July 5th: Tour De France 2008

[kompressaur]

To Win
Cadel Evans 5/2 Ladbrokes
Alejandro Valverde 9/2 Stan James
Denis Menchov 7/1 Stan James
Andy Schleck 12/1 Stan James
Damiano Cunego 14/1 Bluesq

When does it begin? Has it already started? Does anyone follow cycling and maybe have a wee fancy for this?

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Tour de France 2008
Running from Saturday July 5th to Sunday July 27th 2008, the 95th Tour de France will be made up of 21 stages and will cover a total distance of 3,500 kilometres.

These 21 stages have the following profiles:

10 flat stages,
5 mountain stages,
4 medium mountain stages,
2 individual time-trial stages.
Distinctive aspects of the race

4 mountain finishes,
2 rest days,
82 kilometres of individual time-trials,
19 Category 1, Category 2 and highest level passes will be climbed.

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I did fancy Cadel Williams (last year's runner up) quite strongly, but a less than convincing performance in April has meant that people have been less than convinced he can beat his second place of last year, even though he is strong favourite..

Tour de France 2008 - Evans keeps Tour dreams alive

Cadel Evans' plans to go one better than his runner-up place at last year's Tour de France remain intact after what has proved to be an ultimately confidence-boosting week of racing.

More StoriesValverde claims another Liege win
Yet on Sunday the 30-year-old Australian was left wondering about his form at the prestigious Liege-Bastogne-Liege one-day classic, where at least one of his yellow jersey rivals put his climbing potential on full display.

In the end, Evans finished in seventh place at 40sec behind Spanish winner Alejandro Valverde - a result which, given the difficulty of the 116-year-old race held over 261 km, is still impressive.

After an impressive second place finish on the steep ramps of the Fleche Wallonne classic on Wednesday, Evans was left a little concerned at his inability to follow a handful of fellow race contenders when they upped the pace on one of the race's final climbs.

"I didn't have the legs for the distance today," explained Evans, acknowledging that Liege's 261 km, including 12 punishing climbs, was a far bigger challenge than the 199.5 km of the Fleche Wallonne.

On Sunday the extra 61.5km appeared to make a real difference to Evans' bid, which came apart after he failed to follow Valverde, Davide Rebellin and the Schleck brothers Andy and Frank as they distanced him on the penultimate climb at Roche aux Faucons.

With 20km to go, the Australian was left trailing with fellow pre-race favourite Damiano Cunego, last week's winner of the Amstel Gold Race, and unlikely contender Christian Pfannberger.

In the end, Evans did well to finish 40sec behind Valverde, the 2006 winner who finished runner-up last year to absent Italian Danilo Di Luca.

"The team did everything I asked of them and raced really aggressively - they were a little too good for my form," said Evans.

"261 km is a little bit different from the 200 km I did on Wednesday."

With July's Tour de France - and then the Olympics in Beijing - Evans' main objectives of the season, the Australian will soon begin preparing for those events in May after what has been a positive spring campaign.

Asked if he was happy with his current form, the former mountain bike champion from Northern Territory was unequivocal.

"Absolutely," he said.

But Evans would be forgiven for being a little concerned over his failure to follow on the Roche aux Faucons, an ascent of only 1.5km with a punishing 9.9 percent average gradient featuring for the first time in a bid to toughen up the course.

It was there that Valverde - a potential yellow jersey winner in July - paid particular attention to Evans and Cunego.

"On the Roche I was watching Evans and Cunego," added Valverde.

"And when (Frank) Schleck, (Joaquim) Rodriguez and Rebellin went off I saw that Cunego and Evans couldn't follow. That's when I decided to go for it myself."

Prior to then, Silence teammate and fellow Aussie Matthew Lloyd had launched a futile attempt to up the pace in a bid to force a selection.

Evans then pulled away himself, but was soon reeled in. When Valverde and company then pulled away, Evans couldn't match the pace.

"When they went, I just didn't have the legs to get into position," he said.

