World Youth Championships QF June 24/25

[fasteddy]

Germany vs Brasil is also the match up in the Confeds Cup on 25th June, so i'd think there will be a bit more attention paid to this game , in the hope that some patriotic 'edge' can be gained.

Germany eventaully made it past China, but I didn't think that they were anything special in that performance.
Goalkeeping errors were mainly to blame for at least 2 of the German's goals, so I'm not prepared to give them the respect many might for the victory.

China were very naive in the tactics played over the last 20mins of the match.
Positionally they left a lot to be desired, with both flanks being wide open even though Germany were constantly feeding balls into those areas. China's coach decided against shoring up the defence , and failed to supply any fresh legs as well.
Germany were glad to take the openings and eventually they made one of them count and got the 3rd, and the winner.
They are a typically physical side, but against the chinese players they failed to make this count. Many times were they out muscled on the ball.
Also, China showed the greater technical skills, with a lot of nifty footwork leaving their opponents in their wake.

Brasil have continued to be solid enough in their game, and have managed to proghress without yet setting the tournament alight.
They are all home based players except for the defender Filipe ( Ajax) and this allows a better understanding and team spirit to develop.
Syria made them work for the win, andthe fact that it took a penalty rather than a goal from open play, shows how well they kept the S Americans under pressure.

Being able to stifle their naturally flowing game is obviously key to beating them, but I feel that the young Brasil squad showed that they could cope with these tactics and in fact were able to match the Syrians in this area and still step it up a gear towards the end.

Brasil have the ammunition down the flanks to cause Germany a lot of problems, just as China did.
If they maintain their solid defensive play this should allow them to get at the heart of their opponents with the quick passes and fleet footed passing.

Even though Brasil have yet to show the scoring power that is associated with their country's teams , this is not what it's all about. A 1-0 win will be fine, and gladly taken. If they win 5-4 so be it, and we'll all have witnessed a thriller, but the fans and the young players just want the victory and move another step closer to the Final.

For me Germany lacked any real invention in their play, settling for high balls and chasing in off the shoulders of the defence.
I don't think Brasil will let them get away with this , so that means that another avenue will have to be found. I can't see them changing their gameplan at this stage of the tournament. They will have to hope they can over power the Brasilians and hopefully nick an early lead.

Brasil can only get better based on what's been shown thus far. Tonight might provide the satge for them to make the move to the higher level.
The opening 0-0 against Nigeria has a different look to it now that the African's have shown just how strong they are.
Lots of positives to be taken from brasil's games, and I hope we see them being utilised tonight.

Team news.
Brasil :
Brazil are without Diego( MF), who has flown home with a shoulder problem and now Ernane(MF) has emerged as the latest injury concern. He had to have scans to determine the full extent of his hamstring strain and he is rated as very doubtful for the quarter-final at the Willem II Stadium.
Evandro and Fellype Gabriel stand by to come into his position if Ernane does not get the green light to play.
Better news has come from defenders Leonardo and Gladstone, who were both not fit to start the match with Syria, but are expected to be ready for the full 90 minutes against Germany - plus extra-time and those penalties if required.

Germany:
Only Nicky Adler is rated as an injury worry for Germany.

[Kiko]

[kompressaur]

Cheers Eddy I'll have a look at Hills odds and if their even slightly better than the bet365 ones above i'll have some. Looking at it i dont think i can get odds at Hills. 4/5 with Pinnacle mind.

Good luck

[daikoku]

Another cracking write up Eddy. I've yet to bet on this tournament because I really don't know much about the teams involved. Now we're at the Quarter-finals though I guess there's a bit of form to go on.

Firstly, the odds of 5.00 for a German victory at Stan James are surely way too big. As I said before I don't know much about these teams but it's the quarter-finals and the gap in quality can't be that big.

Looking at the handicap market I could be tempted to have a slice of Germany(+0.5) trading around 2.00 on Betfair.

I'm also interested in the under/overs market. Both teams games in the group stages all finished under 2.5 goals. In the second round Germany were forced to attack more by a Chinese team who love offensive football. All of China's group games finished over 2.5 goals. Brazil met Syria in the second round and won 1-0.

I can see both sides battling it out in a low scoring game here and could be tempted with the 1.85 for < 2.5 goals at Betfair.

I'm away to ponder this one :think

[MickeyPaul]

That's exactly what I was thinking Daik regarding Germany. I keep coming into this thread to post then I realise I don't really have anything to say other than, 'isn't that a little generous?' :think

[crowie]

Daik,

A few quid available at 1.87 on Betdaq for the under 2.5 in Brazil Germany. I have had a little punt on that, as you said, both teams look like they normally play a tight game and the fact that its now knockout football could see both sides not wanting to lose the crucial first goal.

[daikoku]

I know what you mean Mickey . I reckon the 5.00 is value but as I don't really have a clue about the teams I can't really put it in context.

Cheers for the Betdaq info Crowie, if I was going to take a punt on this match it'd definitely be the unders. I'll wait to see what prices are available when I get home from work.

Most likely I'll leave it as I've already got 5 units on Shels tonight .

[fasteddy]

I agree with you both on the 'generous' price for Germany. Taking the +0.5 handicap is also a good bet.
It's an open game in terms of the 'pricing', but I just haven't seen enough from the German squad to make me think that they can win it. Anything is possible...you don't need to tell me that!..oh no.
As for the unders bet...that's all going to depend on who scores first, and when.
If Germany and early,..I can't see them holding out for 90mins with a clean sheet..in which case an Overs might be in order
If Brasil..well that's different. They CAN hold out, but as they did in their last game, they want to be seen to be an offensive team and I'd reckon they'll try to keep going for a second as long as they didn't leave themselves too open.
Easy to write about it, eh? Bloody murder getting it right!!

Good luck on your bets, lads! Let's hope someone here wins a few quid on this ...COME ON!!!!!

[fasteddy]

And so it continues.

[MickeyPaul]

Hang in there eddy! You even said yourself, and I quote:

Taking the +0.5 handicap is also a good bet.

[fasteddy]

I'll probably put the 'curse' on this one but...I took Nigeria +1 on the AH..@ 1.85....taken an early lead 1-0 against Holland.....the suspense is killing me!!

[MIKEROBB]

Great write up again Eddy.
Took Nigeria on my vbookie.
African nations always seem to throw out exciting young teams and I thought the price on offer for Nigeria was a bit too good to resist.
Keep up the good work Eddy you've made this an event worth betting on

[fasteddy]

cheers mikerobb.
Watching it live and it's Nigeria 1-0 at HT.
These two sides look to be very rough round the edges . Holland are in complete dissaray in defence. The Africans are very strong, but they waste an amazing amount of chances through wild shots on goal when a smart pass would have paid dividends. It's a feature of this nation, though. The BIG shot, the screamerrrrr...that's the one they all want.

Well, bet365 have Nigeria at 4/1 for next goal: +0.75 on the handicap @ 2.05 and 6/5 to win outright.
I'll have a bit that 4/1, and go in again on the new handicap.

Holland MUST compose themselves or it's all over. They had 63% possession up until the last 15 mins when it dropped to 53%.
No guarantees but unless my eyes deceive me ..Nigeria look the better side on the ball.

The Nigerian defence can be a bit chaotic , but Christ!..do they react quickly, and in numbers..

[fasteddy]

Call me a knob....go on..I deserve it...sitting here tapping away and the cunts have let Holland in...didn't even get to watch my bet get shafted!!

[fasteddy]

Nigeria have just had a 10 min assault on the Dutch goalmouth, it was like watching human pinball....got me going crazy here...