NBA

[BETarda]

Date :30 Oct
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Chicago Bulls - San Antonio Spurs)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Spurs -3.5
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 8
Bookie: Pinnacle



Analyze: Chicago Bulls - San Antonio Spurs Last night was a bit bad, but the thrilling win by the Wolves coming from 16 points deficit late in the 4th quarter leaves me with a good feeling. Tonight there is a game I really like and that is Spurs -3.5. Bulls have a very nice team, but Spurs looked great in pre season, looked great in season opener against the Hornets and with their great additions this summer, they are in the top 4 contenders for the title. Bulls have injured Rose that should play, but if Bulls are smart and they are playing B2B, they won’t risk him by letting him play two games in a row full minutes. Even if he does play, Rose is similar to Parker in his style of play, but the early Parker that couldn’t shoot the ball. Now with him being injured, Parker should take full advantage of that attacking Rose every possession and Rose without his speed is just a mediocre point guard at best. The fact that Chicago has no Duncan stopper and has a game against Boston tomorrow, the same Boston they lost in Game 7 of round of the playoffs last year, makes me believe they will focus on that game. As I see it right now, I doubt Bulls will cover both games, so I take Spurs with the line today and tomorrow if bulls will take the line, I will take Boston against them as well.

[BETarda]

Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Minnesota - Cleveland)
Market: Under/Over
Pick: Under 191.5 points
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 6
Bookie: Pinnacle

Analyze: This is very simple actually. Cleveland allowed 95 points from Boston and 101 points from Toronto and the games still ended Under against Boston and Toronto (the game in Toronto was Over to some due to the line going down, but even that was only due to a meaningless basket and one from Calderon in the last seconds). What more both games had in common? Boston and Toronto both shot at least 50 points in one of the halves (both in first half actually). I just can’t see Wolves scoring 90 points here. I believe they will score between 80 and 85 points and if so, unless Cleveland will score 105 - 110 points, our bet is safe. Wolves had difficult time scoring against the Nets, mediocre defense team at best, so against Cleveland it should be twice as hard. Can’t say this is the strongest bet, but no doubt it got some decent value





Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Philadelphia - Milwaukee)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Sixers -6.5
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 7
Bookie: Pinnacle

Analyze: Sixers to win and cover the line is my first bet. I agree that Sixers still need to prove themselves. Brand trade didn’t work as they hoped, Miller is gone and they have a great coach, but a new one with tough offense system to adjust. Bucks haven’t played a game yet, so they a bit of a mystery, but a team that given three out of their five best players for free (Charlie V, Jefferson and Sessions) and didn’t bring anyone worth mentioning, doesn’t signal that they want to such things as win games or even being a really rival. At home we will see Redd goes off from time to time (I can’t see what motivation he can have playing for such a franchise), but on a road against playoff teams? It’s a good bet to fade them, unless it’s double digits line




Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Detroit - Oklahoma)
Market: Under/Over
Pick: Over 191 points
Odds: 1.98
Stake: 6
Bookie: Pinnacle

Analyze: Both teams should have a lot of Over results this year and both went Under in their first game of the season. Both games were very different though. If anyone would have told me that at HT, when the score was 68 - 51 (119 points) that the final score will be Under 204 points, I wouldn’t believe. If anyone would have told that the score will be Under 204 by more than 10 points, I would have placed a lot of money that he is wrong. 72 points were scored in the second half and that is due to garbage time. Detroit’s game in Memphis was going towards Under the whole game mainly due to Memphis being unable to score. Detroit scored more or less their number of points 96 and if Memphis would have scored more, I believe Detroit would have did a better job as well and would have reached 100 points. Tonight I believe that at least one team will do the job and reach 100 points. Maybe even both. Both teams have offensive minded coach, both teams have stars preferring to run (Detroit is a team, but at least Gordon and Charlie V don’t know the words defense or slow pace, while Rip and Prince can play both styles, preferring the slower pace a bit). 105 - 95 to Detroit is my predicted score and I prefer the Total here.





Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Indiana - Miami
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Indiana -1.5
Odds: 1.97
Stake: 5
Bookie: Pinnacle

Analyze: Indiana are a solid home team I believe that gave a decent performance at Atlanta and with the money flowing Heat’s way, it’s too good of a bet to turn away from. I see it similar to Minnesota’s game. I agree that Heat can win it, but no way should it be as almost 50 - 50 chance. Granger is healthy (or almost), Hibbert and Rush should continue to improve on their sophomore year and I’m sorry, Heat’s win over the Knicks doesn’t impress me too much. I mean, we are talking about the Knicks. On top of Indiana being a great home team (beat the Celtics, Lakers and many others at home last year), the series between the team always been about home court with the home side winning 9 of the 10 last meetings (Pacers grabbing the only home win). Heat also home oriented team and I believe that bookies don’t make the right adjustments here. I would give -4 to Pacers at home and -7 to Heat at home (11 points difference). O’Neal can make the difference here, so I will take this one carefully





Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Boston - Chicago)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Boston -11
Odds: 1.9
Stake: 8
Bookie: Bet365


Analyze: Boston -11 is the play here. Was so hoping it will be 10 points only, but I need to play the hand I was dealt and it’s not too bad either. Rose played a lot of minutes last night despite being injured; Bulls come of a huge win and Boston just want to beat anyone in sight. Was watching Bulls killing my Spurs bet and besides poor shooting night from three pointers, Bulls won due to having tons of points of second chances due to good offensive rebounding. Boston won’t allow that. Perkins and KG will take care of the boards, the rest of the Celtics will take care of the line. Boston will win by 15+ points

[BETarda]

Date :02 Nov
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Lakers - Hawks)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Lakers -6.5
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 8
Bookie: Pinnacle


Los Angeles Lakers – Atlanta Hawks I think that line of 9 points would have been more accurate here, but I believe it will be DD win anyway. I believe that Hawks will struggle on a road as many talented, but young team are. I can't see myself taking Hawks on a road too many times this season, unless the line will be really too good not to take. Last year they struggled on a road, especially in the West and this is the same team, only year older and with Crawford. Lakers need the W here. They don't want two losses in Staples Center in a row and they need Artest to feel good, especially while Gasol is out, so Odom plays PF and doesn't threat Artest's position. Hawks don't have anything coming close to Kobe stopper, especially if they want to save Johnson and Smith from foul troubles and with Bynum that looks good against the improving Horford, we got a team that has a decent bench in front court, but thin in the back, with only one true PG in the roster, against one of the best, deepest back courts in the league that great at pressuring the ball. Bibby will have a very tough time and with Atlanta going on a four games road trip and will play three games in four night, I doubt they will try to give 110% in that much of all possible games in this road trip. Lakers 104 – Hawks 90 is the projected score, maybe Lakers will even get to 110 and that will leave Hawks will almost no chances to win and even to cover the line.

[BETarda]

Date :03 Nov
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Sacramento - Memphis)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Kings -2
Odds: 1.99
Stake: 7
Bookie: Pinnacle

Evans is in slight doubt for this match, so it's not full 10 units play, but even if he is out, it's still a good play for me. Kings still winless and this is probably their best chance to get that W, maybe the best all season even. After this game they host Atlanta, than play on a road in Utah. Loss today and they easily start the season 0 for 6. Now I'm not saying that Kings are too good for that. They are right there with Memphis battling for the worst team in the West title and winning it so far. Still, Kings come back after three road losses to a season opener in Arco Arena. Last season Kings played their home season opener against Memphis as well, also coming from a winless road trip (than it was 4 games, not three). In the end they won 100 – 95. I really like for this game is Iverson will probably make his debut today in Grizzlies uniform. I love AI, but Conley and Mayo were decent this season so far, with Mayo producing 40 points last night and Conley added 11 points and 6 assists. AI is a great player, but he has to be the focus of a team and maybe it will jell later on this season, but it could cause real miss communication in the first game of the season together. Kings on the other hand just can't get much worse than they looked so far. Arco Arena was for years one of the best home courts and even though it's not the same the last few years, still Kings can give their a good performance from time to time. I believe that this team got pride and they will do what they can to win this one for their fans. Martin will finally feel great without any stopper on him, so will Evans. Casspi is perfect for such game, since he probably the best defender on the team and has winner mentality and Thompson will have the chance to shine as well.

[BETarda]

Date :05 Nov
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (New York - Indiana)
Market: 1X2
Pick: Indiana Pacers to win
Odds: 2.95
Stake: 5
Bookie: Pinnacle


