WC Qualifiers - 3rd Jun

[kompressaur]

odds from www.bet365.com

EUROPE




South America


Americas


ASIA


AFRICA

[Kiko]

Russia, Scotland and Ireland seem too be the only ones im going to be interested in. Need to have a look at squads with injuries etc having a factor. So will get back to you on this once i have a look around!

[kompressaur]

I'll be interested in looking at Macedonia, Rep Ireland and Turkey. Wanna look at some of the tighter games-

Bulgaria v Croatia,
Belarus v Slovenia ,
Turkey v Greece
Iceland v Hungary,
Albania v Georgia
Colombia v Peru
Ecuador v Argentina


will be interesting,

[MickeyPaul]

I can't see me not being on Scotland. We actually looked like a football team against Italy. Passing the ball? What is this.... passing the ball? I enjoyed it again as the players seem to be and I just can't see Scotland not winning.

[kompressaur]

It's a 'must win' game for us Mick. If Norway fail to get a point from Italy and Belarus win then we'll just be 3 pts behind the 3 teams batlting for second spot. Second spot is still a play off place aint it?

[MickeyPaul]

Correct amundo.

[raven]

Ecuador v Argentina

arg. first place in the qual standings. Ecuador 2rd.

Jose Pekerman gave a preliminary list of 26 summoned to confront the parties before Ecuador in Quito and Brazil in Buenos Aires, both by the Eliminatory South American woman for the World-wide one of Germany 2006.
Everything indicates that the technical director will repeat the formula that so good results he gave him in occasion to play against Bolivia, in La Paz, and Colombia, in the Monumental one.

The most salient new features, are the returns Samuel, Tevez, Pablo Aimar, Kily González, D'Alessandro and the Thin Chelito.

The selected one of the AFA will play against Ecuador next the 4 of June, to 18, in the height of Quito and 4 days later, with Brazil, in the stage of River Plate, to 21.45.

Pekerman made the reservation of which the list is susceptible to be modified or to be extended; this of insurance, has to do whereupon, so far, it only mentioned elements that play in the outside. The training will begin in the estate of Ezeiza, next the 30 in matutinal schedule.

These are the first 26 chosen ones:

Frank Leonardo (Athletic of Madrid, Spain); Fabricio Coloccini, Aldo Duscher, Lionel Scaloni (Sport Corunna, Spain); Gonzalo Rodriguez, Juan Pablo Sorín, Juan Roman Riquelme, Luciano Figueroa (Villarreal, Spain); Gabriel Milito and Luciano Galletti (Real Zaragoza, Spain).

Also, Walter Samuel (Real Madrid, Spain); Pablo Aimar, Ayala Robert (Valencia, Spain); Maximiliano Rodriguez (Espanyol, Spain); Javier Zanetti, Esteban Cambiasso, Cristian González (Internazionale, Italy); Hernán Crespo (Milan, Italy); Leandro Cufré (Rome, Italy); Diego Placente (Bayer Leverkusen, Germany); Andrés D´Alessandro (Wolfsburgo, Germany); Javier Saviola, Lucas Bernardi (Monaco, France); Gabriel Heinze (Manchester United, England); Carlos Tevez (Corinthians, Brazil) and Thin Caesar (Blue Cross, Mexico).

The technician of Ecuador, the Colombian Luis Fernando Suárez, indicated that if its equipment wins to him to the one of Pekerman, he will not be by a chance.


AP

The DT has faith.


"the idea is to begin making the things as it must be; it seems me that if by some circumstance the equipment gains the party it will not be, of no way, by a chance ", indicated Suárez to the journalists on the party of next the 4 of June, by the eliminatory Souths American woman of the World-wide one of Germany 2006.
Suárez asserted that Ecuador has a great equipment and that hopes to obtain a good preparation in the previous days to the confrontation that will be in the Ecuadorian capital.

"Ecuador depends on its possibilities, because we know that we have a good equipment, as also we know of the qualities of Argentina and Colombia", stood out.

Suárez both began Monday with his directed a cycle of training for next parties of eliminatory that will dispute before Argentina, the 4 of June in Quito, and in front of Colombia, the four days later in Barranquilla.

To the call of Monday they did not appear Johnny Baldeón, of Sport Quito, by personal subjects; nor Thin Agustín, of Barcelona guayaquileño, because it had permission.

The selected ones that belong to University Sport Liga of Quito will be united to the group the next Friday, after the party of the Glass Liberating of America before River Plate, Thursday, in Argentina.

Stolen Iván, the defense of the Mexican Pachuca, will arrive next Thursday and on the following day Carlos Tenorio will do, who acts in the A the Saad, of Qatar.

