Catch those 2yo's

[jtw1]

For a lot of punters trying to find a potential winner in a group of unraced 2 yo's is akin to finding a needle in a haystack .

However i believe that 70 - 80% of runners in these races can be discounted on a number of counts .
The first is probably the most obvious and thats how well the trainer is a getting these types of horses to win First Time Out season after season and in particular if they have early season 2 yo winners .

Also , with regard to the stable , is the jockey booking of any significance ?

Next is how may the sires influence affect their off-spring and by that i mean is he/she by a sire who won at sprint distance or over middle distances , did they show a preference for extremes of going etc.

I'll try and pinpoint runners which i think have these conditions to suit in the coming weeks and we'll see how things pan out .

I'll be comparing the strike-rate and Prize money won last season of each sire who has a runners in each race as well as their optimum winning distance .

The Racing Post website [ bloodstock ] and British 2yo Racing website is where i'll be gathering the relevant info from .

Leicester 2.20 2yo Median Auction Stakes over 5f - G/F forecast
----------------------------------------------------------------------

1 - DOUGIE BOY - Trained by Bill Turner and a stable well known for early season winners but his 2 yo record in march/april since 2007 has only been 4 wins from 54 runners .
His FTO % is only 4.23 over the past 10 seasons .
Sire was a winner mainly over 7f

2- JACK WHO'S HE - Trained by David Evans who has had 17 wins from 86 runners in mar/apr and indeed he had a 2yo winner on the AW at Kempton last week .
FTO % = 7.2 over 10 seasons [ a poor 3% last year lowered the average ]
Sire was G1 winner at 5/6f.
N Callan has a 21% strike rate for the yard

3- ZEEMAN - Tained by N Vaughn who has yet to have a 2yo winner on turf , albeit from only 19 runners over 4 seasons.
Sire won from 5-7f

4- COPPER FALLS - Trained by B Powell who has had only a single 2yo victory on turf since 2007 from 82 runners.
Same sire as DOUGIE BOY .

5- Dawn LIGHTNING - Trained by A McCabe who had no FTO winners in 2006/7/8 , has FTO wins in '09 + '10 but in mar/apr has had only 1 win from 22 runners in 10 seasons.
Sire was a G1 sprinter.

6- DEAM WHISPERER - Trained by D F Davis who had not had a 2yo winner on turf since '07 from 61 runners.
Sprinter sired.

7- WAYBULOO - Trained by G Kelleway who has had 3 wins from only 8 runners in mar/apr since 2008 .
She had no FTO winners in 2008/9 but had 2 FTO in 2010.
Sire was G1 / 2 winning sprinter
P Hanaghan has a 20% strike rate for the yard , although no 2yo wins

Summary - JACK WHO'S HE may well start as favourite i'm afraid but the fact that the stable is well used to having them fit to win 1st time [ 2 yo winner last week ] , is sprint-bred and , noticably , N Callan usually rides for G KELLEWAY for who he won at Kempton last week but has apparently chosen to ride for Evans here.
WAYBULOO is the danger .

*note - this takes a fair bit of time so i'll be looking to minimise the process

[ONEDUNME]

Great write up as ever mate. I'll take the 2/1 + on offer at Betfair tonight. I know it may be bigger tomorrow but I'm happy with the price and I'll take the risk.

[jtw1]

Also will be noting the actual age with respect to the other runners and using this -

