Wimbledon 2005

[kompressaur]

Add your links to the thread and i'll add them here.

Federer is a certainty aint he?

[runtcrab]

VC Bet have cut Xavier Malisse and Robin Soderling’s respective Wimbledon odds after the pair produced impressive displays on grass this week.

Malisse was cut from 100s to 50/1 after pushing Lleyton Hewitt over three tight sets at Queens Club while Soderling was chopped from 150s to 66/1 after the tall Swede gave world No1 Roger Federer a fright at the Gerry Weber Open.

”Malisse looked very dangerous against Hewitt and is possibly returning to his 2002 grass form when he made the semis at Wimbledon,” said VC Bet’s tennis judge Ivan Stojanovic.

”And Soderling played some really good aggressive tennis against Federer to get within two points of winning the match.

”The key to beating Federer on grass is to keep him away from the net as much as possible and it looked like Soderling did just that.

”He seems to thrive on courts with low bounce and could be a live dangerman in a couple of weeks.”

Federer remains the firm’s 4/7 favourite to make it a hat-trick of Wimbledon titles.

Aussie Open champion Marat Safin has seen some lumpy each-way support this week at 33/1.

[Beanie]

Good stuff runtcrab.

To counter that, Soderling crashed out of the Ordina open today, losing in 3 sets to Kohlschreiber. :think

I think this weeks tournaments offer some superb laying opportunities as well for Wimbledon...there's quite a few who have been well below par, and on such form will struggle at Wimbledon. Will get a better picture by the weekend.

[runtcrab]

What do u think of Federer Beanie? Is he worth a lay at those odds?

[Beanie]

I've only really gotten into tennis betting in this last year, but its been fairly obvious(even to casual observers) that Federer has been awesome.

I don't think he's prone to slipping up to a nobody/also-ran(like Hewitt did v Karlovic a few years ago), nor just a huge server, as he's shown he can deal with that, so that just leaves him to deal with those with a bit of class.

Lets look at the top 10 seeds...(there are others like Stepanek who could pose a few problems, but only on a Federer off day)

1. FEDERER, Roger (SUI)
2. RODDICK, Andy (USA)
3. HEWITT, Lleyton (AUS)
4. NADAL, Rafael (ESP)
5. SAFIN, Marat (RUS)
6. HENMAN, Tim (GBR)
7. CANAS, Guillermo (ARG)
8. DAVYDENKO, Nikolay (RUS)
9. GROSJEAN, Sebastien (FRA)
10. ANCIC, Mario (CRO)

Federer can make mincemeat of most of them on grass...take a player like Henman - he simply doesn't have a clever enough serve/volley game to trouble Federer who can pass Henman all day. Safin on his day has the potential, but his form/termperament is a bit too erratic to place money on. Can't see Nadal being any sort of opposition to Fed on grass. Hewitt has struggled v Federer in recent years, and his form at Queens (pushed hard by Malisse and knocked out by Karlovic) suggests he hasn't recaptured his No.1 form by any means.

That leaves Roddick really - but he is another who just hasn't been able to touch Federer in the last couple of years. He wasn't bad winning Queens, and will have the desire, but it would still require a huge improvement in Roddicks game. Further, if we consider Roddick to be the danger, it would be better waiting till the final to lay Federer when his odds would be far smaller.

So I think its best to take the idea of laying Federer on a game to game basis, rather than just for the tournament. Lets say he runs up against Karlovic - that might then offer a lay prospect, as it is within Karlovic's abilities to maybe squeeze atleast 3 of 5 sets to TB's, and then he would just need to win them. No easy task, and he's usually out of a set if he is broken, but he is serving very well just now (something like 24-0 in the ace count v Ljubicic today.)

Laying Federer could be profitable(at the very least losses will be small) but I would take it on a game to game basis.

[runtcrab]

VC Bet have cut Croatian giant Ivo Karlovic’s Wimbledon odds from 150s to 33/1 after an impressive effort at Queens Club.

