The Imperfect System

[ONEDUNME]

7 bets gone and so has 65 of the 500 point bank.

No panic

Punchestown 605 Reve De Sivola 10 pts 11/4 totesport

[ONEDUNME]

Bet 9 615 Chepstow Sir Ian 4/1 Ladbrokes 10 pts win

[ONEDUNME]

Bet 8 a winner = +27.5 points
Bet 9 a loser = -10 points

Bank 452.5

[ONEDUNME]

I'll be looking to take some early overnight prices for tomorrow and I quite like the peverse pleasure of seeing the price drift to double what I'm on at

Plus, I'm convinced that that Pricewise twat has access to my computer and will tip one or more of my selections and try to pass them off as his own.

[Punter]

Good call on bet 8 ODM. I might pop in and pinch one off you tomorrow and pass it off as my own too

[ONEDUNME]

[ONEDUNME]

Right, first up tomorrow is the 1 oclock at Sandown. I won't pretend that this selection has anything to do with any great form studying but I see a horse that hasn't ran since September racing against horses that have nearly all been out this season and I see that Fallon has been booked, and I see that it's the overnight favourite, and I take an interest.

Twighlight Star is 4/1 with bet365 (BOG) and it'll be carrying my ten point win bet. I'm not tempted to back it each way as it looks like it may well be one of those ones that either carries all before it or tails off like a damp squib.

On it's best form, Carlitos Spirit is a massive price at 33/1 but I can't be bothered to delve into it any further so TS will be my bet number 10

[ONEDUNME]

By the way, the race is a bit of a novelty "flat v jump jockeys" race but that doesn't put me off. If anything, it makes me even keaner as a flat jockey should be able to outdo a jump jockey on animals of like ability.

[ONEDUNME]

Bet 11

215 at Ripon, 2/1 fav The Only Boss doesn't impress me much (and neither does Jamie Spencer come to that) so I have to look to oppose it in an eight runner race that's a must for each way backers.

My vote goes to Cappercaillie - I would normally go for a 5pt each way bet but the 8/1 with Paddy Power looks a value price to me. The only proviso would be a non runner which would take the places down to only the two but fingers crossed. 10pt ew

[Seen]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

By the way, the race is a bit of a novelty "flat v jump jockeys" race but that doesn't put me off. If anything, it makes me even keaner as a flat jockey should be able to outdo a jump jockey on animals of like ability.

If anything, the reverse should logically be more true - jump jockeys are heavier (and therefore stronger) which means the horses ridden by the flat jocks have more 'dead weight' in their saddlecloths due to the higher weight allocation.

Admittedly though I don't have any stats to back this logic up, so let's just say that if this race is won by a jump jockey then I'm right - if a flat jockey wins then it's obviously a one-off aberration

On it's best form, Carlitos Spirit is a massive price at 33/1 but I can't be bothered to delve into it any further so TS will be my bet number 10

You do realise that Carlitos Spirit is going to dot up now, don't you?!

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by Seen

Admittedly though I don't have any stats to back this logic up, so let's just say that if this race is won by a jump jockey then I'm right - if a flat jockey wins then it's obviously a one-off aberration




!

It's a totally....well not totally but massively different discipline and they are different types of animal. That's why flat jocks don't usually win bumper races when they enter them which some might expect.

I'll be happy to hold my hands up if a jump jock wins it but I don't think they will. Tom Queally's horse is 20/1 compared to McCoy's 9/1 shot but I'd gladly take 2/1 that Queally will beat him home.

Anyways, thanks for popping in to my humble thread Seen.

I'm honoured

[Punter]

On it's best form, Carlitos Spirit is a massive price at 33/1 but I can't be bothered to delve into it any further so TS will be my bet number 10

You do realise that Carlitos Spirit is going to dot up now, don't you?!

Dont worry fellas.... i'll back it......it's in my e.w trebles from 9

So is Your Cappercaillie ODM

I'm off to the RP and SL to find a few more

[Seen]

Anyways, thanks for popping in to my humble thread Seen.

I'm honoured

It was in error - I thought it was one of Yorkie's damn fine R2R efforts

[stef]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

Bet 11

215 at Ripon, 2/1 fav The Only Boss doesn't impress me much (and neither does Jamie Spencer come to that) so I have to look to oppose it in an eight runner race that's a must for each way backers.

My vote goes to Cappercaillie - I would normally go for a 5pt each way bet but the 8/1 with Paddy Power looks a value price to me. The only proviso would be a non runner which would take the places down to only the two but fingers crossed. 10pt ew

I like the look of this filly, If you look at the draw she had in the classy Ascot race you'll see how good that run also was. Top-weight 3yos do very well too. If she's trained on she'll hammer this lot. £5 EW should slow her down a bit ...

[ONEDUNME]

I think we've well and truly handicapped her between us mate.

200 Sandown

Optimus Maximus 12/1 5pts ew stan james