TOP SIRES OF TWO-YEAR-OLDS - 2010

STALLION WINNERS-RUNNERS WINS RUNS WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE
Iffraaj 30-60 50% 42 251 £510,534 £621,563
Invincible Spirit 30-70 43% 46 255 £805,365 £915,587
Danehill Dancer 23-55 42% 31 205 £370,551 £557,366
Dubawi 22-45 49% 29 159 £231,429 £329,149
Holy Roman Emperor 21-51 41% 31 232 £200,553 £321,584
Exceed And Excel 21-53 40% 34 213 £190,015 £386,398
Acclamation 20-55 36% 28 231 £144,406 £221,584
Oasis Dream 19-48 40% 25 155 £275,169 £529,460
Shamardal 17-44 39% 21 130 £343,631 £447,070
Galileo 17-55 31% 24 144 £613,824 £945,364
Elusive City 16-32 50% 22 157 £115,939 £198,123
Kodiac 16-42 38% 28 222 £110,050 £215,375
Kheleyf 16-49 33% 18 254 £85,544 £146,285
Verglas 15-36 42% 21 142 £131,138 £167,744
Dansili 14-47 30% 21 137 £423,297 £493,411
Johannesburg 13-20 65% 16 70 £103,493 £138,959
Street Cry 13-27 48% 17 87 £169,731 £225,375
Footstepsinthesand 13-30 43% 16 126 £138,318 £272,856
Avonbridge 13-39 33% 19 190 £191,732 £249,010
Compton Place 13-40 33% 16 169 £70,987 £214,728
Kyllachy 13-44 30% 23 206 £103,006 £179,292
Royal Applause 13-54 24% 17 209 £84,265 £146,815
Hurricane Run 12-37 32% 14 107 £60,889 £137,530
Noverre 12-37 32% 13 180 £58,922 £128,193
Diamond Green 12-43 28% 14 171 £109,044 £147,102
Sleeping Indian 12-45 27% 17 197 £45,059 £106,099
Oratorio 12-56 21% 17 203 £134,624 £180,454
Iceman 12-64 19% 13 264 £35,128 £72,585

[ONEDUNME]

But so will a lot of other people mate. I wonder if there's a way of factoring in the trainer's 2yo stats. For example, off the top of my head I seem to remember Mark Johnston having a good reputation with his two year olds. Maybe some trainers are better at preparing horses for their early races than others.

Any thoughts.

[Seen]

Excellent work, jtw1

Early indications on BF's market suggests WAYBULOO and DREAM WHISPERER are expected to be ready.

[beamer]

Good luck with this JTW.

I was expecting Seen to tip in with his angle of whether they are actually 2yo's or still 1yo.

I've got a couple of points, but I will keep my comments to the general thread, so this does not get clogged.

I don't totally agree with your view regarding the Callan jockey booking, as I see the Hannagan booking as a positive rather than a neg. The Kellaway/ Callan stat initially looks decent but a large chunk of those runs relate to 3-5 years ago. She does still use him with successs but less frequently and Hannagan probably has a better recent record. It's possible Callan's rides this year were soley on the basis Hannagan/Fenton were not available and he kept thee rides. I could be completely off the mark though.

Remember the draw has reversed, so high has the rail today.

The fact that Hannon is not running any horses at Windsor could possibly throw a spanner in the works with previous track stats.

The 1st few weeks are critical in the UK for the low profile trainers, as it is probably the best opportunity to get a poor 2yo in the winners enclosure, before the big guns come out.

Future entries for horses can be significant. The horses with a single entry possibly may be out for the education, but a horse with multiple entries could be a sign of desperation to get the win, or also confident of going on to win another event. Future entries in novice stakes races, rather than auction maidens in a sign of confidence.

Multiple entries today are:

Waybaloo: 3- all auction.
Copper Falls: 2 Dito.
Jack who's He: 3, but two of them are advanced sales entries.

I haven't really look into the sires for this race but I do think the draw could be significant, were the rail could be huge advantage.

I've gone for Waybaloo @ 4.8, with a saver on Dream Whisperer. Also put the pair into combp f/casts with Jack Who's He, although I do find it hard to gauge the Evans runners.

Good luck beamer

[beamer]

Great start JTW.

I think the oldest horse did win it.


Well done

beamer

[ONEDUNME]

top stuff chap.

finished up at double the price I took but that's not your fault.

[jtw1]

Thanks guys , always nice to start with a winner and the SP was a pleasant surprise
Watched the race on ATR replay and it couldn't have done it better , i doubt there was much strength in depth but , to me , it proves the point that certain trainers have their youngsters more forward than others and thats the key to the early weeks of the season.

