The Imperfect System - Betting Forum - Betting Tips

**ONEDUNME** · Tweet this Post! #1 (**permalink**) 15-04-2010, 00:55

I don't want to get too excited but after a pretty long dismal spell on the old gee gees I finally seem to have discovered some of the old midas touch. I was going to make the title of this thread "flash in the pan" or "the chicken counting thread" but I thought I'd be even more realistic and go with this name.

If all goes to plan, I'll be winding up for a good dozen or so bets for the weekend but I'm going to ease into it slowly with just the one for tomorrow.

For measurement purposes, my starting bank is 500 points (for no other reason that it's the first number to pop up in my head). My maximum bet MAY be as much as 100 points but I really don't see that happening as the prices I'm working with at the moment are pretty chunky and don't require that kind of risk. The only exception would probably be a low grade non-handicap race when I sometimes take a short price as I don't see any danger to the favourite.

Anyway, enough shite, my first bet will be ....

320 Cheltenham
Easter Legend

Bet365 and Stan James are quoting prices of 6/1 and 7/1 tonight but I'll take the risk that it doesn't drift beyone 8/1 and take the 9.4 on offer with betfair (8/1 after commision)

10 pt win

also a 10 pt place bet at 2.68 to return 16pts if in the first 4.

20pts staked and 480 pts remaining.

A place would be nice for starters but not the end of the world if not as I'm feeling pretty confident about notching up some big priced wins/places in the forthcoming sprint races over the next 6 weeks or so.

FC Basher · Tweet this Post! #2 (**permalink**) 15-04-2010, 01:53

Good luck ODM,thought the "ONE IN TEN" did well for you didnt it?
Dont know how this Imperfect System works for picking selections,but I have I have some food for thought for yeah,might come in handy

J.Crowley is a jockey on the up,rode a group 1 winner in France last season,hes been retained by trainer R.Beckett this season,if you had backed all Becketts 2yo last season to level stakes, you would have made a whooping 126 pts gain.
M.Botti is another definate stable you should note (+10 to level stakes at the mo this season)
Dandy Nicholls will aim for the big h'caps,did have a group 1 winner last season in the Betfred Sprint Cup.

Punter · Tweet this Post! #3 (**permalink**) 15-04-2010, 08:57

Good Luck ODM, i've just got my head in the RP and SL now looking for a few.

I'm looking for some e.w potential today and as you've pointed this one out i'll look no further and give your horse the big kiss of death by joining you in a bet with it. Sorry.

**ONEDUNME** · Tweet this Post! #4 (**permalink**) 15-04-2010, 09:12

Much appreciated gents

I know about the Botti factor Bash but I'm a bit worried that everyone else also knows and that the prices may well reflect that lately. Nicholls is very much in my plans for the big spring handicaps where he usually has four or more contenders. You can be sure that the one that has his son on will be the shortest price and that the value will be in the others.

The Crowley angle is a new one on me so thanks a lot for that. I'll certainly take note of it.

This "system" isn't technically a system as such, it's a mixture of six or seven methods that I've picked up over the years (much of it based on market prices rather than form of the horses) which, individually, seem to pay off in the long run, plus a bit of form following regarding jocks and trainers.

I'm going to TRY to ignore following the flock as regards the draw. I'm pretty sure that most of us who back on the flat have been put off eventual winners by draw statistics at some time. Consequently, I might end up going for three horses in one big sprint handicap and have them drawn low, middle and high.

Anyway, I'm boring myself now so laters taters.

**ONEDUNME** · Tweet this Post! #5 (**permalink**) 15-04-2010, 09:15

When I say "ignore the draw" what I mean is to take into account that the prices reflect whatever the current thinking is on the draw bias for a particular race and therefore the price of a horse from a non-favourable draw may represent the value.

Going into more detail than I wanted to here, sorry

keemanan · Tweet this Post! #6 (**permalink**) 15-04-2010, 11:38

We dont need the details ODM , why bothr with the draw rules when you aint explained any other rules apart from the price hint.
Just give me the winners man!
Best of British to you sir

**ONEDUNME** · Tweet this Post! #7 (**permalink**) 15-04-2010, 20:26

No return from bet 1 (20pts lost)

Bet 2 is 740 at Kempton, Fromsong 10pt win at 7/2 (vcbet best odds guaranteed)

**ONEDUNME** · Tweet this Post! #8 (**permalink**) 15-04-2010, 22:46

Why the hell has this thread got over 150 views over 24 hours?

Nothing to see here people. Just me embarassing myself - and that's hardly a novelty is it now?

Anyway, Bet 3 (taking on board Bash's advice from earlier) I'm going for Jim Crowley in the 210 at Newbury tomorrow on board Oasis Dancer. It's not a race that really represents any value in its strictest sense but nothing grabs my attention and says that it's going to dominate the race so I feel I've got to have a go. It would be no surprise to see the Hills team carry off the spoils again but at 8/1 (paddy power - best odds guaranteed), I'm willing to throw five points at it.

The size of the field means I won't be playing each way so it's a straight win bet.

**ONEDUNME** · Tweet this Post! #9 (**permalink**) 15-04-2010, 23:04

Bet 4 240 Newbury. This race may be one to watch with a view to spotting something going the right way just in time for one of the big field sprints (that I keep going on about) in the near future.

The two I like but have discarded are Fullandby -with Keiran Fallon (which has had its share of decent priced returns) and Rowe Park. The former owes me nothing but is probably past its best nowadays, whilst the latter has plenty of ability and has the champion jockey on board.

My selection is Soraab 7/1 with stanjames (BOG) and, as I have time, I'll tell you why.

Figures for its first runs on turf last year
2nd (newbury) 1st, 4th

For 2008
1st 7th 1st

For 2007
2nd 2nd 1st 2nd

See where I'm going with this?

It had some runs on the all weather in 2007 but it obviously runs well fresh at this time of the year and can handle a variety of going. Tomorrow's jockey has won on it and I just don't see any downsided to giving it a go.

5pts ew.

**ONEDUNME** · Tweet this Post! #10 (**permalink**) 15-04-2010, 23:11

Bet 5 315 Newbury
9 runner race. Speculative punt. I like the chances of Tipperary Boutique for a shot at a place and at 16/1 (Paddy Power BOG). 2.5pts ew.