The massive serving 26-year-old saw off Lleyton Hewitt and Thomas Johansson in South Kensington before falling to Andy Roddick in the final.

”Given a favourable draw I’ve seen enough to convince me that he has a realistic chance of going a long way at Wimbledon next week,” said VC Bet’s tennis compiler Ivan Stojanovic.

”His serve is a huge weapon and that makes him a man to fear.”

The firm have also cut Australian Open champion Marat Safin from 33s to 20/1.

”He took a set off Federer in the final at Halle last week and looks to be running into some competitive grass form.

"He’s a big liability for us because he was laid heavily at 33s earlier this month.”

[runtcrab]

Mens Wimbledon Draw 2005

1) Roger Federer (Swi) v Paul-Henri Mathieu (Fra)
Ivo Minar (Cze) v Michal Tabara (Cze)
Joshua Goodall (GB) v Alessio Di Mauro (Ita)
Julien Benneteau (Fra) v (25) Nicolas Kiefer (Ger)
(23) Juan Carlos Ferrero (Spa) v Qualifier
Thomas Enqvist (Swe) v Hyung-taik Lee (Kor)
Florian Mayer (Ger) v Santiago Ventura (Spa)
Fernando Verdasco (Spa) v (13) Tommy Robredo (Spa)
(11) Joachim Johansson (Swe) v Albert Montanes (Spa)
Alberto Martin (Spa) v Greg Rusedski (GB)
Jose Acasuso (Arg) v Tomas Zib (Cze)
Alan Mackin (GB) v (21) Fernando Gonzalez (Chi)
(31) Mikhail Youzhny (Rus) v Marcos Baghdatis (Cyp)
Oscar Hernandez (Spa) v Jean-Rene Lisnard (Fra)
Jonas Bjorkman (Swe) v Qualifier
Scott Draper (Aus) v (8) Nikolay Davydenko (Rus)



(3) Lleyton Hewitt (Aus) v Christophe Rochus (Bel)
Jan Hernych (Cze) v James Blake (USA)
Qualifier v Qualifier
Sargis Sargsian (Arm) v (29) Nicolas Massu (Chi)
(24) Taylor Dent (USA) v Qualifier
Kevin Kim (USA) v Alex Bogdanovic (GB)
Qualifier v Tomas Berdych (Cze)
Lars Burgsmuller (Ger) v (16) Mariano Puerta (Arg)
(10) Mario Ancic (Cro) v Qualifier
Qualifier v Stefan Koubek (Aut)
Gael Monfils (Fra) v Olivier Rochus (Bel)
Cyril Saulnier (Fra) v (22) Dominik Hrbaty (Svk)
(26) Feliciano Lopez (Spa) v Bjorn Phau (Ger)
David Sherwood (GB) v Ricardo Mello (Bra)
Karol Beck (Svk) v Mark Philippoussis (Aus)
Paradorn Srichaphan (Tha) v (5) Marat Safin (Rus)


