effort. In the race Vettel I think will lunch his tyres early and it'll be advantage Ferrari. Look to the drivers on the hard tyres from 11th backwards possibly coming through as the others who didn't end Q3 on the hard tyres will need to pit early.

Amazing qualifying though, looking at the first sector times, 6 drivers did a 30.4!! Just re-invested some of the Hulkenburg winnings on Massa at 8/1 for the title. Great to see him back and he's not lost any of his pace.

[yorkieacer]

Id lay Vettel to win tomorrow now if you can, The Ferraris will catch him tomorrow

[Frodo]

On to Australia and one early take for me.

Vettel for pole 15/8, with Webber covering the stake. This is basically backing Red Bull who had around 0.3-0.5 in hand over the best of the rest Ferrari's in qualifying in Bahrain. In years gone by the first race form tends to hold up pretty well for the first 4 races when the european races begin and teams introduce sometimes significant improvements, also with no fuel strategy to employ this should in theory increase the predictbility of qualifying.

You can get 11/10 on a Red Bull pole but Vettel is the man more likely for me and I'm happy to just use teammate Webber @ 7/1 to cover the stake.

[yorkieacer]

Originally Posted by yorkieacer

Id lay Vettel to win tomorrow now if you can, The Ferraris will catch him tomorrow

God knows who im going to go for this weekend though

[Frodo]

Well Yorkie, if we're going to brag.....

Originally Posted by Frodo

I did a tipster thing for my sisters work.

Went
1.Massa
2.Alonso
3. Vettel

for qualifying and

1.Alonso
2.Massa
3.Hamilton

for the race

Lucious Liz gets the job done..

Vettel P1, Webber P2 this morning.

[Quandram]

Well Jenson has impressed me there. Not devastatingly quick but the smoothness let him keep it all together and I didn't think he had the balls or the wet driving ability (arguable that he didn't as he binned it first corner) to make the early change to slicks. Had he not binned it he'd have had Vettel legitimately rather than benefiting from the Red Bull reliability issues.

Lewis made the good early move on Button but the way he lost it mentally at the end and started arguing on the radio over strategy cements my feelings about him. Prick.

Biggest lesson learnt from that GP? Get up when the fucking alarm goes. Joined the race 3 laps in and was still getting my shit together (injecting caffine in to bloodstream) when Button changed tyres (tried to get on him at 25's but too slow).

[Frodo]

Just watched the re-run as I was too pissed to watch the live race.

Cracking race. So many good drives. I think you saw the difference between Hamilton and Button there, Button had the composure to make a brilliant decision on the pit stop just after Hamilton had passed him, whereas Hamilton threw a hissy fit at the end. He did have every reason to be pissed off because the team ultimately fucked up his strategy and only the Red Bull's could come close to matching him on raw pace throughout the race.

Feel a bit for Vettel who IMO would've walked the race had Lucious Liz not let him down again. Very happy with my Massa bet too, he was massively out of sorts all weekend and still bagged a podium.

[Frodo]

Rain predicted for 4pm Saturday which is qualifying time. Whether it arrives in time I'm not sure but I'll have interest stakes on Sutil @ 95 on Betfair. He's got a far more competitive car than in the past and with a bit of luck could challenge for pole.

Shame Trulli is in a slow car at the moment he was always good to oppose in the wet.

[Quandram]

Originally Posted by Frodo

Shame Trulli is in a slow car at the moment he was always good to oppose in the wet.

I've been thinking about this for a while and I've absolutely no idea why you added the words "in the wet"