World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
I watch this every year and have had some success in punting it, but this year they changed the format to winner breaks, which has made a big difference.
The TV table has shown an easy side with the wing ball finding a pocket 99% of the time. Some big names have been knocked out already and last night was a great result for the UK with Daryl 'the dazzler' Peach knocking out the current world champion, Ronnie Alcano, 10-6.
Brilliant to watch, so it was.
Anyway, now that we are down to the last 16 I'm prepared to get involved Tournament Outright In-Running
World Pool Championship
Live on
EW:1/3 1,2
Selection
Price
Bustamante, Francisco
4/1
Pagulayan, Alex
11/2
Gomez, Roberto
8/1
Kuo, Po Cheng
10/1
Immonen, Mika
10/1
Lu, Hui Chan
12/1
Kawabata, Satoshi
12/1
Stepanov, Konstantin
14/1
Deuel, Corey
14/1
Peach, Daryl
16/1
Feijen, Niels
16/1
Bustamante, Joven
16/1
Foldes, Vilmos
20/1
Stolka, Harry
33/1
Martel, Alain
33/1
Boyes, Karl
40/1
Now, I really don't see there being a real, true favourite here, as the format and tables have been so influential, plus the form of those this year has been quite up and down.
First glance at these odds and I'm straight in for .......
Immonen @ 10.00....he's such a solid break and run player, and when he's zoned in he's superb. Had a relatively quiet run up to this point, not attracting too much attention as the local filipino press has been spent most of the time on their own players progress. World Champ 2001, so knows the score and has the mindset to deal with the pressures.
Stepanov @ 14.00...he knocked out Efren Reyes, an all time great of the game. Reyes is nowhere near what he was, but still a tough player to beat. Stepanov has played very solid pool all the way through and again is one who hasn't had the spotlight on him. Good break and excellent shot making abilities, although I feel his safety is a bit slack....worth a punt, but be advised, his relative inexperience at these stages of the Championships is a factor to consider.
Of the local talent I like Gomez @ 8.00. Found a nice soft break to work with and it's been paying off. Got the local support, but that's also pressure when things don't go your way.
I'd lay the top 2 as I don't feel they've got the game this year. Done well to get this far, but a just something about them that doesn't give me a positive vibe....man.
Of the 2 UK players I'd fancy Peach, as that win over Alcano will have done him a big favour.
Of those priced at 33 and 40, I really don't see anyone being that far off the rest, so speculative punts are not bad bets.
Immonen is my tip for the winner. Stepanov and Gomez as back up punts, with a look at the match betting tomorrow.
I haven't seen as much as I usually do this year, plus the last 16 draw passed me by...which isn't the best way to go about punting here , but my fancy remains the same.
So, bear in mind I'm posting 'blind to the draw' but I'm in China so access to the results both on TV and the web is often poor.
Re: World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
So, there's the draw above, and it pans out well for my picks.
All 3 are well odds on and should progress...SHOULD...this really is an open year for the title.
Bustamente vs Pagulayan : top 2 left in the field and good to know one will be heading home.
The first matches kick off in 30mins, so I'll be watching Stepanov, but on the other table Japan's Kawabata @ 4/6 looks good against the 'other' Bustamente, Joven. Quality player Kawabata, loads of experience and that will count against the younger opponent today.
Will try a wee double 4/9 & 4/6...see how it goes.
Of the other games today I think there is definite value in backing Foldes @ 6/4 vs Lu. Foldes got this far last year as well, and will be really pushing himself to take it one round further. He had a great comeback win from 4-6 down vs tournament hot pot Van Boening. That will have given him a huge boost.
Lu won 10-3 vs Poland's Babica, not a tough match in many respects, so I know where I'd view the momentum being. Foldes is an excellent punt and I'm surprised to see him at these odds.
Gomez vs Feijen: if Gomez keeps his form then this is a decent 1/2 shot. Dutchman Feijen has the game to push anyone to the limit, but always strikes me as a better player in Europe/USA. Not the best of travellers in Asia. Has had 3 wins this season ,in fact this is his best season in years, but Gomez is still the better bet on home soil.
Corey Deuel: he's a nice guy...sometimes feel he's too nice..if you know what I mean. Got game...no doubt, but against kuo I feel he'll need a decent lead to get over the line, but his breaking just won't get him it. kuo si kown as the Little Monster, and his relative inexperience and youthful confidence would normally be a handicap, but vs a player like Deuel I don't think it will be brought into play.
Re: World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
Quote:
Originally Posted by fasteddy
...this year they changed the format to winner breaks, which has made a big difference.
I hate the format. I didn't like the qualifying stage even though it was fairly easy to work out what happened but the 'winner breaks' format is very unforgiving in that you may as well have backed the underdog in every match...you'd certainly be up more than you were down!
Re: World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
Crap start with both Kawabata and Stepanov going out. I almost talked myself out of backing Stepanov but he is the top ranked European player at the moment, so expected better. Never mind.
Mika did the biz and my 10's look good.
Bustamente was in very impressive form, so if you don't mind I'd like to revise my thoughts on him...LOOKS GOOD!
Took the break and just ran it out after he drew level at 2-2....soft and with the spread as he wanted for most of the time he walked it thru. Plays either Stolka or Peach next.....I hope it's Peach as he's got the game just now.