(7) Guillermo Canas (Arg) v Qualifier
Max Mirnyi (Bel) v Rainer Schuettler (Ger)
Stanislas Wawrinka (Swi) v Fabrice Santoro (Fra)
Peter Wessels (Ned) v (28) Jiri Novak (Cze)
(19) Tommy Haas (Ger) v Janko Tipsarevic
Qualifier v Qualifier
Andrei Pavel (Rom) v Qualifier
Bohdan Ulihrach (Cze) v (12) Thomas Johansson (Swe)
(14) Radek Stepanek (Cze) v Robby Ginepri (USA)
Andrew Murray (GB) v Qualifier
Karol Kucera (Svk) v Luis Horna (Per)
Raemon Sluiter (Ned) v (18) David Nalbandian (Arg)
(27) Richard Gasquet (Fra) v Philipp Kohlschreiber (Ger)
Sjeng Schalken (Ned) v Potito Starace (Ita)
Felix Mantilla (Spa) v Gilles Muller (Lux)
Vincent Spadea (USA) v (4) Rafael Nadal (Spa)
(6) Tim Henman (GB) v Jarkko Nieminen (Fin)
Nicolas Almagro (Spa) v Dmitry Tursunov (Rus)
Alexander Popp (Ger) v Jerome Haehnel (Fra)
Wayne Arthurs (Aus) v (32) Filippo Volandri (Ita)
(17) David Ferrer (Spa) v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (Spa)
Juan Monaco (Arg) v Qualifier
Victor Hanescu (Rom) v Kenneth Carlsen (Den)
Michael Llodra (FRa) v (9) Sebastien Grosjean (Fra)
(15) Guillermo Coria (Arg) v Tomas Behrend (Ger)
Jonathan Marray (GB) v Xavier Malisse (Bel)
Alex Calatrava (Spa) v Qualifier
Jurgen Melzer (Aut) v (20) Ivan Ljubicic (Cro)
(30) Robin Soderling (Swe) v Igor Andreev (Rus)
Davide Sanguinetti (Ita) v Qualifier
Qualifier v Ivo Karlovic (Cro)
Jiri Vanek (Cze) v (2) Andy Roddick (USA)

[Beanie]

Cheers runtcrab.

Interesting draw which I'll try and get right into tomorrow.

Good draw for the Brits - don't think Henman will have much trouble dealing with Niemenen. Grosjean could well undo him in the later rounds though. Rusedski will be happy to be up against clay courter Martin, but you'd expect Johansson to deal with him later on. Andrew Murray cramped up badly at Queens last week, and simply doesn't have the stamina for 5 sets battles, but I think we can expect him to give everything in the first match, and have a good chance, and then exit in the second.

Nothing much to trouble Federer in his quarter.

Really interesting one though is the potential Roddick v Karlovic draw in the 2nd round. Both must be a little disappointed with that draw, and it might well take away the chance to make some money with Karlovic next week.

:think

[runtcrab]

I think I saw that Federer has won his last 29 matches on grass i think?

Im not up on my tennis really, but who would you say are the big servers and have the game to test the great man? Nadal is hot at the moment but does he gave the game on grass?

Andy Roddick is obviously one, but I'm thinking of those further down the coupon who have strong service games and could be in with a sniff. what about Karlovic @ 33/1 if he can overcome Roddick, Ljubecic @ 40/1etc?

[Beanie]

A big server like Max Mirnyi who is bang on form can certainly cause Federer a few problems, like Karlovic. Both are playing well just now. The problem is them getting to face Federer, as it would have to be in the final. Mirnyi could be picked off well before then. I'm thinking he has every chance to outmuscle 7th seed Canas, and that could be a cracking bet if it comes along, but his problems will be against someone like Haas, who leads 7-1 on H2Hs.

So in the top half, if you're looking for a big serving threat at the slightly longer odds, Safin could be the pick. He has a slightly tough draw, but will be expected to deal with Srichaphan and Beck or Phillipousis, although he might find it easier v Philipoussis. The problem then is Feliciano Lopez, who could be a tricky proposition. I'd be more concerned about that game than any potential tie v Ancic or Hewitt...and given Safin's temperament it can often depend on what side of bed he gets out of, but if he gets through the early few rounds in good form, I'd fancy his chances to set up a meeting with Fed.

Safin can beat Federer on grass(we saw a few glimpses last week in Halle) whilst players like Feliciano Lopez, Ancic, Hewitt just aren't showing enough form to justify much hope.

Karlovic can beat Roddick. He'll struggle to break him(as was evident at Queens) but likewise as long as his serve is functioning well he can force tiebreaks, where his aces and first serves give him every chance. At the very least we could well see value in his odds v Roddick, and likewise his tournament odds. Given Ljubicic struggled v big serving Hanescu this week, he wouldn't relish a Karlovic meeting.

