Thu 23rd June

[wlively]

2.55 Warwick - Johnny Hancocks

3.30 Warwick - Flying Applause

[SAMOAN]

2:45 Newcastle - CAPTIVITY - Could easily go to a newcomer and this one seems to have a similar chance on breeding to his stable mate.

[SAMOAN]

Wrong Godolphin horse in the 2:45, with the other one winning at 16's. Not much for tonight either , but should pop back in later. Nothing of massive appeal, but going for a possible improver at Tipperary :-

5:50 Tipperary - CHOCOLATE HILLS - Related to a couple of decent flat sorts and her overall pedigree looks quite strong. Big disappointment on debut, when only beating 2 home, but should have learnt a lot from that. Stable does get 2yo winners and Johnny Murtagh on board

[Seen]

6.40 Leicester
Serena Brotherton is by far and away the best jockey in this race and is in top form recently (has a 24% strike rate this year and has won 5 of her last 8 rides) and she can win this on Clear Ice, who is running really well and the only unplaced effort recently came when badly drawn two runs back. Probably well drawn in 9, he stays 6f so will be strong at the finish over this stiff 5f, especially if they go off too fast (as they often do in amateur races). Currently 3/1.

7.10 Leicester
RED SOCKS looks poor despite several placed efforts, and none of the trainers of the newcomers have good FTO records. West Leake Hare looks to have a strong chance here after a decent 2nd place on his debut. He will need further than this ideally but the opposition here is so weak he can get away with this trip and should win. Currently 1/1.

Strong EW double for me, place part pays around evens so stake returned if both placed. Win double pays 7/1. No doubt one will win and the other finshes 4th

[ONEDUNME]

I'm taking a gamble on Orwellian at 12/1 in the 7.10. I'm looking for a clue in the markets and there doesn't seem to be one but the favourite is way too short at even money to tempt.

Likewise in the upcoming 700 at Hamilton, bet365 and boylesports have Revitalise at 12/1 as well.

Two 5pt ew bets and an ew double for me and I'll move this post into my system thread later.

[SAMOAN]

7:10 Leicester - HI THERE and GADREEL - As said by Seen above, none of the trainers have a paricularly good record FTO, The winner could still come from the Meehan or Fanshawe yard, but the percentage call is to oppose. Bound to be some improvers amongst the once raced and hopeful it is one or both of mine. Both are by leading first season sire Dark Angel and both are bred to be decent. Richard Hannon trains the latter and this would be my pefrerred choice of the 2.

Small each way bets on both and a Reverse Forecast.

[Seen]

Clear Ice 3RD 9/4
West Leake Hare WON 10/11

Only a tiny loss on the EW bet, Clear Ice only beaten around 1/2 a length but still a little disappointed he couldn't win that race.

[Seen]

7.40 Leicester
A terrible seller, I've narrowed this down to Izzet, Chilledtothebone, and Chillie Peppar, and I'm going for the latter as it's easily the biggest priced one of the three. Found 6f too short last time, had previously ran well on seasonal debut. A worry that he's best fresh but worth a chance at around 16/1, small ew for me.

[beamer]

Leic 8.40 Mighty Mambo

second run for new trainer took my eye. was waiting for cash to come and 25/1 into 18/1 enough of a nibble for me.

beamer

[ONEDUNME]

It can't have escaped everyone's notice that you'd be well up if you just backed Fallon in that last two races recently.

[ONEDUNME]

A quick look going back to 15th of June, I make him about £160 up for £10 stakes for the last two rides at the evening meetings. That's a hell of a record.

He's at Newmarket tomorrow night