Re: World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
For a day that started so badly for me it turned out really well.
Mika and Gomez are thru and on course to possibly meet in the finals.
Foldes won well , and at great odds. The UK duo of Peach and Boyes are both still in it. All good stuff.
04:30
Peach, Daryl
9/4
2/7
Bustamante, Francisco
04:30
Immonen, Mika
1/2
6/4
Foldes, Vilmos
04:30
Bustamante, Joven
1/2
6/4
Boyes, Karl
04:30
Kuo, Po Cheng
5/4
4/7
Gomez, Roberto
Looking at these matches there are 2 prices that simply standout;
Peach @ 9/4
Boyes @ 6/4
A Bustamante double death blow?...well, there is absolutely no reason for Peach not to take Django head on. They have both got good breaks going, plus Peach has shown his attitude is spot on.
Boyes will be delighted to be here, as will the younger Joven. It's a good tie this, with neither having any real advantage in experience at these stages. Boyles , for me, is the one to stick with as long as he keeps his act together.
Gomez should be all over Kuo. He was totally in control in last night's 11-0 whitewash of Feijen. If he gets the lag and keeps the break going it could be another one!
Immonen has a tough little battle vs Foldes , but I do expect him to prevail. Foldes is gaining confience as he wins, and with the winner breaks format everyone has the chance of running it out, so if you have the break and lose it then the mental toughness comes into play, which is where Immonen takes over as far as I'm concerned.
SO, for today I'd advise
Peach @ 9/4 Boyes @ 6/4
2 singles and double.
Outright: Foldes @ 20/1 : if he gets passed Mika then he could be facing Peach, and 'ifs' are well worth covering at this stage! AT 20/1 it's a good move.
Peach @ 14/1 : again, it's an 'if' that can be covered for small stales at this price. Peach has shown he believes in himself, so an under pressure 'best player never to have won a world championship' Bustamante might start to show a few cracks if he doesn't get an early lead.
Already have:
Immonen @ 10 ( now 7/1)
Gomez @ 8.00 ( now 7/4 )
Overall, the spread of bets are not too bad, with smaller stakes being able to cover the odds well enough.
I like the way it's gone, buit still got today to get thru!
Re: World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
Brilliant results ; Peach in a great win over Bustamante , while Boyes got over the line as well. 9/4 and 6/4 singles and doubles...Luverly!!!!
turned out to be a shrewd move on taking Peach and Foldes outright as well, so 14's and 20's in one half of the table and 8's on the now 6/5 fav Gomez.
That means we have 3 of the 4 semi finalists and 75% chance of having the winner!!
Only Boyes ruins the day on the 'outright' party, but thanks to the match betting it's going to be a good couple of days punting again...I really like this tournament!
Re: World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
It's Daryl Peach vs Roberto Gomez in the final!
First to 17 wins the whole thing.
From a neutral's perspective surely very few people would have expected or wanted this ante-post but the Filipinos should be happy that they've at least got somebody to root for in the final.
From a gambler's perspective you did well in mostly avoiding betting on the favourites (in a format like this I suppose there really aren't such things as 'rightful favourites').
Stan James was offering 7/1 for an Englishman (i.e. Boyes or Peach) to win the tournament when it down to the last 32 yesterday!
Re: World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
Yep, Peach vs Gomez....worked out really well...it'll be either a 14/1 or 8/1 winner for this thread!
That'll make the last 3 years results as follows....
Got to say that I'd be favouring Peach as I saw how Gomez was starting to feel the pressure. He was lucky that Kuo didn't punish the mistakes, and then of course Boyes just couldn't do it, but the Blackpool player can be mighty proud of what he has done this year.
Peach gets better and better, increasing his confidence with each win. With the locals really putting the heat on Goemz I'll take the greater experience of Peach to cope with the nerves...which he'll have as well.
Break wise I doubt Goemz will be able to run up a big number this time around, plus you must fancy Peach to be able to punish any errors.
Re: World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
Last year, I picked Ronnie Alcano over Ralf Souquet elsewhere purely because he was odds-against and was 'value' even if it was 'alternative break' format.
I can understand why the bookies may be fearful of Roberto Gomez running it up and even make him a prohibitively low 4/9 (a general 1/2 though) to beat Daryl Peach (a general 6/4 shot but he's 7/4 over at Boylesports) to do so but whoever wins the lag obviously gets a huge advantage.
Superman vs Dazzler eh? One of these two men will be the champion. Ye gads. It doesn't seem right but hey, they've definitely earnt it and reputation counts for nothing.
It's a fluke year and the organisers may want to rethink the 'winner breaks' format as well as the qualification format but I suppose it was one approved by the players and/or the WPA and thus it'll be back for next year.
Re: World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
...and they only finished around fifteen minutes ago with Peach winning a cracker of a match 17-15!
Unbelievable. If you were a layer you'd have probably filled your boots in-running as the pair traded leads with Gomez mostly playing catch-up. Gomez had 'im when he was 14-12 up but then capitulated.
I didn't realise Daryl Peach was the European ranked number two player! Shows how much I know...I suppose neither did the bookies!
I wonder if Sky Sports will start showing some more pool tournaments LIVE and not delayed/months later as a result of this win?
World Pool Championships: Manila. ESPN and Sky Sports
