28-31st Jan: African Cup Of Nations - 3rd Group Games

[Napoleon Solo]

28/01/08 17:00 Ghana v Morocco 2.05 3.40 4.75
28/01/08 17:00 Guinea v Namibia 1.28 6.20 17.00
29/01/08 17:00 Cote D'Ivoire v Mali 2.38 2.10 6.00
29/01/08 17:00 Nigeria v Benin 1.25 5.25 15.00
30/01/08 17:00 Cameroon v Sudan 1.15 7.50 17.00
30/01/08 17:00 Egypt v Zambia 1.55 4.33 8.50
31/01/08 17:00 Senegal v South Africa
31/01/08 17:00 Tunisia v Angola

[Napoleon Solo]

2nd Group Games

Group A
Ghana 1 v 0 Namibia BBC
Guinea 3 v 2 Morocco BBC

Group B
Ivory Coast 4 v 1 Benin BBC
Nigeria 0 v 0 Mali BBC

Group C
Cameroon 5 v 1 Zambia BBC
Egypt 3 v 0 Sudan BBC

Group D
Senegal 1 v 3 Angola BBC
Tunisia 3 v 1 South Africa BBC

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Napoleon whats your thoughts on a lay of Guinea?

I thought they were a bit of a shambles defensively in what i have seen of them. Plenty of mistakes and they had just been fortunate not to be punished yet.

I know Namibia are no great shakes but Guinea don't merit being such a short price.

Tempted to lay them but would be interested to hear your thoughts?

[Napoleon Solo]

Ghana v Morocco

Ghana haven't really impressed me so far this tournament. They were lucky to take all three points against Ghana, though that wonderful strike by Muntari was probably deserving of all three points. They created plenty of chances against a frankly poor Guinea defence, but were less than convincing at the back.

A battling win over Namibia was uninspiring and drew severe criticism from the Ghanaian fans and press. Ghana struggled to break down a resolute Namibian defence and could have conceded an equaliser after Namibia created several very good chances. The criticism heaped on the team after this game almost prompted the walkout of the Gyan brothers. Laryea Kingston was also booked during the match, his second of the tournament, meaning he will miss the game against Morocco. All is not well in the Ghana camp!

Morocco started the tournament with an impressive hammering of Namibia, thanks in part to Soufiane Alloudi. The Moroccan striker is still recovering from the injury picked up during that game and is rated doubtful for this game against Ghana.

Morocco's game against Guinea was played at a frantic pace, both teams creating plenty of chances, attackers were most definitely on top during this game.

Morocco have proved that they're a very attacking side this tournament, though questions remain about their defensive abilites with both Namibia and Guinea creating plenty of chances. However, the same defensive frailties can also be attributed to Ghana. The Ghanaians have a very strong work ethic with a fully fit midfield, but the absence of Laryea Kingston will be a big blow. With the unrest in the Ghana camp, I could see them being rather distracted and not all too focused on this game.

Morocco to beat Ghana @ 4.40 (JetBull) - 1 point
Morocco AH(+0.5) v Ghana @ 1.92 (Pinnacle) - 3 points
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 (StanJames) - 2 points

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

I asked for the damn Guinea match

[Napoleon Solo]

Well Kiko.....

Guinea v Namibia

Guinea weren't brilliant in their first game against Ghana, they probably deserved a draw but both defences were a shambles and they possibly got off lightly on occasions.

The game against Morocco also saw both teams defences on the fritz, the game could have gone either way, even before the sending off of Pascal Feindouno. Guinea were far better going forward but most of their best attacking play was through Feindouno, who also scored two of the goals. Needless to say, he'll be badly missed.

Namibia started the tournament in calamitous form, conceding early to Morocco and having to chase the game from there on. They created opportunities to score, in fact they did pull a goal back to make it 2-1, but whilst always chasing the game they left themselves open at the back.

The second game of the tournament against Ghana was a much fairer reflection of the way Namibia usually play. They defended resolutely, limiting Ghana to few chances in front of goal and could have even grabbed a draw thanks to chances created on the counter-attack as Ghana pushed forward.

Guinea need to win this, but could find the going tough against what is bound to be a resolute Namibian defence. Without Feindouno, Guinea are going to have to find someone else to dictate play. If they become desperate and push too many players forward, a defence that is already quite shaky could be exposed to a Namibian side which can create quite decent chances on the counter-attack.

Namibia to beat Guinea @ 17.00 (StanJames) - 1 point
Namibia (AH+2) v Guinea @ 1.92 (Canbet) - 3 points

[Napoleon Solo]

Originally Posted by Kiko

I asked for the damn Guinea match

Cnut! You'll get what you're given!

[bakakadassa]

The games of today are crucial and have been surrounde by many rumours (and some mishaps).

