F1 - New Season

[Quandram]

I don't think i really need to say anything about your Fisi bet... but i want to and here it is...



I had a couple of in-running punts which started off going badly south and then recovered in q3... was screaming at Jenson to get his arse out of that pitlane for a final run, was sure he was going to blow it.

[Quandram]

Frodo old chap, wake up and talk me out of this.

I keep coming back to one name and i don't like it.

Massa

Positives

• He's got the heaviest fuel of anyone in the top 8 (bar Trulli who is 0.5kg heavier in 7th).
• He's got a solid record at Spain (4th, 1st, 2nd in recent years... only beaten by team mates (unlikely today) or better cars (possible).
• He's got KERS.

Negatives

• If it rains he's screwed

I'm looking at 5/1 for 1st lap leader and i'm almost totally hooked on 7/4 for a podium.... hell the 11/1 for a straight win isn't disgusting me.

This could all be because I haven't had any coffee yet of course

[Quandram]

FFS - what is Massa doing not using his KERS fully off the first straight?

[Quandram]

And the re-statement of classic rules continues... don't trust Ferrari

[kompressaur]

Even by the standards of the surreal bubble of the Formula 1 world, it's been a funny old week.
Before the start of the season who could have imagined that the sport's governing body and its most famous team would be trading insults and facing off in a French courtroom.
And who would have thought that the pair's old nemeses, McLaren, would be snuggled up with the FIA, muttering platitudes in favour of a swingeing budget cap which would take a scythe to their workforce in Woking.
The show kicked off last Tuesday when the president of Ferrari, Luca di Montezemolo, published a j'accuse against his FIA counterpart Max Mosley, claiming that the governing body did not have the authority to push through such drastic regulation changes without the agreement of the teams, and specifically his team.
Despite threats by Ferrari that they would walk away from the sport if the plans were not shelved Mosley refused to blink and the Court of Appeal on Thursday ruled in favour of the FIA, severely weakening the Italian team's bargaining position.
The deadline to sign up to next year's world championship is next week so they and fellow renegades Toyota, Renault, BMW and Red Bull will find themselves under increased pressure to sign up to the modified series as a host of new entrants will be considered in the biggest shake-up the sport has ever seen.
It's against this tempestuous backdrop that a grand prix will be held this weekend, so it's lucky we'll be racing at a venue where the key players can take time out from discussions about excessive spending, regain some much-needed perspective and get their feet firmly back on the ground.
That'll be Monaco, then.
The race in the principality has always been seen as the jewel in the crown of F1 but this year it takes on an even greater sense of significance as the teams roll into the Cote d'Azur this week.
Despite the opulence and ostentatiousness on show there is bound to be a feeling of something of a new world order this weekend on and off the track, especially if Brawn GP, as expected, continue their dominance of the season here.
Jenson Button won the team's fourth grand prix in Barcelona, surpassing in just a couple of months the landmark three victories it took their former owners Honda 42 years to achieve.
Button has never won around the streets of Monte Carlo but he heads to the town he calls home as a hot favourite for both the race and the drivers' championship, which he now leads by 14 points from his team-mate Rubens Barrichello.
Barrichello looked set to win in Spain but he ultimately failed to make the most of an ultra-aggressive three-stop strategy and it seems like the Brazilian will have to dust off the bridesmaid outfit he so often wore in his six years partnering Michael Schumacher at Ferrari.
The mechanical grip advantage enjoyed by Button and Barrichello should prove decisive around the twisty Monaco circuit, but the nature of the track means that a spot of traffic in qualifying or a badly-timed safety car can turn a guaranteed pole position or win into a ignominious P10.
Button is 5/2 for the victory which looks generous enough at first glance given that the track should be warm and the chances of rain look slim.
But with some innovative qualifying strategies and undoubtedly some argy-bargy on the cards on Saturday afternoon we could be seeing a slightly shuffled grid.
Despite Button's excellent pole last time out the Brawn is still not as fast a qualifying car as it is over longer runs, so providing the championship leader opts for a sensible fuel load, we may see him off the front row on Sunday.
The biggest threat to the Brawn pair should once again come from the Red Bull cars of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel, who finished third and fourth last time out.
Vettel was unable to show his true potential for the second race running, being stuck behind Felipe Massa's Ferrari for all but the final four laps of the race after fluffing his lines off the grid.
Nevertheless, Webber's pace on a less-than-ideal strategy confirms that the car does have the pace to run with the Brawn if it can in clean air.
The new double-decker diffuser that has been introduced to the car this weekend should certainly provide some extra downforce too, although the advantage will be seen to better effect in the subsequent races in Turkey and Britain.
Despite Massa's fuel rig problems in Spain Ferrari have also clearly improved their early-season form, while Toyota should also be back in the mix after striking off the Barcelona race as one to forget after their planned aero modifications failed to work.
We do quite like the 18/1 quotes floating about on Jarno Trulli to take pole position, and at the risk of continuing to jinx the Italian - he always seems to develop problems when we tip him up, then flies to pole when we lose faith in him - he is certainly worth a stab at that price.
He famously led from lights to flag here in 2004 and is a sight to behold around the streets of Monte Carlo when the car is working well.
Trulli barely figured in Thursday morning's first free practice session but that should be no cause for concern - Toyota traditionally spend FP1 running through simulation work, perfecting their set-up for the race.
His price has drifted following the no-show but we expect him to be back up at the sharp end in a car which plays to his strengths.
Webber is also worthy of support given the car he has underneath him and bearing in mind his excellent showings in the past for Jaguar and Williams.
He's 16/1 for pole and 14/1 to win the race, both of which look worthy of small bets.
The Australian will be well aware that this is perhaps his best opportunity to date to win a race and show his team that he is not willing to play a supporting role to Vettel this season.
He doesn't deserve to be four times the price of his team-mate, so take the value.