Forgive me while i try to suss out the best and easiest way to put forward the selections .
The main criteria by a long way is how the stable performs by , A - record of wins/runs in April and , B - the record of First Time Out runners.
After that it'll be a variety of True Age, Sire's record , Jockey bookings etc to come to a final selection[s]

Musselburgh 2.20 Cl5 Maiden - 5f - G/S
--------------------------------------------

1- T D EASTERBY has had 5 FTO winners from 61 runners in March/April in the past 6 seasons. Only had 2 FTO 2yo wins in the past 2 seasons [Mar-Nov]


2- R FAHEY has had 7 FTO wins from 20 runners in March/April

3- K RYAN has managed 5 from 51 FTO winners in March/April

4- M JOHNSTON has had 2 from 26. Strike rate improves from May onward

5- B SMART has had 2 from 9 , has had 1 win from 4 runners in April over the past 4 seasons .

6- D BARRON has had 2 from 14 , but also has not had a FTO 2yo win in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

7- K DALGLEISH first season trainer

8- P MIDGELEY has had 1 from 32 and in 5 of the last 6 seasons has had NO 2yo FTO winner all season


From those figures i'd consider FAHEY , RYAN and SMART's runners only.

Of those 3 the RYAN and SMART runners were foaled on the 21st and 29th of April '09 meaning that both are still not officially 2 , while DEVLIN was foaled on 22nd Feb , a whole 2 months ahead of the other 2 .

The RYAN stable has an average record in 2yo events at Musselburgh , 4 wins from 35 for an 11% strike rate .
This is put in the shade by FAHEY - 8 from 25 [32%] and SMART 14 from 35 [40%]

DEVLIN's sire has a winning ave of 8.5f
HAMZA - is by AMADEUS WOLF who was a top sprinter [ first 2yo's this season]
PONTIUS PILATE's sire winning ave of 7.1f but is 5th in the top sire's list from last season and the majority of his winners have been over 5-6f

Summary - Pro's and Con's for all 3 and the first i would be wary of is HAMZA , this is his sire's first crop of 2yo's and the yards low [compared to the other 2] course record put slight doubt in my mind .
The 10% FTO stat is good but not great .

B SMART , [PONTIUS PILATE] , has a superb course record with his 2 yo's but very rarely has a runner in April , his runners mainly start to see the racecourse from May onwards .
Aligned to the fact that he was an late April foal this could be a big task .
His sire is 5th in the top sires of 2yo 2010.

Therefore i have to go with DEVLIN who , on breeding , may prefer further in time but the yards FTO % , 2yo course record and Month of birth makes him the selection tomorrow

[Seen]

DEVLIN would be my pick too - drawn on the rail and Fahey's record with FTO 2yo's at Muss before July since 2007 reads 12211 - the two losers were only beaten by horses who had already had a run.

[Seen]

DEVLIN only 3rd, but ran on again after being badly outpaced at halfway - will be interesting next time on a stiffer track.

[jtw1]

Happy to have found the 1st and 3rd from the final 3 i suggested last night , a pity i got them wrong but i think we'll win more than we'll lose
The Ryan runner looked the winner as soon as the stalls opened and i think i'm right in my assertion that DEVLIN will need further and todays experience was much needed .

Tomorrow's BROCKLESBY is an interesting race of which i've used the 'Trends' to try and find the winner , so here's last years post updated to include the 2010 result -

2.10 BROCKLESBY STAKES

12/13 returned at odds of 14/1 or UNDER [only 1 co-Fav]
10/13 were Colts.
11/13 were FEB / MARCH foals.
10/12 were sired by a horse which had an average winning distance [according to Racing Post ] of between 6.6f - 7.7 f [ last years winning sire's not quoted ]
None had average of over 8.9f.

Looking a bit closer into the sex of the winner and although Colts have won 10/13 , Fillies have 3 wins , Four 2nd's and eight 3rd places from 60 runners , nearly 30% of all runners.
A filly has been placed between 1st , 2nd and 3rd in 9/12 runnings.
So it would be foolish to discount their chance.
Last year there were 3 Fillies who ran , 2 were priced 66/1 and 33/1 respectively and duly finished out with the washing but the other finished 2nd from a relatively poor draw [stall 2]


Wm TURNER'S runners in this are always worth considering having had a runner in every race since '98 -
7th, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 1st, unp, 3rd, 5th, 1st, unp, 1st , 6th and 2nd is a decent record for a relatively unfashionable stable imo.