But with an historic yellow jersey, and a possible Olympic gold, on the horizon Evans was quick to put things in perspective.

"I hoped for more today, but I'm just a part-time classics rider so I can't be too disappointed. I was more surprised to be (so) good at Fleche Wallonne than I was to be bad today.

"That's the way it goes. July (the Tour de France) is going to be when everyone says whether my year has been good or bad.

"I'll keep working towards that."

I still fancy Evans to do it and I think the 3.75 with Betfair is a price I will take..

Cadel Evans to win the Tour De France - 20 pt stake @ 3.75 (Betfair)

[kompressaur]

Thanks Rick. thats a gruelling schedule aint it? I've never watched it Rick. I think i need to set up a computer just to watch streaming sports and get into all sports betting as well as i can. I might not know about it but my enthusiasm could bring more info out the woodwork etc. I think the next stage of my operation should be an addiction to watching psorts all day on stream and betting. Something for me to think of. soz dont mind me Rick. good luck with the bet. I'll see what position im in for 5th July. thats a saturday i belive. A week saturday.

[kompressaur]

After the nightmares of the last couple of years, the organisers of the Tour de France will be desperately hoping the headlines are made for the right reasons over the next three weeks.

The race was ruined by more positive doping tests as well as the sacking of race leader Michael Rasmussen 12 months ago and the fallout is still having a major effect.

Eventual winner Alberto Contador has been prevented from defending his title through no fault of his own as his new team Astana have been barred from this year's race by Tour organisers.

And as Contador's hugely impressive victory in the Giro d'Italia showed, he's unquestionably the best around right now.

It all means that the betting has a markedly different look to 12 months ago and it should make for the most open race in a decade.

The route is also a big factor as there's no prologue for the first time since the 1960s and the time trials have also been markedly reduced.

We'll now take a look at the six men the bookies see as the main contenders, along with the cyclist we feel is the best longshot, before giving our verdict on who is likely to be wearing yellow in Paris on July 27.

Cadel Evans
In the absence of Contador, Evans heads into this year's Tour de France as the clear favourite. His form figures are good - eighth, fourth and then runner-up last year when he also picked up his first stage victory. He's also gone well in the Vuelta a Espana and looks the best all-rounder so the credentials are there as he aims to become the first Australian winner of the Tour. His chances have been further boosted this year by Lotto's signing of Yaroslav Popovych as his chief lieutenant as the tough Ukrainian helped Contador to victory with Discovery last year. The build up this season has gone smoothly too - he won the fourth stage of the Paris-Nice race on the brutal Mont Ventoux climb. He has several other stage wins to his name around Europe, including a second in the Dauphine Libere, his final warm-up race. Since then he's been fine tuning things in training and having gone within 23 seconds of winning last year's Tour de France, he looks the man to beat this time around. The problem though is his price, which looks skinny as around the 7/4 mark.

Alejandro Valverde
Spaniards have won the last two runnings of the Tour de France and there are plenty of reasons for thinking that Valverde can make it a hat-trick this year. The 'Green Bullet' has a cracking CV - Classics wins in the La Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege showing one dimension and second, third and fourth place finishes in the Vuelta a Espana another. He also heads into this year's race as the man in form after an impressive success in the Dauphine Libere when he got the better of Evans thanks to his victory in the time trial. Success in the Tour itself has largely proved elusive but there have been flashes of brilliance - his victory on the climb to Courchevel in 2005 ahead of Lance Armstrong being a prime example. And he started to deliver on all that promise last year when his sixth-placed finish would have been even better but for a shocking time trial in Albi. This year's route, with just two-time trials (and only 82km in distance) should favour Valverde more than most and his preparation suggests he's spot-on heading into the race.