The selection will play a friendly party next Thursday before the Emelec club, in the harbor city of Guayaquil, like training, but mainly with beneficial aims, to help the relatives of Otilino Tenorio, deceased the past 7 of May in a traffic accident.

Haven't looked at the bf prices yet but might lay argentina; they're taking a strong squad but Quito is a tricky place to go to. Also, the game against Brazil is straight after, and that'll be of greater importance than this one. A point should suit 'em both.

ecuador v. strong @ home: w6 d1 l0. gf15 ga5.
argentina away: w3 d2 l1 gf10 ga6

last 10's (incl. friendlies):

2005-05-05 Ecuador-Paraguay 1-0
2005-03-31 Peru-Ecuador 2-2
2005-03-27 Ecuador-Paraguay 5-2
2005-02-10 Chile-Ecuador 3-0
2004-11-17 Ecuador-Brazil 1-0
2004-10-28 Mexico-Ecuador 2-1
2004-10-15 Venezuela-Ecuador 3-1
2004-10-11 Ecuador-Chile 2-0
2004-09-05 Uruguay-Ecuador 1-0
2004-07-14 Mexico-Ecuador 2-1

2005-03-31 Argentina-Colombia 1-0
2005-03-26 Bolivia-Argentina 1-2
2005-03-10 Mexico-Argentina 1-1
2005-02-09 Germany-Argentina 2-2
2004-11-18 Argentina-Venezuela 3-2
2004-10-14 Chile-Argentina 0-0
2004-10-09 Argentina-Uruguay 4-2
2004-09-05 Peru-Argentina 1-3
2004-08-18 Japan-Argentina 1-2
2004-07-25 Argentina-Brazil 4-6

h2h's:
2004-07-08 02:45 Argentina 6 1 Ecuador
2004-03-31 01:30 Argentina 1 0 Ecuador
2001-08-15 23:00 Ecuador 0 2 Argentina




Brazil v Paraguay

Brazil (2nd) v Paraguay (4th)



another possible chance to lay the favourite here, imo. Brazil without (primera liga) players Ronaldo, Roberto Carlos, Ronaldinho, Oliviera, etc for this one. The Brazilian players called up (incl. Robinho) have been released to play in the Copa Libertadores for Santos and Sau Paulo this week and will join the national squad straight after.

Paraguay are actually a decent team - incl. strong performances in the Copa America and Olympics. Another game where both may well be happy with a point.

h2h's:

2004-07-15 02:45 Brazil 1 2 Paraguay
2004-04-01 02:40 Paraguay 0 0 Brazil
2002-08-21 21:00 Brazil 0 1 Paraguay
2001-08-16 02:40 Brazil 2 0 Paraguay
2001-07-19 02:45 Brazil 3 1 Paraguay

av. odds 1.32 brazil? no thanks.



Chile v Bolivia (1) 1.57 paddy power. (av. 1.51)

This is the best of the SA bets imo.

Chile 8th place - 14pts.
Bolivia last - 13pts.

just a single point difference but Bolivia can consider themselves out of the WC now - it'll be tough for Chile, but a play off place (5th) is still possible.

Chile @ home w1 d4 l1 gf4 ga4
Bolivia away: w0 d0 l6 gf4 ga17

Bolivia totally depend on the high altitude @ home and are consistently poor away; a pattern that repeats itself in the Copa Libertadores with their club sides.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Great post Raven.

I like the odds on Paraguay to nick something from Brazil. I might lay Brazil on Betfair for small beer. Paraguay have had some decent results against Brazil before and with some of Brazil's players missing I don't see why this time will be any different.

I also like the look of Chile due to the altitude factor you mention. I want better than 1.57 though. I'll go and have a look.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Nothing better than 1.56 on Chile on Betfair at the moment. If 1.57 comes up it is gobbled up pretty quickly. Seems the smart money all views Chile at 1.57 to be value. (Maybe I'm greedy )

[Bigkegman]

Scotland, Poland, Russia & Rep of Ireland for me - big style

[Beanie]

My tuppence worth...

Scotland v Moldova

The Background

This is realistically Scotland's last chance to get back into the race for second spot in the qualifying group, as we have games v Italy and away to Norway/Slovenia still to go amongst others.

Scotland currently sit second bottom, with two points from 4 games(draws with Slovenia/Moldova and losses to Italy/Norway) with Moldova propping up the group on two points from 5 games(draws with Scotland/Norway).

Moldova are virtually out of the race for 2nd spot, and would surely need a victory at a packed Hampden on Saturday to get back in the hunt.

The Form

Scotland have been woeful thus far, scoring just 1 goal vs Moldova, and conceding 4. IMO it is important though not to attach too much importance to their performances in the group so far, as all but the Italy game were under now departed manager Berti Vogts.

