Welsh Open 2010

[Pete89]

Welsh Open stats Proper next week.

Betfair screeny:

[Pete89]

Quite fancy a punt on Williams outright, he played well last week and as done quite well in Group 4 of the Championship beating Allen, Ebdon and Carter over the best of 5 format, with a disapointing loss coming from chinese Wonderkid Wenbo, and a defeat to Robertson, who finally found some form in Group 4 (after entering the competition in Round 2)

I'll probablly wait for Sporting Index to price it up then look at some outsiders.

[Pete89]

A couple I fancy at very big prices. I'll post up tomorrow with my full thoughts.

[Pete89]

First the draw:

Draw Sheet

Looking for huge outsiders who have decent draws and can get through the first few rounds I came across Tony Drago who I have just backed for £2 at 400 on betfair at is avalible at 400/1 with skybet.

Tony has qualified from round 1 winning 5-3, 5-2, 5-2, 5-2 and faces Welshman Ryan Day in the first round who has an poor record in his home patch and succumed in the first round last year to Micheal Judge. In Round 2 he will face either Steven Hendry or Dave Harold which I would again expect him to see off, before and eventual likely clash with Neil Robertson, where I hope to get a good lay.

[Pete89]

Day 1, 1pm:

Starting with the last qualifier, Matthew Stevens 4/9 v Barry Pinches 2/1

Nothing to get excited about here as they last qualifier is played this afternoon, with the Winner playing Murphy tomorrow. Stevens should win this comfertably, although perhaps not to merit at interest at 4/9

Now on to the first round Proper.

Robertson 1/6 v Song 5/1

Again not one for me to be getting involved with on the outright, however if you like the handicap then you could try Robbo -2.5 at 8/11, the match is best of 5, so as long as Song doesn't win 3 your good to collect.

Ebdon 8/13 v Hawkins 5/4

Hawkins leads the H2H here 4-1 and yet he is still hard to fancy. I have a plan here though you see, I'm going to take the 6/4 over at betfair on hawkins, and request the same again on Ebdon, its fucking genious as this one will be back and forth like a yo-yo and will be 5-3 or 5-4 either way.

7pm

Carter 4/11 v Davis 5/2

Carter won this vent last year, but anyoe who watched him last week over the best of 5's would have been happy opposing him. For that reason I'm going to have an interest on the opponent at 3.55. Darth Mavis should be capible of overcoming Ali if he comes with the same performance as of late, at is perhaps too generous, although not one to fill yer boots.

Fu 4/7 v Higginson 7/4

The two met here three years in there one and only meeting and it was Higginson who took the first round match before finishing eventual runner up. Fu is perhaps value at 4/7, but its not for me so I wont be having an interest.

Summary:

Robertson -2.5 8/11
Hawkins 6/4 (trade out in running)
Davis 5/2
Fu 4/7

[FC Basher]

Ive gone for Mark Williams,tough field this tourney but hes a value price.14s with Ladbrokes,think you could have got 16s.1.5pt single.

[Pete89]

Aye I took him at 14/1 with betfred to break a 10er for the bus.

[Pete89]

Cuetips is doing free access to Welsh open info and stats:

Cuetips - Welsh Open

[Pete89]

Robertson game here:
Watch Live Snooker Welsh Open Online Video Snooker - Other

[Pete89]

Matched on Ebdon. 76p up

[Pete89]

Hawkins took ebdon 5-0. Shouldn't have bothered with the ebdon bet.
Robertson won 5-2 to land the handicap

hopefully we'll have an equally successful evening.

[Pete89]

Well that was poor. Carter 5-1 and then Fu got turned over too

[Pete89]

Day 2, 1pm

Mark Allen 2/5 v Tom Ford 5/2

This is a no bet for me. its 2-0 to Allen in the head to heads and I can't see Ford turning it around. but at that price theres no value in it for me.

Mark King 8/13 v Marcus Campbell 6/4

Did you know that Marcus Campbell once bet Steven Hendry 9-0 in Hendrys prime? That, along with hos 147 the other year would be the highlight of the scots career (the furthest he's made it is the quarters of a ranked event) However King is 16th is the world and hence bottom of the seeded players. Which is why I think the prices here are spot on. and with nothing extra to be squeezed from the exchanges, I have to settel for another no bet.

Ronnie O'Sullivan 1/5 v Stuart Bingham 4/1

Is Ronnie really bothered playing all week for an extra £30,000 if he wins the thing? That would last him a day on the talc, so probably not IMO. So I'm on Bingham at 6.0 on betfair. if he gets a good start I can always get out, and when does ronnie ever start strong?

3pm

Shaun Murphy 2/5 v Matthew Stevens 5/2

Murphy should probably dispatch Stevens here, but at that price he's too unreliable. No bet

Steven Maguire 1/3 v Dominic Dale 3/1

For me this game is Maguire all over. I expect Maguire to win somthing this year, not this tounament, but he's improving. 1/3 while not generous, is a banker.

7pm

Gentlemen it's D-Day. Today live on BBC2 Wales and on the BBC Website:

Ryan Day 1/5 v TONY DRAGO 5/1

Thats right folks its the match I've been waiting on. And I'm going to be Backing Drago. I suggest you do too.

Day may lead Drago 2-1 in the head to heads, but he is playing terribly, where as Drago was winning all last week and should continue into this week. Goodbye Ryan, at least you've not got far to get home.

Steven Hendry 1/2 v Dave Harold 7/4

I always see Hendry at short prices in games like this and wonder why. The exchanges arent much better going 8/15 and 9/5 theres not really much roth an interest. so I'll probably leave it.

[Pete89]

Summary:

Bingham 4/1 - 1pt
Maguire 1/3 - 2pt
Drago 5/1 - 5pt

[Pete89]

Drago lead all the way, only to lose 5-4. I would have layed off when he went odds on in running too, but I was afk.

anyway pish day yesterday, today should be better.

Day 3, 1pm

Ding 4/7 v Cope 13/8

Its 2 a piece on the Head to head, and it should be an evenish game. Cope might just edge it, and is too big in what should be about 6/5ish, (and at 9/5 on betfair is a good bet) so I'll have an interest.

Perry Evs v Dott 9/10

At odds against I'd be looking to take Dott, who trails 2-3 on the head to head, as it is though i cant be tempted by even 11/10 on Perry so I wont touch it.

Williams 2/7 v O'Brian 3/1

I fancy Williams to win this, but I dont fancy a bet. over the years its been 5-4 to Williams between these too. Williams was in cracking form at the masters, but I cant see any value in him at 2/7, and so I'll just cheer him on for my outright.