F1 - New Season

[Frodo]

Crikey where do you start with this new season changes glore….
F1.com have done three previews which are about as good a form guide as you’ll get IMO……

The Official Formula 1 Website
The Official Formula 1 Website
The Official Formula 1 Website

Season

Everything’s been turned upside down. Well nearly everything. Out of the big 4 (McLaren, Ferrari, Renault, BMW Sauber) only Ferrari and BMW Sauber sound like they’ve got their acts together. McLaren are off the pace and many folk think Renault’s true pace has been masked by one or two laps of genius by Alonso.
Out of the rest I’m looking for Toyota, Williams and Brawn with their controversial diffusers will have an early season advantage. I’d also expect the Adrian Newey designed Red Bull to improve as the season goes on, they have two excellent drivers.

As the season goes on and the other teams catch up to the idea the diffuser advantage will disappear. For that reason I favour Ferrari, because they aren’t far off the pace now and can build up a decent early season tally. I also favour Massa who would’ve been world champion last season was it not for basic errors by Ferrari, basic errors they really shouldn’t repeat. Massa is more consistent than team mate Raikkonen and for that reason I’d favour him for the title. Best of the rest IMO is Kubica. Hills 9/2 on Button is a joke IMO.

Selection: World Champion: Massa 6/1

Race

I think the race is just going to be a case of pick a big price and hope for the best. Traditionally there aren’t many finishers in the first race of the season and with the number of changes to cars I don’t expect this race to be any different. I’d also expect this trend to continue throughout the season because the ban on testing during the season could make it tough for some teams to correct reliability issues.

Button is almost unbackable at 4/1 if you can get Barrichello at 10/1 e/w. I don’t believe there’s much of a difference between them. With the uncertainty it’s difficult to back any of the smaller prices.

On the basis of early season testing times and taking one of the cars with the diffuser advantage I’ve taken Rosberg for a podium at 12/1 with Canbet. He came third here last year too and if his car is better than it was relative to the rest I think that’s a decent shout. Not sure you’ll get that price now because he was fastest in both the practice sessions so far because there may be a total over reaction.

For Qualifying it may be worth a glance at Trulli who put in some decent practice times and is traditionally very good during qualifying (yet often dreadful in the race). 17/1 is worth a small interest.

Back with more later. Hopefully. Probably involving the KERS system which could have a big impact on the race.

Selection: Rosberg podium 12/1.

[Frodo]

Pre-Season Testing Times....

Test Results

BARCELONA - DAY ONE

1. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber F1.09, 1:20.338
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari F60, 1:20.908
3. Jarno Trulli, Toyota TF109, 1:20.937
4. Jenson Button, Brawn BGP 001, 1:21.140
5. Nelson Piquet, Renault R29, 1:21.662
6. Sebastien Bourdais, Toro Rosso STR4, 1:22.158
7. Mark Webber, Red Bull RB5, 1:22.246
8. Adrian Sutil, Force India VJM02, 1:22.452
9. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams FW31, 1:22.813
10. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren MP4-24, 1:22.948

BARCELONA - DAY TWO

1. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari F60, 1:20.314
2. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams FW31, 1:20.907
3. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn BGP 001, 1:20.966
4. Jarno Trulli, Toyota TF109, 1:21.182
5. Mark Webber, Red Bull RB5, 1:21.347
6. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber F1.09, 1:21.615
7. Adrian Sutil, Force India VJM02, 1:21.834
8. Fernando Alonso, Renault R29, 1:21.937
9. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren MP4-24, 1:21.991
10. Sebastien Bourdais, Toro Rosso STR4, 1:23.039
11. Sebastien Buemi, Toro Rosso STR4, no time

BARCELONA - DAY THREE

1. Jenson Button, Brawn BGP 001, 1:19.127
2. Felipe Massa, Ferrari F60, 1:20.168
3. Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber F1.09, 1:20.217
4. Timo Glock, Toyota TF109, 1:20.410
5. Fernando Alonso, Renault R29, 1:20.863
6. Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull RB5, 1:21.165
7. Nico Rosberg, Williams FW31, 1:21.324
8. Giancarlo Fisichella, Force India VJM02, 1:21.545
9. Sebastien Buemi, Toro Rosso STR4, 1:21.569
10. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren MP4-24, 1:21.657

BARCELONA - DAY FOUR

1. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn BGP 001, 1:18.926
2. Nico Rosberg, Williams FW31, 1:19.774
3. Timo Glock, Toyota TF109, 1:20.091
4. Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull RB5, 1:20.576
5. Fernando Alonso, Renault R29, 1:20.664
6. Felipe Massa, Ferrari F60, 1:20.677
7. Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber F1.09, 1:20.740
8. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren MP4-24, 1:20.869
9. Sebastien Buemi, Toro Rosso STR4, 1:21.013
10. Giancarlo Fisichella, Force India VJM02, 1:21.045
11. Sebastien Bourdais, Toro Rosso STR4, 1:21.629


JEREZ - DAY ONE

1. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn BGP 001, 1:19.236
2. Fernando Alonso, Renault R29, 1:19.819
3. Nico Hulkenberg, Williams FW31, 1:20.015