The game vs Italy offered much more encouragement under Walter Smith, and but for a couple of sublime free kicks from Andrea Pirlo, Scotland might well have taken atleast a point. But I guess thats the sparkle we don't have...

No sparkle, but plenty fight which was sadly lacking under Vogts, and Smith certainly seems prepared to play a slightly more expansive system.

Its difficult to guage the capabilities of the team if we only have the Italy game to judge it against, but many players are coming off very good domestic seasons. Players like Lee McCulloch and Brian O Neill were heavily involved in the promotion battles in the Coca Cola Championship, David Weir in Everton's push for a CL spot, players like Riordan, Miller and O Connor in hot scoring form in the SPL, and Hartley, McNamara and Ferguson standouts for Hearts, Celtic and Rangers respectively.

I don't know much of Moldova but for the 1-1 draw played out between the two teams in Chisinau. That game was played on a terrible pitch, with Scotland at just about their lowest ebb of the Vogts era having just been beaten 1-0 by Norway at home, although its worth noting that CSKA player Sergey Dadu scored and looked a continual threat that night, and will be the big danger on Saturday. Miterev is another potential danger, but Smith should be well prepared, and in particular will look to translate the advantage Scotland should have in midfield into chances for the front pairing.

The Teams

In goal, Rab Douglas is injured, and Davie Marshall has had few first team appearances, so it will surely be Craig Gordon between the sticks.

In defence, Gary Naysmith is injured, and Brian O Neill looks doubtful, but most would expect a centre back pairing of Pressley and Weir, with Webster offering good cover on the bench. That offers a solid back 2, and Pressleys understanding with Gordon in goal should be a bonus. Livingston's David McNamee is injured, so with a lack of options it will most probably be Graham Alexander at right back, although Hibs' Gary Caldwell could stake a claim. At left back without Naismith, Jackie McNamara could be vital in getting the team going, and having played at left back for part of the season for Celtic, Smith might use him here.

So the back line looks solid, although McNamara and Alexander will probably be a little less adventurous with their raids up the flanks than McNamee or Naismith might have been.

Midfield is becoming the real problem area for Scotland. Darren Fletcher and Nigel Quashie are key players in the middle, but are both doubtful. It looks like Quashie will miss out, but Fletcher has stated his desire to play even if injured, and if he declares himself willing to play, I don't think Smith will leave him out, and that would lend itself to a partnership with Barry Ferguson in the middle. Just how strong that partnership would be depends on Fletchers condition.

Left midfield could well be between McCann(whose Rangers connections might put him favourably in the eyes of Smith) and McCulloch(whose performances for Wigan on their way to the EPL speak for themselves.) I think McCulloch could well get the call after having a full season under his belt.

On the right, I think Paul Hartley could get another chance. Its not his favoured position, and he perhaps struggled a little there v Italy, but he might be given a slightly more flexible role to allow him to drift inside.

Having said that, strikers Riordan and McFadden can be utilised as wingers, but I wont bother examining that possibility as there are too many ifs.

Up front represents a slight dilemma too. Riordan, O Connor and Lee Miller have been on superb form, while McFadden, Kenny Miller and Steven Thompson have good pedigree. O Connor is highly doubtful, and Miller is unlikely to be played from the start as this is his first call up. McFadden will play given his ability to take players on, and after that it could well be between Riordan and K Miller for the other slot. A lot of fans(me included) would love to see Riordan start, but it is probably more likely to be Miller.

This team is unlikely to be correct, as there are injury doubts throughout the squad, and this is only an opinion anyway, but that make it...

Gordon

McNamara
Pressley
Weir
Alexander

McCulloch
Ferguson
Fletcher
Hartley

Miller
McFadden

I'll leave the Moldova team alone, as I dont know enough...

Betting wise

1.53 is the price on a Scotland win, and while I think they will, I cant see much value in those odds. At best, it is perhaps useful in a double to push the price over evens, but not really worth taking on its own, especially with the injury doubts.

3 goals between the two teams, with two against each other, speaks volumes for the attacking problems both teams have. Scotland have a great knack of failing to put away good chances when it comes to internationals, while Moldova may well have to look to a bit of magic from some of their better front players.

I don't think Moldova will score, but 1.73 on a Scottish clean sheet at Paddy Power is a little to skimpy.

Unders could be a very tempting shout, especially at 1.80 on betfair, although if Moldova nick a goal, 2-1 may well be the danger to that bet.

So, I'll be doing a correct score combo for this one...1-0 and 2-0 Scotland combined offers odds of 3.50 if either comes up, and ill add on savers on 2-1 and 3-0.

