Luck and MTTs

[Beanie]

Bit of a vague, amatuerish query...

Just played a $350 MTT, and finished 3rd from 120 for $45 and my biggest MTT return.

Hooray, surely? :think

Well kinda, but my problem is that I played really pretty poorly, becoming short stacked early on, and being all in heads up against stronger hands, only to get lucky on the turn or river. I was watching the tennis, eating lunch, and generally not giving it the attention I should have.

When I play well, solidly, and with full attention, its more often than not a top 20% finish, a prize of maybe double the buy in or something.

So, just how much of a factor is luck in MTTs, and is it so much of a factor to make it a very inefficient way to using your bankroll? :think

[GETT1NLOTS]

In tournements you need a bit of luck Beanie. Nobody would deny this, but if you play by the numbers and know when to use your chips / position well against certain people then in the long run you will make more than you lose.

I mean everyone thinks I was lucky to win the last two STT's and everyone knows that this is just silly. It's called skill.

[aliensyndm]

Luck plays a big part in Mutlis. Even if you are a very good player you can play tonnes of multis and get nowhere.

Say you're in a multi with 300 people, assuming everyone was equal you'd each have a 0.33% chance of winning it. OK but imagine you are three times as good as everyone in it. Instead of a 0.33% chance you now have a 1% chance. You'll now win the tournament once every 100 times instead of once every 300 on AVERAGE. That's still alot of times you won't win ! Plus it's an average figure, you could of course go many hundreds without winning one. Multis are nice that when you do win them the prize is usually quite beefcake. But you usually need more than your fair share of luck to manage this. Of course the more skillful player will do better long term than the numpty but you gotta have a long time before that kinda thing will even itself out. Tournament strategy is important to winning these things. As the tournament is bigger you have more decisions to make , hence you have to consistently make the right decisions to give yourself the best chance.


If your aim at poker is to purely make cash , cash tables are what you want to be playing but only if you are comfortable with them. If not, play single table tournaments. Personally I would suggest playing multis now and then but view them as "extra", you can't consistently place in the top 5 of multis with over a couple hundred of entrants no matter how good you are.
If you play well every now and then you'll get a beefcake pay day, with a few smaller ones mixed in as well when you are 10th etc.


Getting outdrawn in a multi can be utterly devastating. The difference in prize places can be huge. I remember being heads up in a multi with huge blinds, I pick up AJ so that's an all in straight away - I was called with QK and outdrawn and hence came 2nd. Not exactly a bad beat but still a huge difference in prize and I got the chips in ahead, but that's all you can do.

[GETT1NLOTS]

I find that STT's are actually better than MTT's for consistent returns for the reasons Alien has just given. As a serious money making proposition I stick to these tournaments more than the MTT's.

I do like playing MTT's if I know I'm not doing much at night though. But I do see them as 'fun' as opposed to a serious money maker.

Of course cash games is where you can grind out a consistent living if you have the time, patience and a little skill.

[aliensyndm]

Only a little skill eh gett1n ?

[Beanie]

Cheers chaps

[mrmuzeman]

Id echo the views here. I spend probably 60% of my time playing cash games, 30% STTs and 10% multis.

I find multis difficult to do well in but it really could be just an unlucky run. I mean you can keep losing your important all in when your near the money everytime for many times in a row. You get no money and you probly spent 2 or 3 hours getting there for nothing as well. At least if you bust out in an STT on the bubble its not gonna take anymore than 45 minutes or something. In a cash game you just reload or take a break because its all just one big game.

I still REALLY REALLY want to win a proper MTT though, one with over 100 entrants. Thats why I still play them from time to time. Ive won a 33 player one but that doesnt really count

I do like the idea of just paying a certain amount and not having to risk anymore for a potentially massive return. So Id view them as a bit of a change in routine and a bit of fun for a change of pace.

[moDtheGod]

None of my MTT wins "count" either. A small (about 20, I forget) 7 stud MTT, 2 small NLH tournies and a 400 man NLH... but it was a freeroll!