Confederations Cup June 26th Mexico v Argentina

[Kiko]

[MIKEROBB]

Any chance of some 1st/last goalscorer beting on this event gents???

[kompressaur]

Any chance of some tips first Mike

[Kiko]

Mexico v Argentina

Since the tournament began its been Mexico who have been making all the noise. A skillfull pacy side with a solid backbone that doesn't concede many goals. They came into the tournament on a 16 game unbeaten run which alot of people, myself included, underestimated.

They started off their first game rusty against the Japanese but grew into it more as the game went on and ended up with a narrow 2-1 win, which was a lot more comfortable than the scoreline suggests.

A player i have really been impressed with for the Mexicans is Borgetti. His pace and movement is second to none and he brings the other players into play very well. He is currently the leading goalscorer in all World Cup qualifiers and a lot will be on his shoulders today if they are to win.

Argentina on the other hand came into this tournament having already qualifed for the World Cup. In all games they have played so far they have been by far the dominant team. They are scoring plenty of goals - just the defence isnt what you would normally associate with an Argentina side usually. Perfect example of this was against the Germans. They had 19 shots on goal compared to the Germans 8 and amazingly had 68% of the play. If they can toughen up at the back and continue scoring goals freely then they will win this tournament.

Roman Riquelme has been their main star in this tournament. He has chipped in with 3 goals already and is continuing his fantastic form he did at Villarael the whole season. His intelligence on the pitch and his defence splitting passes and runs are hard for any team to cope with. You are getting around 9/4 anytime goalscorer bet and this is fantastic odds as he takes everything most the time.

Unsure of recent head to heads between the two sides but i wouldnt look into this as the teams have been chopped and changed quite a bit in the last couple of years.

Two bets for me -

Argentina to win - 10 pts
Riquelme Anytime GS - 5pts

[fasteddy]

Where did you get these prices?!! Mexico 100/30?? That's the LOWEST in the known UNIVERSE!! The industry average is 4.60!!

Nice write up Kiko. I agree with a lot of what you say about the Argentinians. They do have that edge with the input of Riquleme. He can really change the course of a match.
With the Mexicans it's a tricky call to decide how they will have been affected by the 'doping' scandal...I'm of the opinion that it won't be any surprise to the team, I'm sure anything like that is known to most of the other players as it's very hard to hide any serious stuff..if it is indeed serious.

It should be a close run game, with both sides having shown enough talent and smart tactics to be worthy of a final spot.
For Mexico, they can get a bit of a lift with the inclusion of Barca's Marquez. He is seen as a talisman for the side, although having looked at their results so far the question is " Do they need him?"

Actually, I think they do.
At this stage it is vitally important for them to see a commanding force at the back. A lot of the confidence that runs thru this current side comes from the defence, especially the keeper and Marquez.
You don't go 20 games unbeaten without a solid backline. Look against Brasil , they were very sure of themselves, happy to defend as they normally do, without feeling the need to shore up the middle and back.

The thing with Argentina that just puts me off a bit is the end result of such dominant possession: 65% v Tunisia ( 2-1), 53% v Aust(4-2) and 62% v Germany (2-2).
It would appear that they do better when it is not so one sided, but that just doesn't make sense.
For all the talent they have, for all the attacking players they possess, when they've had the run of play and the chance to create scoring opps it's not materialsed.

'Shots on goal' have gone 7-8-5 in their games. Again we see the greater amount in the more even match.

I can argue a case for why this can happen, but I'm not going down that road.

Compare this to Mexico's 'poss/shots' for their 3 games : 53%-7 45%-5 47%-5.
They aren't heavy scorers in this tournament, but I think their defence is better than Argentina's , and this game will be about the defensive, and not, as many predict, the offensive , qualities of both sides.
The side that makes their time on the ball the more productive is going to be the winner. Seems so clear and obvious, doesn't it?

(I wonder if there are bets on whether the greater possession wins the match?)

Bets: (best odds I can find)

3 pts: Mexico @ 5.65 with unibet ...crazy price, or what?...
7pts :Mexico +0.5 @ 2.17 with betinternet.com
1pt :1st goalscorer: 1/2 odds on 1-2-3 first scorers: Zinha @ 14/1

[Kiko]

Odds were just from Stan James. When doing vBookie events i dont have the time to be searching for best prices so take the first one i get too.

Its a tough one to call tonight - im not really sure as the day has gone on. One minute im siding with Argentina, then im thinking of what the Mexicans are capable of. For the minute i will stick with my original bets - the percentages you said though do show that one game Argentina are going to get it right both offensively and defensively and are going to give someone a good batter. I dont imagine for a second it will be tonight, but you never know.

Havent heard of any injuries tonight. Do you know of any Eddy?

[rene]

The balance since Los Angeles 1985:

Argentina - draw - Mexico
___4_______6______2

The balance shows that the mexican have no fear to the gauchos!
Any results from the past were tight!

At the Cup the Gauchos are without a defeat. They wins against Tunesia (2-1) and australia (4-2) and have a draw versus Germany (2-2).

The mexican lose versus Japan(1-2) and have a draw versus greece (0-0) in the last match. BUT 3 points versus brasil...

I think the match will be tight and good to watch on television.

punts:
- over 2,5 goals
- HC +1 for Mexico



the stadion for semifinal 2

[raven]

from terra:

The probable Argentine alignment would be the following one: Germa'n Lux; Javier Zanetti, Fabricio Coloccini, Gabriel I militate, Gabriel Heinze; Mario Santana, Esteban Cambiasso, Juan Pablo Sorín, Juan Roman Riquelme; Javier Saviola and Luciano Figueroa.

argentina @ 1.80 interwetten will do me.

just for a bit of fun, any chance of 1st scorer prices for heinze, zanetti and figueroa specifically?

[Kiko]

Aye why not - i will post 5 from each team up.

[fasteddy]

Centre back Galindo and attacking defender Salvador Carmona were sent home due to the doping stuff.
Galindo has been influential in his centre back role, played 2 games:his absence is a negative for tonight.
Carmona has played 2 games , got an assist and has had 3 shots on goal.
Again, this counts as a negative.

Mexico have enough quality in their ranks to deal with the absences. Sanchez has yet to play a game so his inclusion wouldl be a bit of an unknown, but he is a solid player.

At this level any disruption is a bad thing, giving the opponents some momentum on a psychological level, i suppose.

It's too close to call with confidence, and probably betting 'in play' is a better idea after you've has a wee punt on the pre match odds.
Watching the game develop makes it far easier to bet with confidence...(unless you're me, then you get your balls chopped (by the Dutch) in the first 60secs of the 2nd half in last nights U20 game)

Good luck, whichever way you go...stick with your instincts, mate.

[raven]

cool, but how about zanetti and heinze 1st scorers? That's the 2 i'm interested in.

[Kiko]

There you go there mate - im about to go out for a walk with the girlfriend so thats going to have to do for you's all.

Good Luck Guys!

[Kiko]

Final Bets are - Bit of a change now.

Argentina -1 goal handicap 9/4
Riquelme anytime GS 2/1
Figuera FGS 5/1

Have just noticed - anyone explain to me why Zinha is 25/1 Stan James and 8/1 Coral??

[fasteddy]

Game on!...good luck to everyone..(but especially ME!)

[fasteddy]

That's a seriously defensive line up from Mexico. No guessing what they're out to do, then.