Your Views?

[ChonkyWonk]

Hi guys, I know the spotlight today will be focused on the days racing at Ascot but there is a race at Ripon that may take your interest. The 4:00 has the tipped Charlie Cool running in a Class 3 handicap but at his current odds I would not be happy to back the sucker as he is unproven at this distance (he has won at shorter and longer but has trouble with 1m1f) Looking at the race there is another runner by the name of Oneofapear. He and Charlie Cool met in a race not too long ago and Oneofapear was giving Charlie Cool 4lb. Oneofapear won the race with Charlie Cool tailing off after running too fast too soon, today Charlie Cool is giving Oneofapear 1lb (not a huge weight) but I think Oneofapear is in with a shout of repeating his victory over Charlie. Also over the past two weeks Oneofapear's trainer and jockey have been coming on well so I think this will also help. The only danger I see is Rosbay but his recent form is a worry. Generally available odds of 9/1 for Oneofapear seem a bit inflated and feel should be taken on but what do you think?

[SAMOAN]

Firstly welcome to TDP, not a race I really looked before now, but at the prices I would have to agree with you. Not sure about the rest, but the Johnston runner may prove to better than he has previously shown.

[ONEDUNME]

Just wrote a whole post and lost it - be right back

[ONEDUNME]

I was writing to say - firstly hello and welcome to TDP.....


then.....

Charlie Cool appears to be a worthy favourite. The market has bottom weight Templetuohy Max as second fav and it certainly seems to be a horse on the up albeit stepping up in grade.

I would normally be joining you in a bet on CC as conventional wisdom says to back a horse that has done the business over one that looks as if it has the potential to do the business.

but....

CC's optimum distance seems to be the mile whereas TM's is further. I'm thinking that that factor (plus the weight advantage) might be the deciding factor over today's distance and although it's a pretty open handicap, I'd see the value with TM each way (currently 13/2 with Corals)

Good luck though

[ChonkyWonk]

Thank you for opinions guys. I took on board what you said but I still went for it, the 9/1 Will Hill offered me was too tempting. That'll teach me for being so greedy.

[Seen]

You weren't being greedy - you felt that his price was bigger than his actual chance and took what was, in your opinion, a value price. Stick to this and in the long run you will be in profit - if your opinion is good enough, of course