Tactical withdrawal's

[jtw1]

Been on holiday all week and for the first time bought the Racing Ahead magazine for something to pass a bit of time with and found an interesting article from Colin Magee inside .
Basically it questions whether some runners which are withdrawn as non runners are done so because of the draw bias they had to face .
The 2 tracks in question were CHESTER and BEVERLEY , probably the 2 course's with the most percieved track bias over 5-7f in the UK.

He listed 13 declared non-runners from last season at Chester who were to have ran from high numbered stalls who next time out [ within 14 days ] were found to have had 4 winners amonst them @ 4/1, 13/2 , 10/1 and 10/3.
Also there were two 2nds and a couple of 3rd's , all at EW prices where at least your stake would have been returned.

The thinking behind this is that these horses are considered 'fit to win' but due to the track bias that winning chance is negated by the draw they were given therefore the horse is declared a non runner and is held back for another prize to come along [ within 14 days to ensure fitness is still a factor ]

So with all that in mind i had a look back to last weeks CHESTER and BEVERLY meetings .
2 stood out from Chester , SIX OF HEARTS was due to run from stall 17 in what turned out to be a 14 runner race.
DAISYCLIPPER was due to run from stall 13 in what turned out to be a 12 runner race .

Over at BEVERLY , PLUMSUM was due to run from stall 10 , 9 eventually ran .

PLUMSUM does not have any entries in the coming days so is probaly best ignored , However SIX OF HEARTS has been declared at the 4 days stage to run in a NAVAN Handicap on Sunday and even better we have DAISYCLIPPER declared on Saturday at Doncaster's evening meeting , 7.40 , and interestingly P HANAGHAN has been booked by trainer ANN DUFFIELD for whom Hanaghan has a 26% strke rate for .

Therefore BET No 1 is 10pt win DAISYCLIPPER in the 7.40 at Donny.

Of course there won't be too many selections during the season but as long as we can pin-point some winners , or even decent EW shots , i think we can hopefully show a profit come November

[ONEDUNME]

Like it mate.

Of course everyone knows this happens and commentators even make thinly disguised references to it without openly accusing trainers of being dodgy, but ive never thought of using the info for future gambles.

I'm equally interested in the comment about racing ahead magazine. I take it you'd recommend it? Do you know when, in the month, it comes out? I'll get my newsagent to get me a copy ordered. I've just looked online for an electronic version to by but only see an option to order via snail-mail

[jtw1]

It's an interesting read ODM , as i say it's the first time i've actually bought it so time will tell how worthwhile it is .
I would imagine the next issue will be out in the next week or two as the curent issue had a preview of the Kentucky Derby [ran last sat]

Keep an eye out in the newsagents

[beamer]

It's something I try to keep an eye on.

It's possible that the self certificates are the strongest one's to watch for, even though aren't allowed to run for a few days I think.

Good luck beamer

[ONEDUNME]

Will do mate. Daisyclipper looks to be opening up at about 12/1 so it looks like being an each way bet today.

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by beamer

It's something I try to keep an eye on.

It's possible that the self certificates are the strongest one's to watch for, even though aren't allowed to run for a few days I think.

Good luck beamer

Not allowed to run for 6 days after a self-cert .

[beamer]

Thanks JTW.

Hanagans comments from ATR site:

I ride again for Ann in the next, the Gilkes Fencing Maiden on DAISYCLIPPER. I’ve ridden her on both appearances so far over six and she’s getting there all the time. It’s the same distance here but it could be that she’s going to be better when she tries a bit further — although I don’t think this race will take a great deal of winning. The one we all probably have to beat is Dark Isle who travels up from Lambourn and looked as though dropping back a furlong would suit him last time.

beamer

[jtw1]

Backed from 33's down to a starting price of 16's and so close !!!

Finished 2nd and really thought we were off to a cracking start , hope some were smart enough to have an EW bet .... i wasn't unfortunately .....