So as you can read i have had the basic's of this 2yo thread for a couple of season's , even if only for one race out of the year

Lets see the trainers with the required FTO stats -

1- D EVANS needs no introduction after his win with JACK WHO ME started us off with a winner and don't forget he had a 2yo win on the AW last week.

2- JS MOORE - Only 2 from 50 runners in 9 seasons and has had NO FTO winner in 6 of those season's

3- W TURNER - Altough not as prolific as even i thought with his FTO runners , as you can see above this race is a particular favourite of his so his runner must be included in the final process

4- K RYAN - trained HAMZA to win earlier today and again has to be considered

5- N QUINLAN - 1st season trainer so benefit of doubt given

6- J RYAN - 0 wins from 6 runners in 5 season's and has only had one season where he managed to get a FTO winner

7- R FAHEY still has a great FTO strike rate with his 2yo's despite todays loss

8- A McCABE - has had no FTO winners in 2006/7/8 , has FTO wins in '09 + '10 but in mar/apr has had only 1 win from 23 runners in 10 seasons.

9- M CHANNON - 17 FTO wins from 107 runners . Has been less proficient in general over the past 2 season's with his 2yo's FTO but they do seem to do even better at the 2nd time of asking

10- G OLDROYD - hard to judge properly as he has only had 4 FTO 2yo runners since starting in 2006 and one of those did win

11- D EVANS - see No 1

12- P GREEN - again a stable with very few 2yo runners over 4 season's , 1 FTO win from 22 in ALL months from 2007 - 2010

13- A BAILEY - up until 2007 [from 200] this was a yard who had had no FTO wins but in the last 3 season's they have had 4 FTO winners from only 9 runners in April

That removes 5 from the list of runners

ADRIANIAN is the 'baby' of the field as he will be 2 years and 1 day old tomorrow , the next youngest was born mid-March .
This is his sire's 1st batch of runners but was a G1 spinter .

JOEY HAYNES and BUBBLY BALLERINA sire's winning ave is 8.0f and REDAIR's is 7.9f , all 3 over the preferred but the cats amongst the pigeons as the last 2 named have already had a race in which they finished 2nd and 1st respectively at Kempton's AW track 7 days ago .

That reduces the field to 4 and from those Bill Turners HE'S SO COOL will strip fitter after finishing a well beaten 3rd to REDAIR and BUBBLY BALLERINA .
Despite the trainers record in this race his runner may find a couple of the remaining 3 a bit better on the day as , imo , he may want a furlong or two further .

Summary - The 3 i'm left to consider are Fahey's OUR BOY JACK who is bred to be a sprinter being by a 6f Listed winner .
Fahey has a record of 9 wins from 59 runners in 5 seasons with his 2yo's at Doncaster .
JIMMY THE LOLLIPOP is by the same sire who produced HAMZA [ won today ] and the stable is in good form with 3 winners and no 5 seconds from 15 runners in the past 14 days .
TRIGGERLO represents Channon who has a poor record with his 2yo's at Doncaster with only 1 win from 43 runs in 5 season's.
Sired by Piccolo who won at G1 and 2 level over the 5f , this one is the best bred for the distance .
This one still holds entries for a Maiden Auction and Novice events on Tues/Weds next week and considering the fact that Channons runners come on for their first run and it's not too fancied at this stage [20/1] makes me give it a swerve this time .

Given the good recent stable form and the way that HAMZA won at Musselburgh today i'd say that JIMMY THE LOLLIPOP [Drawn 3] is a decent bet at 8/1.
I'm at a loss as to whether the draw will play a part but just in case i'd advise a saver to cover the stake on OUR BOY JACK [13].
Fahey has had 3 2yo runners and while one was btn a sh-hd and the other [today] was 3rd i'd have been happier with a number 1 in the form of one of them .

Stake 7.5pts @ 8/1 - JIMMY THE LOLLIPOP
Stake 2.5pts @ 7/2 - OUR BOY JACK



Kempton 2.55 5f Maiden
------------------------

Only 5 runners and straight away i'll discount A McCabe and Wm Turners runners .
D Evans runs 2 and R Hannon has the remaining colt.

Of the Evans pair both UMPH and JAWKING are not yet 2 , born 16th April and 17th April and UMPH was well btn on his debut and probably needs further .