Denis Menchov
Menchov is among the leading contenders this year but his record in the Tour de France is actually pretty average, with just one top ten finish (2006) in his seven attempts. He pulled out last year in disillusionment after team-mate and race leader Michael Rasmussen was booted out of the race but just a month later he was winning the Vuelta a Espana. That sort of form is inshort supply in this year's Tour de France - Damiano Cunego's Giro d'Italia victory in 2004 about the only triumph that's in the same league - but the question now is whether Menchov can replicate it. The mountains have occasionally found out the Russian in the past and they'll make or break his bid again this year, especially as there are some real brutes such as Alpe d'Huez and the Hautacam. A fifth-placed finish in the Giro d'Italia, just over three-and-a-half minutes behind Contador, was encouraging but the lack of time trials in this year's route and his mixed Tour de France record are enough to put us off backing him.

Damiano Cunego
The 26-year-old Italian is a fascinating contender for this year's Tour and in with a real chance despite this being only his second appearance in the race. He burst onto the scene in spectacular style by winning the 2004 Giro d'Italia as a 22-year-old but an infection - mononucleosis - which he contracted the winter afterwards held him back. He showed he'd lost none of his ability when winning the white jersey for the best young rider on his debut in the Tour de France in 2006 and he showed with podium finishes on the stages into L'Alpe D'Huez and Morzine that he can live with the very best climbers. He shocked Italian cycling fans when choosing to bypass this year's Giro d'Italia in favour of the Tour de France (on account of the respective routes) and that's a real hint to his chances. His preparation has gone well too and in a year where there are few outstanding candidates, he might just prove to be a cut above the rest.

Carlos Sastre
There's no knocking Sastre's consistency in the Tour de France but the 33-year-old Spaniard has yet to really show he's got what it takes to win the race. No one in this year's field can match his record - since his debut in 2001 when he finished 20th, he's finished every Tour and made the top ten every year except 2005. Last season saw him just miss out in a podium slot in fourth but the downside is that he's managed just one stage success (back in 2003) and only four in his career as a whole. There were signs of a more positive gameplan as he finished second to Menchov in the 2007 Vuelta but it's asking a lot of him to suddenly change his style and a subdued 20th-placed finish in the Dauphine Libere doesn't bode well either. Another question mark against him is that while he goes into the Tour as the CSC team leader, the pecking order could easily come under pressure if teammates Andy or Frank Schleck start well.

Andy Schleck
Schleck only turned 23 in June and has never raced in the Tour de France but he's already been talked about as one of the leading contenders for this year's race. That possibly says as much about the lack of big names in the race this year but it's also an illustration of just how far he's come in a short space of time. He made his name with a stunning second-placed finish in the Giro d'Italia and it will surely only be a matter of time before he gets himself in contention in the Tour de France. And while there's clearly an argument this year that he's too young and has no Tour experience, neither of those factors held him back in the Giro. What does need bearing in mind though is that his main job at the outset is to try and help CSC team leader Carlos Sastre to victory so a watching brief has to be the call for now.

Kim Kirchen
He served notice that he could be a factor in the Tour de France with a seven-placed finish last year - which was some step-up from his previous best of 63rd. And his impressive victory in the Fleche Wallonne Classic in April - with none other than Cadel Evans in second - only served to back up that impression. That suggested that the emphasis onclimbing in this year's route should be right up his street, as does his second place in last year's Tour of Switzerland. And the Luxembourger is now the High Road team's top general classification hope too after the news that Michael Rogers has been omitted from their nine-man line-up. He's targeted a top-five finish in the Tour this season and, in a relatively weak year, that looks an achievable objective. Indeed those looking for a decent long-shot to give them a run for their money could do worse than taking the 40/1 on offer about Kirchen.

VERDICT:
Our three to follow on what should be a wide-open Tour are Alejandro Valverde, Damiano Cunego and Kim Kirchen.

We've nothing against market leader Cadel Evans but can't help feeling he's no 7/4 shot and it also remains to be seen how he copes with the pressure of being race favourite.

In our view there shouldn't be much to separate him and Valverde so the Spaniard has to be the bet at 9/2.

The route should suit him perfectly and he looked great in the Dauphine Libere.

