F1 Turkish Grand Prix

[kompressaur]

"For sure we could have run a bit faster but no point (having) to push when you don't need to. It was closer than we expected."

Kimi Raikkonen's comments after the Spanish Grand Prix will provide little comfort to the rivals he left behind in Barcelona two weekends ago.

The stats back up his claims too - not only were each of the nine quickest laps of the race set by either the Finn or his Ferrari team-mate Felipe Massa, but judging by the weight-corrected lap times, Raikkonen had a couple of tenths in his pocket.

The world champion's fastest lap, a 1m 21.670s set just before his final pitstop, was a third of a second quicker than the fastest set by a non-Ferrari rival, in this case Lewis Hamilton's McLaren.

But the fact he had set a 1.22.510s a full 15 laps previously suggests Raikkonen could have gone even quicker; in fact the race's eighth-quickest lap was set as early as lap 15, six laps before he peeled into the pits for the first time.

So the Ferraris were in a league of their own in Spain, and with the medium-to-low downforce sweeps of Turkey next on the agenda it doesn't look as though their rivals will be swigging any Mumm for at least another couple of weeks.

The best chance for McLaren and BMW Sauber to spoil the party is to get their noses ahead of the Scuderia in qualifying and make them work for the win.

The F2008 still takes longer to get its front tyres up to temperature than the cars from those two teams so it's not inconceivable that somone like Hamilton or Robert Kubica could pip the Italian cars to pole position given a favourable fuel load.

Ferrari countered this threat at Barcelona by fuelling Raikkonen and Massa respectively one and two laps shorter than both Hamilton and Kubica, which was enough to allow the Finn to set a qualifying lap around a quarter of a second faster than that pair and claim pole position.

As in Malaysia and Bahrain, the relatively high track temperature also worked in Ferrari's favour, minimising the disadvantage from the slower warm-up rates of their Bridgestones.

Whether this will be the case once again in Turkey remains to be seen - early weather forecasts are suggesting the temperature will be around 16-17 degrees Celsius, which means that McLaren and BMW may just be able to sense an upset, on Saturday at least.

Even then it remains to be seen whether Ferrari will once again respond to the threat by fuelling their men slightly shorter and ensuring their single-lap disadvantage is all but negated.

In any case it does appear that Raikkonen is simply too short at 13/8 in the pole position markets.

Ferrari backers will find much better value in Massa, the man who has won this race from pole position in each of the last two years.

He obliged his supporters with pole and a convincing victory in Bahrain last month to ignite his championship challenge, and the fact that the Brazilian has been consistently fuelled shorter than his world champion team-mate should easily be enough to put off punters from backing Raikkonen.

Massa cannot feasibly be bad value at 7/4 to start from the front of the grid given both his two-from-four pole record so far this year and his previous Istanbul exploits, but with relatively cool weather expected in the Causacus this weekend it may pay to hold fire on car no. 2 for the moment.

Kubica didn't quite live up to the billing we gave him in Barcelona last month but the Pole nevertheless drove a tidy Q3 lap and ended up only a tenth or so shy of Raikkonen (and well ahead of Massa and second-placed Fernando Alonso) on fuel-corrected times.

The BMWs have looked very competitive all year in the fuel-laden Q3 session and with slightly cooler temperatures than expected on the cards, Kubica may be the man most likely to take advantage.

The McLarens simply couldn't tune their set-up to make the most of the soft tyres at the crucial stage in Barcelona, although they do look to have as much potential as the Swiss-German cars, providing the team can unlock it.

Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen could be a threat to the front row but so far they continue to demonstrate an inability to get the most out of their package when the pressure is on in the final qualifying session.

Kubica is 7/1 to take a second pole position of the season which looks fair value, but those with Betfair accounts should get a better price still.

For the race itself, it is difficult to imagine anyone disrupting the Ferrari hegemony over 58 laps.

But with just those one or two question marks surrounding the Scuderia in qualifying trim, we'll hold off from lumping on the 2/1 on Massa for now in the hope that we can get a better price in the post-qualifying revised markets.

And as we have seen in the four races so far this season, once the grid has been determined there is still be value to be found (admittedly often at short prices), as the action continues to be rather predictable.

Moving a couple of rows down the grid, Jenson Button looks good value at 5/2 to repeat the points finish he achieved in Spain.

Button drove brilliantly at Barcelona, finishing a merited sixth and setting a fastest lap that was beaten only by the first four finishers.

Honda's horrible form looks to be a thing of the pastand with the team introducing further developments to their RA108 challenger this weekend, expect the good work at Brackley to continue.

Even if the top six cars enjoy faultless reliability, Button should still be battling with the likes of Alonso, Mark Webber and Jarno Trulli for the final two points-paying slots so 5/2 simply looks too big.
And also on the generous side is the 14/1 chalked up by Ladbrokes about Button in the 'best of the rest' market which takes the Ferraris, McLarens and BMWs out of the equation.

Punters looking to bet on markets involving the number of classified finishers should be aware that due to the withdrawal of the Super Aguri team, only 20 cars will be entered for the race this weekend.

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[SW1966]

Ferrari are on the pace and sadly Mclaren aren't.
Time for some "info" to be passed to LH me thinks.
Enough said.

[stonecold]

This race will be Massa as long as he stays out of trouble at the first corner and his car holds together.

This could be the race where the top 6 might look a bit different BMW havent been close all weekend and i fance Alonso or a Red bull to take the final top 5 place.

[kompressaur]

Turkish Grand Prix Book Closes 11 May 13:00
Each-way 1/5 1-2-3
Felipe Massa 4/7
Kimi Raikkonen 4/1
Lewis Hamilton 5/1
Heikki Kovalainen 6/1
Robert Kubica 33/1
Fernando Alonso 50/1
Nick Heidfeld 80/1
Mark Webber 100/1
David Coulthard 150/1
Jarno Trulli 150/1
Jenson Button 200/1
Nico Rosberg 200/1
Rubens Barrichello 200/1
Sebastian Vettel 300/1
Timo Glock 400/1
Nelsinho Piquet 400/1
Kazuki Nakajima 500/1
Sebastien Bourdais 750/1
Giancarlo Fisichella 1000/1
Adrian Sutil 1000/1

odds from bet365

[wazik]

I haven't had a bet on the F1 this season yet. Bookies dont seem to be very intrested in creating anything worth betting on or at least I haven't found it yet.

As above the race winner has come from pole in all 3 runnings so far (Massa twice and Kimi in '05) Massa loves it here and the best I can find is 1.54 on betfair and you can get 8/15 at a few sites. Add to that his record of winning races from pole position and he should prolly be shorter in my opinion but its not very tempting and I don't like betting on outright winners in F1.

The one bet that did take my intrest is a bit more speculative. I wasn't impressed with Kovalainen in the first half of his debut season last year but he settled in and did well in the second half. At the start of the year the jury was out and I have enjoyed watching him in one of the bigger teams. Four races so far and he clocked the fastest lap twice. Tommorow he has Massa in front so once he waves him off into the distance he has Hamilton and Kimi behind, that should be an incentive to get the foot down. Two out of four so far makes 8.8 look worthy of a bet to me and is available right now on betfair, you can get 8.0 on Expekt.