That leaves R HANNON who has had 24 FTO 2yo winners from 104 runners in March/April since 2002 .
The yard has a 13% strike rate with their 2yo's at Kempton and their last 3 runners have all won .

KYLLASIE's sire KYLLACHY is 21st on the 2010 top sires list with 13 winners from 44 runners.
A late March foal he still has over a 2 week advantage over the other 2 .

All in all i would say this is a pretty decent opening for Hannons runner and ,dare i say , as near a 'Banker' as there is ..............

[jtw1]

Well an interesting day shall we say !!
A couple of observations , firstly JIMMY THE LOLLIPOP should come on for the run and i could kick myself for not including Bill TURNERS winner today.
I'd highlighted his record in the thread but chose to ignore it
Although he doesn't have as many early winners as is generally thought this is HIS race with HE' SO COOL being his 4th winner from 11 runners since '98
Well done to the man

The run of OUR BOY JACK is now making me wonder if Fahey's 2yo's are as far forward as they were last season with all 2yo 4 runners being turned over , albeit one by a sh-hd ] this season .
Definately a factor to be considered until the results turn imo .

And now to the 'BANKER' , KHYLASSIE , well at least he was too short for me to invest in and it shows one of the pitfalls of backing these youngsters in the fact that they may well be treated 'leniently' when the chance of an 'easy' win has evaporated .
Chopped-up just as he made his move in the straight Jimmy Fortune quite rightly didn't give the horse a hard time and i'm very confidant the punters will get their money back next time with this one .

[jtw1]

Folkestone 2.20 5f
--------------------

1- Trainers first season , has had no winners from 10 runners [all aged] so far.
Fallon is an interesting booking.
Cockney Rebel's first crop of 2yo's , will be better over further i would imagine

2- A Haynes - 2 wins from 20 in March/April - 6 seasons - The horse's sire 2nd season at stud and all 5 winners won on Good or G/F , the 21 who ran on officially G/S to Heavy were all beaten

3- D Donovan - No FTO wins from 12 2YO runners in 2 seasons.
Sire's winning ave is 9.1f .

4- W G M Turner - Despite his traditional win in the Brocklesby , he still has had only 3 wins from 38 runners in Mar/Apr in 4 seasons and one of those was in the Brocklesby !!
According to the RP he has had only 4 2yo Maidens winners in the past 5 seasons from 105 runners
Sire's winning ave is 7.2f

5- M RIMMER - No wins from 8 2yo runs since starting up 2 seasons ago with only one 2yo winner from 21 runs since '08 and that was on the AW.
Sire's ave is 6.7f and was a high class sprinter.

6- JS MOORE - Only 2 from 51 runners in 9 seasons and has had NO FTO winner in 6 of those season's.
Had only one winner from 22 runners in April since 2008
Also by Cockney Rebel

Summary - No one trainer stands out tbh so i'll take a chance on one of the 2 runners to have already seen a racecourse , QUEEN OF THE HOP , finished 2nd on the AW just 5 days ago and the stable had the 3rd in the Brocklesby

[jtw1]

Windsor 2.40 5f
-------------------

1 - B MILLMAN - No FTO winners in the past 4 seasons
2 - A NEWCOMBE - No FTO winners in 7 season
3 - R HANNON - 24 FTO 2yo winners from 104 runners in March/April since 2002 .
4 - B HILLS - 11 2yo debut winners from 47 runs in April
5 - P COLE - 2 wins from 24 debutants in April
6 - R BECKETT -2 wins from 11 debutants in April
7 - J GALLAHER - No FTO wins since 2002
8 - D EVANS - 3 wins and a sh-hd 2nd already this season and this runner has already been out when 4th 9 days ago
9 - R BROTHERTON - No FTO wins since '99
10 and 11 - D EVANS - see above

Sires ave shows a negative for SILVERHEELS and SEVEN YEAR ITCH

CIARA BOO not yet 2 , born 14th April

Of the 4 leaft LORD OF THE SHADOWS will probably start quite a short odds fav due to the stable form at the course but i noticed that neither he nor MIDDLETON FLYER hold any future big race sales entries.

Could be worth trying SEA ODDESSY from the Hills yard who have a 21% strike rate with their 2yo's at Windsor .
Saver on TANGO SKY