A staking plan would be as follows:

1-0 @ 7 @ Stan James 2pts to return 14pts
2-0 @ 7.10 @ Pinnacle 2pts to return 14pts
2-1 @ 8.50 @ various 0.6 pts to return 5.1pts
3-0 @ 11 @ various 0.5pts to return 5.5pts

That means 5.1pts staked to return 14pts in the event of 1-0 and 2-0, @ odds 2.75, with your stake returned(or a tiny profit) if it ends up 2-1 or 3-0.

:think

That offers good value in my eyes.

I might have small nibbles on FGS Pressley and Ferguson @ 34 and 13 respectively as well.

ALBA GU BRAGH!!!!

[crowie]

Nice post Beanie.

I am on Scotland at 1.60 with Expekt. After the promise of the Italy game and a pretty full Hampden tomorrow I would be looking for 3pts out of this game without a doubt.

Would agree with your side mentioned bar possibly Lee Miller for McFadden up front. I think WS is going back to basics in a way in that

1. He is playing players in their club position at international level as much as possible. No more Gary Caldwell at right back.

2. He is picking players who are playing regular first team football.

Both things that Berti Vogts was guilty of completely ignoring.

Personally I think McFadden flatters to deceive and while we are not exactly awash with talent at this level I still feel there are better options than him.

Hopefully 3 points tomorrow, 1.60 will do for me.

And for anyone who is going, Pandoras, 11am, see ya there

ALBA GU BRAGH

[crowie]

While not exactly a pick for tomorrows games I think Skybets 3.25 on Ireland winning their group is a decent shout.

To win group 4 market

France best price 1.90 bookies, 1.93 BF.
Ireland best price 3.25 Skybet, best price 3.05 elsewhere, 3.10 BF
Swiss best price 6.00 bookies, 5.90 BF
Israel best price 21 bookies, 17 BF.

Current group

France Pld 6 - 10pts
Israel Pld 6 - 10pts
Switzerland Pld 5 - 9pts
Ireland Pld 5 - 9pts
Cyprus Pld 6 - 1pt
Faroe Islands Pld 4 - 1pt

This weeks fixtures

Sat

Ireland v Israel
Faroes v Switzerland

Wed

Ireland v Faroes


Tight group with 4 sides still in with a possible shout. Ireland have been to France, Switzerland and Israel and drawn each game. All 3 now have to visit Ireland starting with Israel.

Its not impossible to see the group after Wednesday sitting as

Ireland 15pts
Swiss 12pts
France 10pts
Israel 10pts

With France and Switzerland played 6, Ireland and Israel played 7.

France are favourites but are not the team they were. 5 goals in 6 games sums them up. Ireland actually had the better chances in Paris v France in the 0-0.

I think Ireland are in with a great shout. They have a superb home record in recent years, have all 3 challengers to come to Ireland and a win and a draw with their two main would see them through IMO. I would actually rate Switzerland as their biggest danger rather than France.

France, as I said, have been struggling, and have to visit both Ireland and Switzerland. All 3 other sides at the top have visited France and all 3 games finished 0-0.

France are as short as 1.67 with Skybet and that’s on reputation alone certainly not the form shown in this group or their friendlies. They have played 4 friendlies in the season just finished, all at home and have had the following results (latest last).

France 1 Bosnia 1
France 0 Poland 0
France 1 Sweden 1
France 2 Hungary 1

There is not much money on the exchanges for these group winners to be honest but after the upcoming games I am sure Ireland will be shorter than 3.25. If everything plays out as it should I reckon I could be holding a 3.25 bet on effectively Ireland beating Switzerland in the last group game in Dublin. And I don’t think they will be that price come that game.

[Kiko]

I'm not convinced by Chile - my dad is from there so i always check their results and they are a rather poor teams these days. Standard of players have dropped when things used to look promising with Zamorano, Salas etc. Bolivia though, are a poorer team and the table doesnt lie - most of their results have been at home but they are always a tough team to beat home or away. I fancy a low scoring draw here.

Scotland are a safer bet with the odds just a little bit lower. My only main concern here would be that Quashie for me has been maybe Scotland's best player in recent games and will be a big miss. And with Fletcher playing through injury - well i dont rate him too well at the best of times, so i have my concerns about with carrying an injury. Strikerwise is interesting - I'd go with pace with either Miller or Miller,lol Scotland play better when they have pace upfront rather than the big man like Thomson. The Italy game has given all us Scots extra hope now - but then again, thats when we are at our most vulnerable. For too long we have performed great against the top nations like Italy, England, Germany - its these banana skins that costs us a lot, lets hope this isnt one!

[Beanie]

Missed that 1.60 at Expekt crowie(thought 1.53 was the best available) and I think Ive got an account gathering dust there, so I'll probably wake up all patriotic and throw the month's spending money on it

Thought McFadden was virtually a stick on these days...but as you and Kiko say that might not be the case under Wattie. I'd certainly be all for having two strikers who have been playing week in week out.