Darts - World Matchplay

[Hippy Dave]

Starts on Sunday, 1st eound is best of 19 legs.

A couple of 1st round matches that I like the look of.

Dennis Priestley to beat Colin Osborne @ 6/5 (BlueSquare, SportingOdds, Totesport)
Osborne is a player I really rate, but we're yet to really see him do it over a long distance. Osborne isn't a quick player so shouldn't be put off by Priestley's slow game, but Priestley is as good a player as Osborne, and has the edge in experience. I actually priced this one 5/6 Priestley, 6/5 Osborne, the complete opposite of the best bookies prices.

Mark Dudbridge to beat Wayne Mardle @ 10/11 (StanJames)
I made this 5/6 Dudbridge, 6/5 Mardle, and Dudbridge is as low as 4/6 in places. Dudbridge has been showing signs of improvement in recent tournament, so it was not as major an upset as some are making out when he beat Phil Taylor over a short format in Las Vegas. Mardle seems to be having real troubles hitting doubles at the top of the board (ie D20 and D5), and just has not looked at all convincing to me recently. I'm pretty sure this price will be long gone by Sunday.

I was tempted by Manley @ 15/8 to beat van Gerwen and King to beat Lloyd @ Evens, but I still haven't seen enough of the 2 recent BDO recruits in the PDC to be confident about how I've priced these matches up.

[Wayne]

Spotted a bit of value again methinks????

Terry Jenkins to win his quarter - 3/1 Skybet

The guy's in form having won 2 tournaments this year and reaching 3 other finals including the Las Vegas Championship a few weeks ago where Barney walloped him.

Jenkins is seeded highest in his quarter (but is 3rd favourite to win the quarter??) and it looks like the only problem he'll have is to get past Part in the 2nd Round (who Barney beat in the semis at Vegas) to make the bet a winner.

The other main danger in this quarter would be Van Gerwen (bookies make him favourite to win the quarter) but he's still a young lad and inconsistent so it depends which Van Gerwen turns up and he'll have his own battle to get past Manley in the first round. Should Manley get through that 1st round to eventually face Jenkins in the quarterfinal, we can again look back at a Jenkins victory over Manley at the Las Vegas semifinal.

Jenkins first round game is on Monday at 1.00pm

[Hippy Dave]

3/1 looks a little short to me, with Part, van Gerwen and Manley all in the 1/4. Baxter and Anderson also there - out of form but certainly capable of beating anyone in that 1/4.

[Wayne]

We'll have to disagree!
The way I see things working out;

Manley and Van Gerwen play each other first round - so that's one of them gone - I reckon Manley will come through that.

Jenkins will have to play Part in the 2nd round (which is the main danger) and then Manley in the Quarter (who he beat a few weeks ago).

Looks easy when I type it out like that!

Good luck mate.

[Computer Guy]

Cant see Jenkins beating Part.

[Bigkegman]

can somebody please post up all the odds for the games ? Cant get access to odds

[Wayne]

Someone will have to tell me an easier way of doing this???