JEREZ - DAY TWO

1. Fernando Alonso, Renault R29, 1:18.343
2. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn BGP 001, 1:18.398
3. Jenson Button, Brawn BGP 001, 1:18.892
4. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren MP4-24, 1:19.513
5. Nico Rosberg, Williams FW31, 1:19.783

JEREZ - DAY THREE

1. Jenson Button, Brawn BGP 001, 1:17.844
2. Nico Rosberg, Williams FW31, 1:18.071
3. Nelson Piquet, Renault R29, 1:18.382
4. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren MP4-24, 1:19.121

JEREZ - DAY FOUR

1. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren MP4-24, 1:18.202
2. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams FW31, 1:20.023

JEREZ - DAY FIVE

1. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams FW31, 1:17.494
2. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren MP4-24, 1:17.946

[Winrew]

9/2 on Button is a joke IMO.

I thought that as well , do you think its the Ross Brawn factor ?
Just reading about that KER thingy , its all too bloody technical for me now , i take it not all the teams have it..

Hamiltons had a mare today , finishing 16th and 18th in practice..

[Frodo]

KERS is something that a driver can use to provide a boost for 6.6 seconds in a lap. Some sort of environmentally friendly turbo (which makes no sense to me) I think. I’m not certain who’s using it or whether it’s something that can be used in qualifying and the race.

Ferrari weren't suppossed to be using it but I heard they are. BMW Sauber are using it for Heidfeld but not Kubica because it affects the weight distribution of the car, Kubica is a fair bit heavier than Heidfeld IIRC. Toyota definitely aren’t.
I think Button at 9/2 is basically on over-reaction to the testing times because the bookies are like the rest of us, they don’t have a clue who’s actually fastest. In a situation like that backing the favourite doesn’t sit well with me especially as there’s not really anything between him and teammate Barrichello.

It was well publicised that McLaren were going to be terrible but I’m really shocked to see them behind both Force India’s. If I can find a match bet there I could well be very interested.

Forgot to say that centrebet were offering a £20 free bet they were also offering Brawn to win the constructors title at 10’s, this was layable at betfair for 8’s you can basically create yourself a nice risk free shot at a few quid there. I don't expect it to win but it might be tradable if Brawn get off to a flyer.

[Frodo]

Rosberg in to 2/1.
Brawn in to 4/1.

Not bad for trading, but I might let it ride.

So lets go with a crazy one. William Hill group betting patent. All outsiders just based on my theory that there'll be a few retirements, all three selections I'm hoping will be competitive, I certainly think all three are value. The shortest priced favourite in these is also the most error prone.

Dark Horses -
Rubens Barrichello 4/5
Robert Kubica 4/1
Timo Glock 11/2
Nick Heidfeld 6/1
Sebastien Vettel 9/1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Middle Of The Road -
Nico Rosberg 1/2
Jarno Trulli 10/3
Mark Webber 8/1
Heikki Kovalainen 8/1
Nelson Piquet Jr 25/1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Best Of The Rest
Kazuki Nakajima 4/7
Giancarlo Fisichella 6/1
Adrian Sutil 6/1
Sebastien Bourdais 7/1
Sebastien Buemi 8/1

[Frodo]

Two small interest Qualy pole position bets.

Webber 50/1
Trulli 16/1

[Quandram]

Fucking technology

Fucking bastard fucking tossbag fucking wank stain useless technology

Set alarm on my phone and the thing then auto updated itself to BST but didn't shift the alarm time.

Do both or neither!

Now i have more time to find a bet that will let me down badly during the race.

Balls

[Quandram]

Couple of race match bets for me.

Glock to beath Trulli @ Evens @ SkyBet

Truili is shocking in a race situation, always has been always will be. Glock is starting ahead of him (just by the 1 spot i grant you) and improved to have the measure of Trulli towards the end of last season. Most bookies have this reversed so i'm more than happy with the Evens.

Heidfeld to beat Webber @ Evens @ BSq

Fancy Webber to struggle slightly over the race distance with the injuries he suffered over the winter. Webber is just ahead of Heidfeld but with Heidfeld running Kers getting a boost to get past shouldn't be a problem... the issue will be if the system screws the car for the 1min 15+ a lap that it isn't running.

Time will tell

[Quandram]

Well Barrichello takes the instruction "don't hit your team mate" to extremes... sat on his arse on the grid then tried to take out as many other cars as possible.

[Quandram]

Fisichella - legend, can't even find his own pit

[Frodo]

Both Ferrari's to punt the car infront of them out on the restart woud be handy.

This period has reay helped Sutil who's unlapped himsef and sneaked in a pit stop. Not that it's going to make the blindest bit of difference.

[Frodo]

Fuck the hell out of the way Buemi!!!

[Quandram]

Trulli will get 3rd... i don't know if i can go on living

[Quandram]

thank fuck, didn't realise Lewis had done Trulli... stuffs my bet still but it's far more tolerable

[Quandram]

Trulli 3rd again now... i don't understand