Cunego is on offer at 14/1 but that price could be generous because he's another who should thrive from the emphasis being very much on the big mountain stages.

The lack of a significant time trial early on means he should be bang in contention and the fact he's bypassed the Giro to concentrate his efforts on the Tour is a big pointer too.

Having said the Tour is wide-open this year, it would be wrong not to look further down the list for a spot on value and Kirchen fits the bill.

He's shown that on his day he's a match for anyone and while his poor display in the time trial at the Tour of Switzerland is a worry, he's another who gets a route that plays very much to his strengths.

At 40/1 and a quarter the odds a place, he's well worth adding to our staking plan.

Moving briefly to the green jersey and it's hard to find an angle because Thor Hushovd thoroughly deserves his position at the top of the market.

Both Tom Boonen and Daniele Bennati would have been strong fancies but they miss out for contrasting reasons.

And the next three in the market - Oscar Freire, Robbie McEwen and Mark Cavendish - are all similar types of sprinters and will take plenty of points off each other.

We wouldn't put Cavendish in contention - it's highly debatable whether he'll finish the Tour - but the young Brit is a real force to be reckoned with in the individual stages as he's just showed at the Giro.

Indeed it's well worth keeping an eye out for a price on Cavendish to win at least one stage in this year's race, though nothing is available at the time of writing.

As far as the specials which are available are concerned, the winning margin is an interesting one this year. Because with no outstanding candidate likely to run away with the race and the lack of time bonuses and reduced time trials, there's every chance of a close finish.

Just 23 seconds separated Contador and Evans at the finish line in Paris 12 months ago and the 4/1 chalked up by Blue Square about 0-30 seconds may just be worth an interest.

VALVERDE LOOKS THE CLASS ACT: Sports Betting - Sports Betting News, Form and Tips

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In recent years backers have lost money when their selections were booted out for doping. Jack Houghton has some essential advice: Don't bet on the tour until it has started.

That there is a Wikipedia entry dedicated to Doping at the Tour De France demonstrates the infamous bond between the great race and drugs. For much of this shared history, the drugs in question were used to dull the pain of the event and not necessarily for the performance-enhancing purposes we are more familiar with today.

In fact, some commentators suggest (although it's difficult to find concrete evidence of this) that organisers curtailed the distance and severity of the Tour in the 1960s: to reduce the need for competitors to fuel their race with pharmaceuticals.

Yes, unbelievably, there was a time when the Tour was more arduous than it is now. As if 2,200 miles, whilst climbing the equivalent of three Everests, in three weeks, is a soft option. Personally, I wouldn't even start one stage unless a pharmacist was certain to stay at my side, repeatedly peppering my body with every performance-enhancing, and sense-dulling, drug known to medicine. Perhaps race officials, the police and media should go a bit easier on these Lycra-clad peddlers?

It would certainly make punters' lives easier. Because the last two renewals of the Tour have seen some backers lose money as their selections have been booted out of the race. Take those who backed long-time pre-race favourite Ivan Basso in 2006. Thrown off the Tour, along with 16 other riders, a day before the curtain-raising Prologue: anyone who had supported the short-priced favourite lost their money under the "all bets stand, run or not" rules of the Betfair market.

Undoubtedly some people (those who had laid the disqualified riders or backed other riders at pre-disqualification odds) profited, but the events determined a golden rule for all future Tour punters: don't place a bet on the Tour until it's started.

After all, it's not as if there's much advantage in getting involved in the overall winner market too soon anyway, as nothing of note is likely to occur until the first significant mountain stage: this year coming nine days in.

Because one thing guaranteed in this year's Tour, which has been true of every Tour in recent times, is that it will be won and lost in the mountains. Unlike flat stages, where organised teams can draft their leading rider to a point where any breakaway is nullified - or at least reduced - mountain stages leave riders exposed: either they're good enough or they are not. If they have a single bad day on the hills, they can frequently lose many minutes; precluding them from any serious challenge for overall race honours. Conversely, a rider who makes a successful mountain attack can all but win the Tour in one effort.

