Fri 29th April

[beamer]

Piiss poor from racing rulers as usual. Ideal opportunity to increase levy and we get a standard card put on.

Not looked at Donny but one looks a bet for me.

Leic 3.15 Abbsa Lutte @ 9/1

A few guestimates involved in this pick, but she looks overpriced IMO.

The 8yo mare has 21 runs without a win, on a few occasions carrying mine and few others cash. Plenty of those runs can be put down to crap rides, getting mark down and a combination of being over raced and out of form.

The over raced issue is still a worry but the return to turf is a positive, with her best speed figs achieved on g/f. Her general flat turf profile is misleading as she was initially run on wrong ground/trip.

Her last win was off 75 on turf and comes here off 68 today. her best run last year was actually off 79 over the same ground/going conditions.

Jockey booking as an obvious boost, although I'm guessing Eaves has been claimed for Donny and Queally possibly cannot do the weight.

I haven't really looked at the opposition, apart from finding Norville hard to assess of his high mark back on turf.

Cheers beamer

[Seen]

Hi Beamer

this one has had me scratching my head this morning - you probably remember I tipped this one up back in Jan and you warned me about the jockey (Joseph Young) and the horse finished a fair 3rd under a terribly weak ride.

The horse seems to need a really fast pace to run off as she travels too well really, although the fact she's 0/23 in fields of 14+ contradicts that. Does she need a rail to race against, or is it that she just needs covering up? They are drawn on the stands rail today but they often go middle. There's plenty of early pace in this so she should have no excuses I guess. I don't like this type of horse tbh.

Flowing Cape would be my pick, no chance in a Listed event here last time but other 4 course wins all solid runs (4132, arguably unlucky not to have won all 4), stays 7f well so a fast-run 6f today should be ideal.

[Seen]

First two races suggest the stands side is not the place to be.

[beamer]

and few others cash

That meant you Seen. You are right about Flowing Cape looking well treated and I didn't realise it was around the 10.0 mark earlier.

I failed to mention pace earlier but I do think the race will be set up for either of our picks. My earlier view was that AL will be able to tuck across very early as I can see at least 4 pacers. She does roll quite a bit, as she is a huge mare and ideally I'd like Hannagan to show some balls and keep to the rail.

That Folkstone race I mentioned from last year does read well to me, with winner winning the next two off 10lb higher and the 3rd also being raised. She travelled really well until coming under pressure off the rail, so I'm hoping for a brave run.

Sumbe was one I thought was being ready for another race, but I took the 32.0 simply on price and traded out @ 14.0. Was an expensive buy sold off cheaply but is looking on decent mark.


beamer

[beamer]

I never watched them mate. Probably means I've done my dosh.

beamer

[Seen]

Flowing Cape 2nd, touched 1.31

looked all over the winner to me from a long way out, winner fought back strongly, front pair pulled well clear

no excuses for Absa Lutte, switched to the favoured centre, disappointingly one paced. One to avoid for sure.

[beamer]

Hope you traded it Seen.

I was close to saving on Norville but could'nt be certain how he'd go on the ground.


beamer

[Seen]

Traded for small profit, backed it place too.

Norville must be ahead of the handicapper to hold off the strong staying 2nd - both worth sticking with, especially the runner-up at Leicester

[beamer]

Final bet on a crap racing day.

Donny 4.10 Archie Rice @ 8.4

Despite looking totally exposed, he's only run over similar distance and grounf on one occasion when beaten but was off 7lb higher.

he looked to settle better when hurdlind and could be fairly treated for a fit horse.

beamer

[Punter]

(Font 5.30) Royal Wedding a drifter to 4/1...... was surely a rare gift from the bookies.

"No pressure then," said Nick Gifford when course MC Derek Thompson suggested there is £10m riding on the topical tip of the day!

Gifford said: "I think he has a real good chance. He's in good form but it will be dependent on him getting into a good rhythm. He looked the winner at Stratford but there was no time to get a blow into him round that fast track and this slightly shorter 2m6f is more ideal. He'll love the ground and is in good form."

[Bigkegman]

i talked myself out of backing Royal Wedding even although the RP said it had a decent chance and would have been laid out to run a big race

[beamer]

I never even looked at the race but the price was amazing. I remember SS news saying it would be much shorter than the current 5/2.

beamer