Catch those 2yo's

[beamer]

WELL DONE JTW.

Cheeers beamer

[beamer]

Keep em coming JTW.

For a rare occasion I actuallly backed the Channon horse.

Excellent effort mate.

Cheers beamer

[ONEDUNME]

Fantastic stuff. Not only tipping the 11/1 winner but also naming the second as the danger.

Love it.

[jtw1]

Appreciate the comments guys and well done beamer


P Cole's do seem to be a bit more forward while i'll be wary of Hannon's FTO runners , running a bit below his usual high standard imo.

Friday - 1.35 - 5f Maiden
---------------------------

ALL making their racecourse debuts .

B MEEHAN only 1 FTO win from 32 runners in Mar/Apr in 8 seasons.

JW Hills has had only 2 FTO runners in April in 10 season's and in May has had 32 FTO runs but NO winners .

P CHAPPEL-HYAM - 1 win from 8 in 7 season's , had no 2yo runs in April in 4 of those season's .
Sired by a horse whose progeny appears to need a run and are definately better over 6 and esp 7f.

J CHAPPEL-HYAM has had 1 win from 1 run in April since starting up in 2006
She has had only 2 FTO 2yo winners from 41 runners in ALL of those season's

P COLE - 2 wins from 24 debutants in April , 1 win and a 2nd from 2 runner's this season .
Sired by SOVIET STAR and the comment in the RP Bloodstock stallion book is - best progeny record over 1m-1m2f

B Hills - 11 2yo debut winners from 47 runs in April , 1 unp run this season.
Sire has produced FTO winners and some sprinters .
Only just turned 2 , born 10th April .

R HANNON - 24 FTO 2yo winners from 104 runners in March/April since 2002 .
1 win from 6 this season , noteably that was a 2nd time out runner .
Sire won over 6f but progeny seem better over further , is 11th in table with 16 wins from 32 runners in 2010 .


M CHANNON - 17 FTO wins from 107 runners . Has been less proficient in general over the past 2 season's with his 2yo's FTO but they do seem to do even better at the 2nd time of asking.
2 wins from 6 runs this season.
Sire's first batch of 2yo's , he himself won over 6f twice and won his first 3 runs .

R HARRIS - Never had a FTO 2yo winner from 36 debutants over 6 seasons.

J NOSEDA - 2 wins from 5 FTO runners in April over 4 of the past 8 season's.
Sired by ROYAL APPLAUSE , Sire Comment on RP = top-class 2yo/sprinter, very good record with 2yos over 5-6f, many precocious and/or smart

M CHANNON - See above - Sire won over 5f at Group 2 grade

R HANNON - See above - by ROYAL APPLAUSE [see above]

W MUIR - 0 wins from 13 FTO in Mar/Apr in fact never had a FTO winner in May or June in 9 season's.

R CHARLTON - Only had one runner in April , but in May he has had 3 from 11 FTO winners .
Has had 1 2yo run this season which was btn a sh-hd
By KYLLACHY - G1 winner over 5f , pure sprinter .

B MILLMAN - No FTO winners in the past 4 seasons , 2 runs this season both beaten.

Summary - 5 runners to consider and first of all i'd bring it to your attention that M CHANNON has an abysmal record with his 2yo's at Newbury - 4 wins from 122 runs for a 4% strike rate !!
On top of that is the yards runners improvemnet for a run means i'm leaving out his 2 - PITT RIVERS and SIGNIFIER.

SIXX represents R HANNON and his 2yo's are running well FTO but seem to be needing their outings so far this season .

That leaves the 2 runners sired by ROYAL APPLAUSE -
J NOSEDA's REGAL ENTRANCE and R CHARLTON's TIOMAN LEGEND .
Both were foaled in mid FEB .

Frankie DETTORI rides REGAL ENTRANCE and he has a 29% win rate on Noseda's 2yo's [ 10/34 ] and the horse has a couple of Sales race entries while TIOMAN LEGEND has none which could be significant.

The very early odds on Betfair have REGAL ENTRANCE as a slight Fav with TIOMAN LEGEND around the 8/1 mark.

I have a slight preference for REGAL ENTRANCE over TIOMAN LEGEND but with both on either side of the stalls i think it's prudent to invest in both .

Stake 6pt/4pts - REGAL ENTRANCE / TIOMAN LEGEND respectively

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by jtw1

MARFORD MISSILE 1st @ 3/1

Was initially worried about the stable-form in general last season SEEN, but he managed a 2nd in a 2yo race on Thursday [ even though there were only 4 runners !!] which gave me a bit of confidence in the selection .
Hopefully a sign of better to come from DASCOMBE


Must admit that this is the kind of thing i'm looking for , as well as trainers who have their 2yo fit to win FTO , and thats a 1st or 2nd season sire who has a high[ish] of % of FTO winners to runners and especially over sprint distances .

MAJESTIC MISSILE looks like fitting the bill , with 10 wins from 84 two year old runs in his first season and , as i stated yesterday , 4 of the 6 individual winners managed to strike first time , one was 2nd then won and it took the other 2 outings before winning .

Try to keep an eye on his progeny making their racecourse appearance , esp with a trainer who knows how to win with them FTO.

Posted this last week after MARFORD MISSILE won and this is the first runner from MAJESTIC MISSILE since that race - LAUNCH ON LINE runs in the 4.10 at Ripon this afternoon .
Trained by Bill Turner , who as you may have noticed above , has had two 2yo winners this season both winning on their 2nd racecourse appearance .
This will be the selections 2nd run after an outing on the AW 17 days ago .

I've taken the 4.00 on offer from Bet365 .

