Ponty Profit

[ChonkyWonk]

Morning all, I've had a look around and a decent 'value' bet I've found for the day seems to be Follow the Flag in the 15:10 at Pontefract. None of the horses running have strong claims for the win as the majority will be carrying career high weights with no solid form to suggest that this race is within their grasp. I really fancy Luc Jord but Luca Cumani's older horse's record at Pontefract doesn't fill me with enough confidence to take on the measly 2/1 offered . McCabe's record isn't exactly the strongest either but at least he has had more than one older winner aound here. Follow the flag enjoys the going and the distance will also not be a problem so the generally available 7/1 is tasty enough for me.

[beamer]

Luc Jordan is a short price and I understand you wanting to take it on, but I think there are enough factors to back him at the price.

The ponty stat is one I'm prepared to ignore, as if you take the search back a little further his strike rate improves. Whilst a positive stat does increase confidence, the negatives can be a little misleading, without looking at the individual runners.

The owner/trainer/ breeder relationship of Luc Jordan, indicates to me that connections obviously feel the horse can progress of it's current mark, as the current operation do offload quickly. There would have been an ideal chance to sell on last season when winning off 81.

His last two races were never really run to suit and I do think this race will pan out nicely in this small field with two likely pace runners. His last run behind Submariner may actually look better in the future weeks because the winner had little chance from it's draw at Ascot last week.

His final win last year over Brunton St, still reads well to me even if tyhe 2nds win nto was over further and soft ground, he still won by 10 lengths.

The ground is a slight concern, but "good in places" has to be taken on trust.

Not played yet as there is a chance of a drift. Mr Angry appealls as an IR trade, with drop in trip and likelyhood of forcing the pace.

Good luck

beamer

[ChonkyWonk]

Placed again... I should really learn to back each way.

[Seen]

Aye - you start backing them each-way and they finish 4th. So you start laying them and they win by half the fucking track!