World Matchplay - Painter vs Gray

Book Closes 22 Jul 19:10

Kevin Painter	1.40	Bet
Adrian Gray	2.75	Bet

World Matchplay - Mardle vs Dudbridge Book Closes 22 Jul 20:15

Mark Dudbridge	1.72	Bet
Wayne Mardle	2.00	Bet

World Matchplay - Scholten vs Mason Book Closes 22 Jul 21:30

Roland Scholten	1.61	Bet
Chris Mason	2.20	Bet

World Matchplay - Jenkins vs Alan Tabern Book Closes 23 Jul 13:00

Terry Jenkins	1.25	Bet
Alan Tabern	3.75	Bet

World Matchplay - Baxter vs Anderson Book Closes 23 Jul 14:00

Ronnie Baxter	1.44	Bet
Bob Anderson	2.62	Bet

World Matchplay - Part vs Warriner Book Closes 23 Jul 15:00

John Part	1.20	Bet
Alan Warriner	4.33	Bet

World Matchplay - Bates vs Andy Smith Book Closes 23 Jul 16:00

Barrie Bates	1.57	Bet
Andy Smith	2.25	Bet

World Matchplay - Priestley vs Colin Osbourne Book Closes 23 Jul 19:00

Colin Osbourne	1.72	Bet
Dennis Priestley	2.00	Bet

World Matchplay - Michael Van Gerwen vs Manley Book Closes 23 Jul 20:00

Michael Van Gerwen	1.44	Bet
Peter Manley	2.62	Bet

World Matchplay - Taylor vs Newton Book Closes 23 Jul 21:00

Phil Taylor	1.06	Bet
Wes Newton	8.00	Bet

World Matchplay - Lloyd vs King Book Closes 23 Jul 22:00

Colin Lloyd	1.83	Bet
Mervyn King	1.83	Bet

World Matchplay - Hamilton vs Mick McGowan Book Closes 24 Jul 13:00

Andrew Hamilton	1.57	Bet
Mick McGowan	2.25	Bet

World Matchplay - Lewis vs Beaton Book Closes 24 Jul 14:00

Adrian Lewis	1.25	Bet
Steve Beaton	3.75	Bet

World Matchplay - Wade vs Jones Book Closes 24 Jul 15:00

James Wade	1.36	Bet
Wayne Jones	3.00	Bet

World Matchplay - Jenkins vs Walsh Book Closes 24 Jul 16:00

Andy Jenkins	1.44	Bet
Mark Walsh	2.75	Bet

World Matchplay - Barneveld vs Ovens Book Closes 24 Jul 19:00

Raymond Barneveld	1.06	Bet
Denis Ovens	8.00	Bet

[Bigkegman]

Great call on Priestley

Manley fell at last hudle

Taylor quete impressive

Need more 180's inLloyd v King match - never posted bets cause i'm on the sauce

[Bigkegman]

Lloyd still to hit one - feck me ragged

[Hippy Dave]

Tonight sees the final 1st round match, in which Raymond van Barneveld should have no trouble in seeing off Denis Ovens.

The final 2 matches are extremely close games, I'd price them up as follows in a 100% book.

Scholten 4/5
Mardle 5/4

Jenkins Evens
Part Evens

Scholten wasn't great in Las Vegas in terms of his averages, Mardle clearly playing better right now than he has been for some time.

Part and Jenkins will both normally average mid 90s, and it's just a case of who throws the best darts at key moments in the match.


Now, looking at the odds, the best prices are

Scholten 5/6
Mardle 21/10

Jenkins 11/10
Part 5/6

Not far off what I've gone for, so I'll most likely look elsewhere for a bet. Back with more later possibly.

[Wayne]

Originally Posted by waynemcke

Spotted a bit of value again methinks????

Terry Jenkins to win his quarter - 3/1 Skybet

The guy's in form having won 2 tournaments this year and reaching 3 other finals including the Las Vegas Championship a few weeks ago where Barney walloped him.

Jenkins is seeded highest in his quarter (but is 3rd favourite to win the quarter??) and it looks like the only problem he'll have is to get past Part in the 2nd Round (who Barney beat in the semis at Vegas) to make the bet a winner.

The other main danger in this quarter would be Van Gerwen (bookies make him favourite to win the quarter) but he's still a young lad and inconsistent so it depends which Van Gerwen turns up and he'll have his own battle to get past Manley in the first round. Should Manley get through that 1st round to eventually face Jenkins in the quarterfinal, we can again look back at a Jenkins victory over Manley at the Las Vegas semifinal.

Jenkins first round game is on Monday at 1.00pm

Seems like this wasn't a popular selection on this thread!

Still, got myself a winner! Ching ching!

[Hippy Dave]

Well done, doesn't neccessarily mean it was value though, as you well know.

Lewis should have far too much for Wade tonight, Taylor likewise against Jenkins, but they're not total certainties.

[Wayne]

Originally Posted by Hippy Dave

Well done, doesn't neccessarily mean it was value though, as you well know.

No a win doesn't mean value but I still believe there was value on this bet.

My thinking - With doubts over the rest of his rivals in his quarter and Jenkins in way better form than the rest (except Part), this boiled down to a 50/50 bet for me as to whether he beat Part. The rest he should beat and in most cases had done recently. As stated Van Gerwen may be a problem, but his inconsistency would probably rear its head again. So, in my mind I'm getting 3/1 for an evens shot on him beating Part.

In reality, the odds eventually turned out that if I'd bet him to win each match and rolled the winnings over, I'd have got approx 2/1 so again my 3/1 bet is value.

I guess we'll have to disagree Dave but that's what it's all about isn't it - opinions.

[Wayne]

Anyway, who gives a fook.

It won!