[jtw1]

ALL 3 beaten


Tues - 2.10 Ponte - 5f
----------------------

M JOHNSTON has had 2 from 26 in recent seasons. Strike rate improves from May onward.
0 from 4 runs this season.
Sire was winner over 10-12f , progeny do better as 3yo's

R FAHEY has had 7 FTO wins from 20 runners in March/April , 3 wins from 11 runs inc one FTO today at Redcar .
Sired by KYLLACHY [13/44 2yo winners last season]

K RYAN has managed 5 from 51 FTO winners in March/April and had 1 win from 9 runs this season.
Sire usually gets winners at further .

A DUFFIELD has had 1 win from 35 FTO runs in Apr/May .

T D EASTERBY has had 5 FTO winners from 61 runners in March/April in the past 6 seasons.
Has had 2 wins from 6 runners this season , both FTO .
Has also had a 3rd and two 4ths in the past 14 days from 3 of those.
By LUCKY STORY whose off-spring come to hand early and can win over 5f

T DASCOMBE has had 3 from 23 since 2006 , no runners in one season.
Has had 1 FTO win and a 2nd time out win from 3 runners this season.
By EXCEED AND EXCEL [ 21 wins from 53 2yo runners in 2010 ]
Top class sprinter in Oz , won G1/2and 3's.

A BERRY has had 1 win from FTO runners in Mar/Apr since 2002

R FAHEY - See above , Sire can get early 5f winners.

M APPLEBY trained 0 FTO wins from 3 runs between 2004/5 , stopped training until 2010 and had 1 unp in that season

M HAMMOND had 1 wins from 27 FTO runners since 2002

G KELLEWAY - 3 wins from only 8 runners in mar/apr since 2008 .
She had no FTO winners in 2008/9 but had 2 FTO in 2010.
2 unp runners in 2011 , no turf wins this season.


Summary - PYMANS THEORY from Tom DASCOMBE's yard looks the one to be on here .
Sprint bred by the 6th most prolific sire of 2010 , holds an entry for the Super Sprint at Newbury in July [ as does Easterby's PUNCHIE ]

DANGER - PUNCHIE , from a stable whose 2yo's are running very well , just loses the selection on the assumption he may need a furlong or two further to be seen at his best ..

[jtw1]

PYMANS THEORY was 3rd on Monday and returned at 4/5f , i wouldn't advise anyone to take odds-on favs in these type of races !!

Thurs - 2.30 Folkestone 5f [Class 5]
------------------------------------

J BEST - 2 FTO winners from 40 runners in Mar/Apr/May since 2000.
First 2 yo runner this season.

P MCENTEE - FTO record of 2 from 52 in 10 seasons [all months] and 2nd time-outs fare only slightly better , 3 from 37 [all months in 10 seasons]
Fallon has ridden 10 times over the past 5 seasons fro the yard with 1 win.

D EVANS has had 6 wins from 34 runners this season , the last 3 seasons have seen his runners win 14 from 81 attempts on their 3rd run , a definate improvement on previous seasons.
Sprint-bred and only btn a hd LTO in a Cl4.

JW Hills has had only 2 FTO runners in April in 10 season's and in May has had 32 FTO runs but NO winners .
0 wins from 2 runs this season

M CHANNON -3 from 13 this season , 2 were FTO . Sire better over further

D EVANS - see above , but sire was best over 8-11f

R HANNON - 4 from 10 this season , 3 were FTO . Sprint-bred

B MILLMAN - No FTO winners in the past 4 seasons , 3 runs this season both beaten.

I WOOD - 0 FTO wins from 34 runners in Mar/Apr/May in the past 8 seasons


Got it down to CHOICE OF REMARK and KARUGA.
Despite the nine 2yo winners from 28 runners R HANNON has had at Folkestone , i'm swayed toward CHOICE OF REMARK who has a few positives to his name , those are race experience and he is a Colt .
Generally a bit stronger than the fillies at this stage of the season i believe.

[jtw1]

CHOICE OF REMARK - 3rd @ 7/1

Nott 6.00 5f Class 5
---------------------

The trainers who have a decent strike-rate with their early 2 yo's are -

K RYAN has managed 5 from 51 FTO winners in March/April , most improve for their 2nd outing .
1 winner and 3 places from 10 2yo runners this season.
1st season sire has had winners this season.

D EVANS has had 6 wins , 9 placed from 36 runners this season .
Slight improvement from 2nd time runnes .


EVANS has 3 in the race , i would be tempted to discount ROYAL PURSE as her sire was better over 7f and she was only born on May 18th.

Previous race experience is invaluable but i think ORTEA will need further .

I think his other runner has the better chance , ALJOSAN , is by COMPTON PLACE who produces some very fast 5f sprinters .
On the negative side she is a filly but has an able 7lb claimer on board today who has already ridden a couple of 2nd's for the stable [ one at 12/1 ]

K RYANS runner , JIMMY THE LOLLIPOP , will start as Favourite and justifyably so after his 5th in the Brocklesby.

Rather than take the short-odds on JIMMY THE LOLLIPOP i would prefer to take ALJOSAN @ 11/1 each-way with Wm Hill.

[ONEDUNME]

With you mate, with a saver bet on the fav

[jtw1]

ALJOSAN ran well enough but was unp behind her stable-mate ORTEA .

2.10 Yarm - 5f - It could be worth taking a chance with P COLE's INDIAN LIZZY .
None of the other 5 trainers are particulary reknowned for their 2yo winners and only McCABE has had a winner this season .

[jtw1]

On the MAJESTIC MISSILE front he has BATTLEOFTHEBOYNE in the the first at Tipperary on Thursday .
Had one run already and the trainer has had 1 2yo win from 3 runners.