Between the Gyna bros threateneing to lave Ghana's camp, to the bribe attempt (by an Asian cyndicate) to Namibia players, and the rumours of Ghana & Morocco fixing a 3-2 win for the Moroccans (in order for both teams to go through) I cannot have much faith in any pich.

However, I agree with the Namibia +2 in essence because Namibia now will have to try not to lose at all, as they were the ones reporting the bribery attempt and this works as an extra motive, plus they're at ease with nothing to lose.

On the other hand Guinea will be missing their skippera and main striker, and I can't see them doing much better w/o him.

Morocco v Ghana also has the inclination for a big score as Morocco must go all-out attack and Ghana may find some gaps in the Moroccan backline. However, Ghana's defence ain't that good either so games on both sides is more likely than not.

[Martens]

i disagree

i also consider ghana below expectations, is far far away from the team we watched in last world cup,

however, dont forget that they are the hosts,no chance imo this home team to risk the defeat today, all scenarios about fixing are pure nonseses

imo, ghana will secure qualification today, playing very defensively

Under 2.5 goals

Draw

as for the other game, i am surprised to see so low odds in a match between average african teams so,

Guinea v Namimbia NO BET

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by bakakadassa

and the rumours of Ghana & Morocco fixing a 3-2 win for the Moroccans (in order for both teams to go through)

Anyone interested in that scoreline might like to know you can back Morocco 3-2 at 41 at Sporting Odds, and you can currently lay that scoreline at 32 at Betfair.

[AnothrSpacecat]

29/01/08 17:00 Cote D'Ivoire v Mali 2.38 2.10 6.00

have i missed something here? ivory coast have already qualified but mali were stinking against nigeria, id expect the ivory coast to hammer them from what i saw on friday night.

but i guess i have missed something... brave layers on betfair offering 2.72 on the IC win

[bakakadassa]

Originally Posted by AnothrSpacecat

have i missed something here? ivory coast have already qualified but mali were stinking against nigeria, id expect the ivory coast to hammer them from what i saw on friday night.

but i guess i have missed something... brave layers on betfair offering 2.72 on the IC win

Yes, I believe you are missing the fact that a mere drawwill guarantee teh Ivoirians top spot, and guarantee Mali 2nd spot, which is why most bookies are expecting it and some even make it odds-on (less than evens)

That and the fact that Cote d'Ivoire usually filed their 2nd string after they win the 1st 2 games and guarantee qualification makes it worth a lay... at least until we see how the 1st group final standings end up

[Napoleon Solo]

It's because Cote D'Ivoire only need a draw to finish top whilst Mali only need a draw to qualify. I wouldn't rule out a Mali win as I could see Cote D'Ivoire resting their better players!

Anyone else getting Chucklevision on BBCi rather than the ACN games?

Chuckle Brothers! Bah!

[Napoleon Solo]

Well, a shit day yesterday made even worse by the fact that I couldn't watch either of the match because the fuckin' Chuckle Brothers were on repeat!

Only Namibia's draw saved a bad day from being a terrible day! I did go overboard on the bets a bit, so it's my own fault really.

Anyway, apparently Ghana were brilliant yesterday, while Morocco were apparently awful! Not that we've got to worry about the Atlas Lions anymore as they're back off home! Guinea should have beaten Namibia but missed a host of chances in front of goal. Namibia threatened plenty on the counter-attack though!

So Ghana go through as winners of Group A and will face the runners-up of group B, which will be one of three teams - Cote D'Ivoire, Mali or Nigeria. Guinea will face the group winner, either Cote D'Ivoire or Mali!

So, onto todays games....

Cote D'Ivoire v Mali

The odds say it all really, a draw would be the favorable result for both team, but current best of of 1.97 are just ridiculous. I think a great deal will depend on team news for this one.

Cote D'Ivoire's Didier Drogba has stated that they really have no preference for who they'd like to face in the knockout stages as they have to beat some very good teams anyway. They also have history when it comes to fielding weakened teams having already qualified as they did so in Egypt in 2006.

Mali need only a draw and if their performances in the first two games are anything to go by, they'll struggle to get that against a full-strength Cote D'Ivoire team.

If Cote D'Ivoire put out a full strength team, current odds of 2.62 (WBX) are just too big. However, if they play a somewhat weakened team, an interest on Mali at odds of 8.00 (Fonbet) or the AH(0) at 3.50 (Betway) could well pay off! No bets at present though!

[luddite71]

Originally Posted by AnothrSpacecat

have i missed something here? ivory coast have already qualified but mali were stinking against nigeria, id expect the ivory coast to hammer them from what i saw on friday night.

but i guess i have missed something... brave layers on betfair offering 2.72 on the IC win

Are Mali really that bad???

Thought defensively they were superb against Nigeria and looked the more dangerous going forward for the most part.

i've got a sneaky feeling they might beat an unmotivated ivory coast team.