14/1 WEBBER CAN WIN STREET FIGHT: Motor Sport Betting News - F1 Previews, News, Odds and Tips, Jenson Button

[Quandram]

Right, lets get this show back on the road.

Monaco - fabulous track which is as good a test of driver skill as you'll get all season.

This one has potential to be even more interesting as Hamilton is starting last. He'll be driving the nuts off the car to try and get in to the points. He's lighter than the 12 cars directly ahead of him and will be desperate to get past those that look fueled for 1 stop (2 is the traditional strategy). He's got a shot of making the pts if everything breaks for him but at best odds of 2.8 it's not enough to tempt me.

What does tempt me is the 1st lap leader market. Button is on pole but Kimi has KERS and if he can get enough boost off the line he can take the lead by the 1st corner. He'll be desperate to get past as he's a lap lighter in fuel and needs to make the most of that.

1st lap leader - Raikkonen @ 2.6

Grid places and car weights:-

1. Jenson Button, Brawn GP, 647.5 kg
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 644
3. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn GP, 648
4. Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, 631.5
5. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 643.5
6. Nico Rosberg, Williams, 642
7. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren, 644
8. Mark Webber, Red Bull, 646.5
9. Fernando Alonso, Renault, 654
10. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams, 668
11. Sebastien Buemi, Toro Rosso, 670
12. Nelson Piquet, Renault, 673.1
13. Giancarlo Fisichella, Force India, 693
14. Sebastien Bourdais, Toro Rosso, 699.5
15. Adrian Sutil, Force India, 670
16. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 680
17. Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber, 696
18. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 688.3
19. Timo Glock, Toyota, 700.8
20. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, 645.5

[Frodo]

Well I continued my race betting horrors with another Group Bet double, Piquet obliged on his part but as is the way with my race bets this season Trulli went before the end of lap 1.

I quite fancy Barrichello to beat Massa and Vettel @ 2.1 with Laddies.

Here's the fuel adjusted grid...

1 Button - lap 20
2 Raikkonen +0.113secs - lap 18
3 Barrichello +0.162secs - lap 19
4 Massa +0.635 - lap 18
5 Rosberg +0.691 - lap 17
6 Kovalainen +0.702 - lap 18
7 Vettel +0.769 - lap 11
8 Webber +0.776 - lap 19
9 Alonso +0.945 - lap 23
10 Nakajima +1.929 - lap 31

Barrichello half a second a lap faster than both Massa and Vettel, also Vettel could be taken out of the equation very early if his fuel strategy sees him knocked back into the midfield for a few laps. What this in my mind basically means that if Barrichello can keep Massa behind him off the start he'll be very difficult to beat. Even if he can't he should be able to get the job done with a superior pit strategy.

[Frodo]

I've taken Massa out of the equation and doubled up Barrichello to beat Vettel and Alonso to beat Hamilton at 2.42 with Ladbrokes.

[Quandram]

I like the logic there although i have to say that Massa is still very much in the equation. Vettel will need to start fast for his strategy to do anything other than bog him down behind slower cars for the middle stint. He'll be desperate to get the jump on Barrichello and keep Massa behind. Massa similarly will know that off the line is his best chance to get ahead of Vettel and ruin his race.

Can't get the image of a 3 car pileup at the first corner out of my head with Barrichello being the victim... not that i'm trying to jinx your bet of course.

[Quandram]

Well that's annoying... the price on Raikkonen to lead after 1 lap has drifted upwards towards 2.9...

[Frodo]

Have to say I'm more concerned about Piquet and Nakajima sitting directly behind Alonso.

[Quandram]

FFS - that was shocking from Raikkonen