Nadal can be counted out of this tournament. He is every bit the clay court player, and is yet to get to grips with grass. He built a 24 match winning streak on clay(including the French open) only to lose it to Waske on grass in Germany last week, and that says it all. He himself is quoted as saying:

"I'm going to go to Wimbledon to enjoy myself and do my best, but I know that it's a very tough tournament and it isn't the best surface for me.

"My intention is to go there and learn so that one day I'll be able to do something big there."

If anything, he's worth laying.

I'll take a proper look tomorrow though at the longer odds to see if I can come up with something more useful.

[runtcrab]

Wimbledon 2005 Preview

Inaccurate weather forecasts and over-priced strawberries can only mean one thing - the return of Wimbledon. The bookies have made Federer clear favourite to lift the men's title for the third year in a row, but let's face it, it wouldn't be Wimbledon without the odd upset.

In the men's draw, four of the five top seeds have won a Grand Slam and also been ranked World Number One at some point. Roger Federer, the defending champ and current Number One, may be the hottest odds-on favourite in years to lift the trophy, and the draw's been kind to the Swiss maestro. He shouldn't even have to break sweat to reach the quarter-finals.

In contrast, second seed Andy Roddick can't be thrilled at the prospect of a potential second round meeting with giant Croatian Ivo Karlovic, a repeat of the Stella Artois final. Sporting Index are offering Ace Supremacy and Total Aces markets throughout the tournament - it'll be interesting to see what their predictions are for that particular match!

French Open champion Rafael Nadal may not yet have reached number one, but is sure to catch the public's attention, despite being somewhat of an unknown quantity on grass. The Spanish prodigy's incredible speed and retrieval skills may prove insufficient on grass when exposed to a specialist's serve and volley tactics. However a fair draw has given him a chance to adapt in the early rounds, before a potential meeting with yet another exciting teenage prospect - Richard Gasquet - in Round 3.

Wimbledon champ of 2002, Lleyton Hewitt, has a tricky quarter of the draw to negotiate with Safin, Ancic, and a returning Philippoussis to contend with. The Aussie could be in for a very tough tournament, and it won't be a surprise to see him heading home early.

Tim Henman will be hoping for faster conditions than recent years - perhaps the All-England Club's new policy of opening the balls on court, rather than a week before, could do the trick for a British victory! Yet another favourable draw for the 'Tiger' sees him with a fairly comfortable run, until a potential meeting with old adversary Grosjean. If he does manage to beat the Frenchman, he may be left with the simple task of beating Federer in order to reach the final!

In the women's event Maria Sharapova looks to be the player to beat. The 18-year-old has won her last 17 matches on grass, including of course last year's event.

She'll face stiff competition, however, from the likes of Serena Williams, who has reached the final on her last three visits here. Watch out for feisty Belgian Justine Henin-Hardenne, who has won her last four tournaments, and of course Lindsay Davenport who should never be underestimated.

[Beanie]

Keep 'em comin runtcrab

Here's a few more interesting articles/previews that are worth a read:

Thorough ESPN article on Federer - http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/ten...ory?id=2086535

Preview of the draw - http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/ten...ory?id=2087336

Sporting Life review of main mens contenders - http://www.sportinglife.com/tennis/w...al_145118.html

And the womens - http://www.sportinglife.com/tennis/w...al_165803.html

And a mention of the chances of a few outsiders - http://www.sportinglife.com/tennis/w...al_171223.html

[Beanie]

ESPN reports that Canas and Schalken have pulled out.

[runtcrab]

I can see Nadal being a star of this tournament, he may not win it but Im sure the strawberrys and cream crowd will like his style

[Beanie]

Yeah - his gives away little and his opponents will have to play well to beat him. He also has an uncanny knack of always forcing one more shot - one of the ones who never knows when he's beaten.

The withdrawal of Canas could help him, and at the very least he should compete with players like Haas, ToJo and Stepanek. Could well be money to be made on the Total Games markets as he battles his way through one or two 5 set epics.