Bet 2 - 5pt EW SIX OF HEARTS in the 2.45 @ Navan on Sunday

[beamer]

Ran a fine race to finish 2nd @ 16/1. You could consider yourself slightly unlucky to be beaten by a horse that had been running in bumpers, although Main Beach's family did give him a chance. Shame i didn' bother looking before the race.

It's also possible the 1st two come down the slowest part the track, unless the rest simply got it wrong.

well done

beamer

[Punter]

Just backed six of hearts, gl

[jtw1]

A promising start imo .

DAISYCUTTER - 2nd @ 16/1 [ backed down from 33's ]
SIX OF HEARTS - 5th @ 11/2 Fav [opened at 8's]

As we can see both were well supported in the market and SIX OF HEARTS was only a sh-hd behind the 4th , just missing out on an EW payout.
Looked at his form and it did seem a strange decision to run him over 5f when he had done all his winning over 7f !
I see he has an entry in the G3 Ballycorus Stakes at Leopardstown at the end of this month , a race he won last season after running 4th over 6f .
Could be worth keeping an eye on if he takes his chance .

Next meeting to look out for is CHESTER on Saturday coming [where DAISYCUTTER has an entry in the 2.25] , followed by BEVERLEY on Weds 25th .

Anyone think we should consider any other courses on either side of the Irish Sea where there is a significant draw bias over 5/6 or 7 f ??

[beamer]

Anyone think we should consider any other courses on either side of the Irish Sea where there is a significant draw bias over 5/6 or 7 f ??

I'm getting stressed thinking about the so called obvious ones, but the problem is a lot are now reliant on going/ watering.

Newcastle and Newmarket ( July) always seem to have "super highways" along the nearside rail, but it is dependent upon the going. Ripon would be another althoughit's not a track I'm familiar with.

If I had to put up a candidate it would be Sandown 5f. Problem I've got is I don't know if the stats for the starting stalls have been reversed with the change of stalls numbering.

Although the stats may not back it up but there have been many withdrawals at Kempton A/W, for the horses drawn out wide.

beamer

[jtw1]

Tried to avoid the 'going dependant ' bias [mainly]

Back to business and the main races i'll be looking at are those metioned in the article , namely 5/6/7f races at Chester / Beverley.

In addition the 7f at EPSOM where High No's are disadvantaged.
RIPON'S 8f where again it's Low No's that are to be avoided.
THIRSK'S 5f is a distance where LOW No's are to be avoided but only when it's Good going or better.

Also will highlight the reason's , thanks to the BHA website , for the withdrawals and i think we'll be looking for the self-certs rather than vets certs but it'll be worthwhile highlighting both until a pattern emerges.

And to start we have 2 nr's in the 2.25 at Chester and our friend DASIYCLIPPER is one [ drawn 7 of 9] and a self-cert , CALAF [ drawn 6 of 9] has a vets cert..

In the 3.25 TIGHT LIPPED has a self cert and was due to run from stall 7 in a 10 runner race while PITT RIVERS [vets cert] was to emerge from stall 9 .

Therefore within the next 14 days were looking for DAISYCLIPPER and
TIGHT LIPPED running .
Also CALAF and PITT RIVERS are also on the radar but you'd think imagine the Vets cert would ensure they don't appear too soon.

[Seen]

RIPON'S 8f where again it's Low No's that are to be avoided.

It used to be low to be avoided (and over 7f) but the stalls have been reversed so now it's high to be avoided. Only on fast ground too.

Well done on the promising start, you don't need many 16/1 winners to make it profitable.

[jtw1]

Cheers SEEN

Got things mixed up as DAISYCLIPPER has a vets while CALAF has the self cert .
So CALAF is the one to take note of .

Also there's beena few withdrawals at Chester -

PRINCE OF VASA - 1.50 - 'TRAVEL !!' is down as the official reason , maybe the fact he was due to start from stall 12 in a 12 runner 6f sprint was more to do with it.
FEAR NOTHING - 1.50 - Self Cert . Drawn 9 in the 12 runner race.

GRAND STITCH - 5.10 - Self Cert , Drawn 10 in an 11 runner 6f race.

All of these are being noted if they run in the next 14 days.