Sun 19th June

[wlively]

4.10 Pontefract - Vulcanite

[Bigkegman]

3.20 hereford - super strong or simply strong

cannae mind exact name and web on trAin aint that good

[ONEDUNME]

I'm looking at the 520 race at Hereford and I think there's value to be had outside the first three in the market.

The favourite, Sumner, is a serial loser with three 2's next to its last three runs. Admittedly, it trounced all but one of its rivals in its last race but came up against one that was way too good for it. Nevertheless, I get suspicious when I see a row of 2's against a horse. There's only so many times you can pass it off as bad luck before you start to worry whether it just hasn't got the fight for the battle. In any event, the animal doesn't appear to like today's trip of 2 miles having finished last and third last at its last two attempts at it (and there appears to be no excuses due to the ground).

The second favourite, Just One Thing is possibly a dangerous one to write of as I don't like to dismiss improving horses but it's been put up 8 lb for its last win two weeks ago. Its form also suggests that it prefers harder ground than today's going and the combination of that and the extra weight might well be enough to stop it.

The third favourite, Goodtimetoby, I've put a line through because it finished 12 lengths behind Just One Thing last time out. I've watched this animal and its jumping is not the best. I'd back it to improve on its last outing with regard to Just One Thing (taking into account the extra weight) but it doesn't strike me as being good enough to win.

So we're down to horses around the 6/1 mark, any of which would probably be value for an each way bet for three places and 1/5 the odds.

I've seen Wee Ziggy tipped by a couple of people but, as with Goodtimetoby, its jumping is very dodgy and it will need to get a clear round to win.

That leaves me with two to choose from and it really has been a mental tug of war to split them. I've been reluctant to scratch Rince Donn purely because it's having its first run for a new trainer and that worries me a lot but Twiston-Davies' horses have been running well enough recently for me to come down on the side of PAPRADON. Its jumping has not always been the best either (it unseated its rider last time out) but it will definitely like the ground and it's the one I'm going to take a change on.

15pts ew 7/1 with Boylesports best odd guaranteed, three places 8 runners (1 non runner)

[SAMOAN]

Tough yesterday, with no absolute shockers, but all running below expectations. POLYDAMOS was widely available at 25's on the early prices, but was backed into 12's. Actually made marginally more from him losing in the end, but the money looked significant and I think they might still have a good 'un on their hands. MAGIC RHYTHM was also backed ( 33's into 12's ) and ran OK in 3rd. Should be able to make his mark, now eligible for handicaps.

Just as tough today ( though lacking the quality of recent days ) and going with the following -

3:00 Hexham - BUOY GEORGE - Obviously the less fancied of the 2 Irish, but the small stable is 2 from 8 with their runners over here. Decent NH Pedigree and related to enough winners to be of interest. Tongue tie on again today, but also has the assistance of first time cheek pieces. Total " punt " on my part, but just have a feeling this one could be dangerous.

5:10 Pontefract - STAR COMMANDER - Last 2 efforts, both pretty decent and on both occasions looked to need today's extra 2f. Lots of unexposed sorts in the field, but I do feel mine also still has scope to improve.

5:35 Gowran Park - CLIFF CLIMBER - Bit of a no - brainer for me as he represents one of my favourite bumper trainers in Colin Bowe and is by my favourite bumper sire in Milan. Looked a bit one paced over shorter trips, so the 2m4f, should prove ideal. There is another of Milan's in the field , along with 2 of King's Theatre's. Of these, MINELLA HUMOUR, is the one I fear most.

5:40 Pontefract - MYJESTIC MELODY - Arguably not the worst of debuts, when 12l behind Wootten Bassett ( Easy Ticket and Jibaal, both 2 time winners were in the field as well ), but did prove a bit of a weak finisher in this and 2 subsequent runs. Quite a stoutly bred, Majestic Missile however and should have strenghened up over the winter. Fitness taken on trust, but the stable is in decent nick and don't mind taking a chance at 28's