I will start today with a pick on Pacers ML. I feel that it's the perfect moment to start betting on Pacers and if they lose, I will bet on them the next game as well. Dunleavy is still out, but Pacers are a solid team that should battle for the playoff spot despite poor start. Many people don't have a belief in Rush and Hibbert, sophomore players, but I really think they can do the job while Foster and Dunleavy are out. Knicks on the other hand without Robinson but it doesn't matter too much (though it doesn't help them I believe). They don't look good so far. This is a team that must shoot with high percentage to be effective and they can't do it so far. Even in the game they won, they shot poorly and won mostly due to Hornets being so bad and not them being good. This is the exact type of games that Knicks have trouble in. Coming from a position of favorite against a team that needs a W and wants it bad. Granger should go off today. Rush and all other Pacers shooters that struggled before, will have a chance to do it today against defensively weak Knicks and after Pacers shot 3 from 22 behind the arc last night, today I expect them to do much much better. Hibbert is a big advantage on David Lee and I believe we will see him with another double double, I believe that against the Knicks, Pacers won't get outplayed that much in the rebound, but for me, it all comes down to shooting the ball and usually, when Pacers shoot the ball well they win and tonight they got a perfect chance to do so and grab the first W of the season. I can only add that last year, road teams took all three lines in the games between the teams and two out of three ended with road win and that if Pacers lose tonight, we got a great chance to still cash in on them, when they will be playing next home against the Wizards. Pacers to win, 2.95 odds - 5 units play.

[BETarda]

Date: 2009-11-05
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Rockets - Lakers)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Lakers -1.5
Odds: 1.94
Stake: 8
Bookie: Pinnacle

Well it’s an easy play for me. I’m taking my hat off for the Rockets. They are one of my favorite teams and they did wonders so far winning GSW and Utah on a road and Portland at home. Still having said that, they still a team that lost their top three players. They can do so much against superior teams and Lakers are such team. I would give lots of credit to Brooks, Battier and Skola for the wins of Yaoless Houston against the Lakers, but I think that the heart of the wins was Artest. He really took command over the young team at the time. Still, Lakers went all the way and won the ship, Artest and Ariza switch places and will meet again today. Lakers understand that Artest and his ability to fit with the Lakers is the most important issue in their attempt to win the first B2B title in the league since they themselves did it 8 seasons a go. Helping him to get the W against his former team will help achieving this goal. I mean I can’t see Rockets dealing with the Lakers and no matter front court or back court. Rockets get very nice line due to the hype around them, but it should really come down and start today. Lakers -1.5, 1.94 odds, 8 units play






Date: 2009-11-05
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA Hornets - Mavericks
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Hornets -5
Odds: 2.13
Stake: 5
Bookie: Pinnacle

Hornets have a great chance to finally get their second W of the season. Too many losses and while losses like the loss to Boston and San Antonio on the road are understandable, the almost loss at home to the Kings and the loss to the Knicks should trouble the Hornets. I like going against Dallas today. They were really bad yesterday, but they still won. They were stunned at home by Washington, but won a road both LA teams and than yesterday won over Utah getting over 16 points deficit deep in the 4th. Paul will abuse Kidd as he did in playoffs two years a go and Hornets that desperately needs the win will get it. The line is high so the units are low. Hornets -5, 1.95 odds, 5 units play

[BETarda]

Date :14 Nov
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (New York - Golden State Warriors)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Knicks -1
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 7
Bookie: Bet365


Analyze: New York Knicks - Golden State Warriors I want to bet the Knicks for the second twice in a row and I just can’t believe it myself. Still, they play at home, against one of the only teams that worst than them and we can get them practically at PK odds with the line. GSW are garbage and I’m sorry to break it out to GSW fans that still didn’t know it. I can’t even blame Jackson for that. They have much more problems. I really love Nelson. He really brought a new, fresh style to the league a bit over a decade ago and his teams were a great surprise. Now it feels he tries to re invent himself and fails miserably. Nelson’s system starts and ends with the PG position. He hit the jackpot with Nash and Davis and failed with every other PG (unless I’m forgetting someone). Now he has problems with absence of big guys, after Biedrins, last resemblance of a Center in GSW got injured. He got no true PG. Ellis and Curry playing together in backcourt is a concept that failed and hurt both of them and Maggette left Clippers because he got tired sitting on the bench only to do the same in another city in California. I was too little to see Nelson’s Bucks, but I think that after too many successes with “new things” in GSW (first and second times) and in Dallas, he became to in love with his innovations and tries to do things just to be different. This team doesn’t care right now about basketball. I can even say that they care about everything but basketball. I just can’t see myself stop from fading the Warriors on this road trip, until they trade Jackson for a true PG and than maybe everything will fall in to place (though, knowing Nelson, he will bring a PG and assign him to play the Center position). Knicks have another coach that a bit to in love with himself in my opinion. His focus on offense is great, but his refusal to commit to defense and to use wide roster year after year (just look at Suns bench this year), costs his teams. Today Knicks need this win. They got brutal home schedule and they keep improving lately at home and need it to show sooner rather than later. Knicks did a solid job against the Hawks and I was really upset that I was absolutely right in my analysis capping that game, but lost the bet. I think today they will continue to shoot well and this one can easily be a blow out.