Horse Racing Tips Tuesday 4th October

[beamer]

Leicester 2.40 Stillietoesthemud 1.5 pt win @ 14/1 (Hills/ Boyles)

Tricky fillies h/cap but Stillietoesthemud can possibly be forgiven her last two runs ( hammpered / trip & drawn 11/11 at Wolver).

Returns back to 6f on turf and although the 8lb rise for her maiden win looks harsh, Topliss takes off 3lb.

Most of the opposition lack consistency, but my pick is related to Marjury Daw, who took 12 runs before getting a win, then progressed up the h/cap by 30lb. Same trainer, same mare, hopefully same profile.

Leicester 5.40 El Decay 2 pts win @ 10/1 (365)

I never really want to touch McKay horses, a look at his recent results and some significant drifts makes his horses ones to avoid.

Milton Of Campasie was one of those horse to avoid that runs in the 2.40 with Culhane on board. last years results could possibly be down to the Balding stable and maybe the moves to Guest may see some improvement.

El Decay was picked before I even realised it was a McKay horse, and having picked it on form I'm sticking with it and I will trade out pre race if I notice any obvious movement.

ED is re-applied with C/P's for the 1st time since joining Guest 5 runs back. His last 6 wins came with the c/p's on.

Although you could argue he's being primed for Southwell, but his mark of 53 on turf is way below his last winning turf mark of 65.

7f on this ground looks fine and he looks like he will get a hassle free lead.

No money has been staked on this horse yet, so if any kind sole can but me off this bet, please talk me out of it, as the trainer's last winner was in 1994 ( Makes Grayson look awesome).

Southwell 3.20 Aureate 2 pts win

Trainer form: Since he returned to training in 2004, he's failed to train a winner from 36 attempts.
His stats in his 1st attempt at training were slightly better up to 2005: 4 from 118.

Hopefully a few layers will be prepared to get stuck into this on the trainers profile alone.

I don't want to go into the trainer's ability or reasoning why he does it, but Aureate only ran 12 days ago, so I'm prepared to take his fitness on trust and that he can't possibly deter physically in that period.

His last race at Wolverhampton wasn't a bad run and two winners have already come out of that race. That was his 3rd run in September after a summer break, which should hopefully have him near peak condition.

Although he has form at Wolver, he was a far better horse at Southwell with form of 1,1,2, with one win a h/cap off 84 and the other runs in decent claimers. Those races date back to 2009 and since moving to this trainer, his A/W rating has dropped 19lb to 55. The h/capper gave him a rating of 82 after his last Southwell run, 27lb higher than today. I'm not claiming he will achieve anything near those previous marks, but the combination of fitness and return to fibresand, should result in a decent performance.

The fact that trainer only has two moderate horse in horses in training does emphasise the need for a decent price.

Hammer should also benefit from his recent run behind Aureate and probably worth a couple of quid in excess of 50, although the jockey is a complete unknown to me.

Holes can be picked in most of the opposition, but I'm hoping the likes of Illustration attract market support ( 320K/ 1st run in a h/cap, but very late to the racecourse), to get Aureate drifting out.

Cheers beamer