Seen at Ascot

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5.00 - the front 2 in the betting are both drawn quite well so hard to be confident about getting them beat, but I'm having a couple of small bets on bigger priced ones also drawn high. Theology won his maiden division in a time almost 2 seconds quicker than the other division (won by TOTAL COMMAND who is half his price and worse drawn today!), and Chink Of Light who should improve for the step up to 2m.


Back THEOLOGY (23.0 / 6.2) and CHINK OF LIGHT (25.0 / 5.1) win & place

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ffs

THEOLOGY beaten on the nod

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1st 3 home drawn 8-11-7

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5.35 - I'm expecting them to split into two (or three) groups here, wouldn't want to be up the middle but there looks little in it between the far and stands side. However, there doesn't appear to be much in the way of early pace on the stands side so maybe the far side will have the edge.
I could back several drawn high at nice odds but I'll stick with the one I fancy the most, Swift Gift. This horse has an excellent record when fresh (form when rested for 50 days or longer reads 3134112) and after a solid seasonal debut he flopped in Meydan but that came too quickly for him. Rested for 113 days he looks primed to go well and has been well backed (20.0 this morning, now 13.0). His 3 course starts have seen him finish 1st, 7th (hampered) and 11th (4th home on wrong side).


Back SWIFT GIFT (13.0 / 3.8) win/place

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Bit unlucky there....SWIFT GIFT came there looking dangerous on the far side but drifting badly out to the centre of the track....finished a close 6th, surely would have placed but for hanging badly.

The winner, TREADWELL, was one of the others I liked (see my place bets thread) but never mind.

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A good day in the end yesterday after a bad start, with win & place winners at 6.2, 5.3, 5.0, 3.65, and 2.82, although it could have been a whole lot better had I not hit the post on a few occasions (2nd @ 32.0, 2nd @ 23.0 and then having the 14/1 winner of the last on my shortlist but choosing to rely on one horse ew - which looked unlucky not to place).


2.30 - another tricky 2yo race to weigh up, although all of the juvenile races here so far have gone to fancied runners. I want to be against KING TORUS here as his win came in the slower division of a maiden. Hard to rule any of the other fancied ones out so it looks quite open. I've gone for Zaidan who was impressive at Doncaster and had them nicely strung out behind. At bigger prices I like Fanny May (won well from moderate draw at Lingfield) and Lexington Bay (a promising 3rd from wide draw at Chester) - backing both place only so I hope they don't win.


Back ZAIDAN (7.6) win
Back FANNY MAY (4.8) and LEXINGTON BAY (6.4) place

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A good start, ZAIDAN wins easily although a sting in the tale as it won at 7/1 so I took shorter - both place bets unpl.


3.05 - HARBINGER the red hot fav here at around 4/6, a clear chance to win but a couple of doubts about him mean I think he's worth taking on. Firstly he's drawn 3 and the round course has shown a definitely bias towards those drawn high against the rail. He may well be able to work his way near the rail, or his class might see him overcome the bias, but it's enough to put me off him. The other doubt is the fact that he disappointed on his sole start on ground faster than good - it might just be a coincidence but he may not act on it. The round course is riding a bit slower than the straight so it might not be a problem, but another nagging doubt to say he's worth opposing at the odds.
Tricky to be confident about which one to go for, have shortlisted three - Duncan (form when rested for 40 days or longer reads 221112, other form reads 67493), Redwood (hated Chester last time, a good 2nd in a Group 3 previously) and Wajir (Group 2 winner in France).


Back DUNCAN (12.0), REDWOOD (25.0) and WAJIR (13.0) win

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HARBINGER hacks up, DUNCAN ran well in 2nd but no chance with the winner.


3.50 - I love these cavalry charge sprints even though they're rock solid to fathom. They'll surely split in to 2 groups as yesterday, the going is said to be slightly faster over on the far side. Those drawn in the middle 3rd are really up against it.
My shortlist is

8.2 - FLEETING SPIRIT
9.0 - HAPPY ZERO
8.2 - SHOWCASING
34.0 - LORD SHANAKILL
44.0 - SAYIF

Of the front three I prefer Fleeting Spirit, best fresh (50+ days reads 111522, an excuse when 5th) and was a solid 2nd in this last year with a nice gap back to the 3rd. Well drawn in 21. Also backing the 2 big priced ones win & place, Lord Shankill ideally needs further but this stiff track will suit, didn't handle the soft ground last time after a good 3rd in Gp1 company. Sayif won his sole start here in Gp2 company and seemed to need the run last time, drawn in 6 so might be okay if there's no bias.

Back FLEETING SPIRIT (8.2) win
Back LORD SHANAKILL (34.0 / 9.4) and SAYIF (42.0 / 10.5) win & place


I've also done some multiples on this race and the 4.25...

7/1 - FLEETING SPIRIT
9/1 - GENKI
ew double

3.50
7/1 - FLEETING SPIRIT
8/1 - HAPPY ZERO
15/2 - SHOWCASING
33/1 - LORD SHANAKILL
40/1 - SAYIF

4.25
9/1 - GENKI
33/1 - BARNEY McGREW
25/1 - RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH
22/1 - EDGE CLOSER
28/1 - PROHIBIT
25 x doubles

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FLEETING SPIRIT won the far side group, but only 4th overall - so that's my ew double down too both place bets unpl

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4.25 - older horses struggle in this (4yo or 5yo - 6/93....6yo or above - 1/71) and again you want to be either high or low, middle runners have little chance. Genki ran a blinder from a bad draw at Newmarket last time (first 9 home drawn 5-8-4-25-7-10-6-9-11....the horses drawn 9 and 11 (8th and 9th) have both come out and won since) and he must go well on the far side.
Also backing 4 win & place at big odds....

Back GENKI (10.0) win
Back BARNEY McGREW (42.0 / 8.8), RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH (36.0 / 8.2), EDGE CLOSER (20.0 / 5.6) and PROHIBIT (42.0 / 8.6) win & place

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brilliant

it's hapened again...GENKI wins far side, no chance with stands side

ffs