When the key mountain moment will occur in this year's race is difficult to predict, but it is unlikely to be in those first two days in the Pyrenees. However, those stages will provide useful clues (as will two intermediate mountain stages: six and seven) as to who is properly prepared for the race, and who will be able to mount the significant efforts when the race reaches the Alps on stage 15. The best advice is to watch those Pyrenean stages closely and punt the overall market accordingly.

That's not to say that, long before the winner's market becomes a viable betting option, profit can't be gleaned from each individual stage market. But it's certainly not easy. After years of watching the Tour, I'm still a little nonplussed as to when a breakaway will be allowed to stay broken-away, or when the hive-minded will insist on its destruction. But a useful rule of thumb for those betting in-running is that if it looks like the pack has made up its mind to chase, it can generally close down runaways at a rate of a minute every nine or ten kilometres; meaning a relatively straightforward bit of maths can tell you the true odds of a stage leader. However, be prepared to constantly monitor your bets, because just as quickly as the Peloton can decide to chase, it can decide to relent. It really is a complicated organism, as Paul Hochman describes so well here.

Betfair | Tour de France Betting: Stop. Look. Listen. Wait.

[traeth]

spotted this from gooners forum , for those who are interested in Le Tour

clocker Posted 04 July 2008 06:30 PM
Tour De France Preview

Friday 04 July
7:00pm - 9:00pm
ITV4

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Good to Mark Cavendish win and became only the second British rider to win two stages of the Tour de France in the same year..

So far so good for Cadel Evans as he is only 6 seconds behind yellow jacket Kim Kirchin and goes odds on to win Le Tour with some Bookies...

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Hopefully a landmark day as Cadel Evans takes the yellow jersey (albeit by 1 second ) after the gruelling 156km 10th stage of the Tour de France from Pau to Hautacam.. Evans currently 1.86 with Betfair to win Le Tour

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a great day for Evans today , and your bet is looking good with Evans odds on now

my bets of Valverde looking poor after today's performance , out to 50/1

i've also got a small bet on ricco to finish in the top three ...this bet looking better after his ride yesterday , he is now @ 8s , he had drifted out to over 100 last week when I had discounted his chances then

[Snodser]

Would'nt read too much into yesterdays events.

Despite what he says Cadel would be mad to defend "le Maillot jaune".
He doesn't have the team to do so. Tomorrow there will probably be a few abandons, some lads can't handle the rest day. Cadel has put some distance between himself & some serious rivals so he can count on his all round ability to hold off Schleck & Rico.

Truth be told if Valverde had not been dropped Di Gregario would have been given a free head & won the stage.

Evans def looks the hot fav barring injury.

Cavendish will abandon before the Alpes to prepare for Peking.

Lot of lads lost a lot of time yesterday so would not be surprised to see a big group of no-hopers breaking loose tomorrow. Evans & the other favs will be wheel sucking and its not a sprinters stage (?).

It would prob suit Evans for some nobody to take the Maillot Jaune until the Alpes.

In any case, the race is his for the taking.

[Snodser]

Another one bites the dust!

Rico arrested on the starting line! positive for EPO!

Team Saunier Duval pull out of the Tour!

When will the bastards learn? When I raced we had a couple of Cokes to boost the caffeine levels! But Christ that was harmless!

Make you sick, I'll never get used to it.
Will not be watching the Olympics either, The Chinese will be drugged up to their eyeballs.

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Well I've bailed out on Evans..Maybe a bit premature, but the way he struggled in the uphill finish against Menchov, Schleck & co did not bode well in my eyes..Also the way Menchov came back after the fall and powered past Evans was impressive. Yesterday Evans looked physically shot, and although it was only one ride, and a rest day today, he needs to up his game a fair bit and he still has the Alps to come..

Maybe I am putting too much emphasis on one bad ride, but anyhow - I layed him off to guarantee a profit either way.. Now I can sit back and just enjoy the race..