February Bets

[beamer]

I'm going to put up this month's bets on one thread, so I can dig out any old notes. If anyone has any positive or negative comments, please feel free to get involved.

Wolver 4.20 Creevy 1 pt e/w @ 6/1

Into a seller for the 1st time, with blinkers also on for the 1st time. H/capper has consistently dropped this animal without any joy, but he's not a dog and probably would rate a bet without the headgear. Last run was against horses much stronger than this grade and I would be dissapointed if he fails to place at least.

The fav, Tiger Hawk's h/cap mark is based on the southwell surface and can be opposed by me.

Cheers beamer

[beamer]

Wolver 4.20 Creevy 1 pt e/w @ 6/1

4th

Came with what looked like a strong run with 2f to go but failed to go through with his effort. Not sure if it was a poor run or not, with the 3 horses in front unexposed or rated higher.

Cheers beamer

[beamer]

Tue 2nd Feb

1.30 Lady Pilot .5pt win @ 10.5
1.5 pt place @ 1.82

The fav looks an nailed on cert but the problem is I would have said Lady Pilot had been plotted up for this without the fav in the race. How they will treat the race now s a worry, but I'm not going to be put of especially on this surface and the fact that she's trading at double figs on the the win. Ideally would have preffered to take the 6's e/w and trade back the win, but that looks unlikely.

2.30 Kings Sabre 1 pt e/w @ 20/1

Even though a maiden after 20 runs, I do think he's overpriced. raised by the h/capper for his last run which may have been a touch too far and a prominent runner. Also has the beating of Zefferelli, who I can't figure out needs standard or slow.

3.30 Genle Guru 1 pt win @ 10.0
Calmdownmate Win @ 36.0

Calmdown is a horse thats obviously had problems and likely to need the run. However gone well fresh before and price is big enough to get involved.

Gentle Guru's last run reads well and there nmay be a little more to come now it's had experience of the track.

The fav is on a fair mark but I do think this will be run at a faster early pace than his maiden win.

Cheers beamer

[beamer]

South 4.30 Barlaman 1pt win @ 9.0

Desperateday sofar and next pick can have plenty of holes picked in it.

The opposition don't look a great bunch with the Hills and Johnson horses at the sales and looking oppsosable.

Wedding Dream has improved but this is much tougher than the last 2 encounters.

Paintball is hard to weigh up and may improve further.

Barlaman looks a reasonable price trying this surface for the 1st time. Ex Godolphin, it could be siginificant the take h/cap company when a much easier maiden option could have been taken. I dont think the trainer/owner tend to play about with h/cap marks and relatives have performed best over a trip. One sprint bred relative did win on the fibresand. Putting a lay back in place @ 2.4 if Catlin decides to dictate.

Cheers beamer

[beamer]

Wed 3rd

1.10 Ling. Titus Gent .5 pt win @ 6.0 & 1 pt place @ 2.02

Obe Gold, Peopleton and Equinity are all tied in together but OG win here was a very slow time.
Espy is an unknown on this track.

Titus best rcent run was over C&D and I'm hopeful the track will see a teturn.

beamer

[beamer]

Ling 4.00 Whodunnit 1 pt E/w @ 13.0/3.5 ( Lay back IR @ 2.9/1.33) 3rd LB matched on place bet only

I want to be with a prominent runner here and although zero is a prom runner I'm banking on Who to take a lead. Still may have needed run lto after a long lay off in a race that looked stronger than ZC's last run.

Lay back in place.

beamer

[beamer]

lING 4.35 Our Day Will Come E/W @ 16/1 (LB @ 4/1.4)

Unplaced. Tried to find a prom runner but there wasn't any. Winner Stanley Goodspeed had a chance having bombed at South, but was another hold up. Turned out it never mattered about the slow pace

beamer

[Seen]

Beamer

I don't know if you keep records of your bets at certain tracks, but if you do, how do you fare at Lingfield? I rarely bother there (apart from occasionally place-laying the field short) as the way the races are run are just ridiculous - front-runners will go off too fast yet stay on to win, other times the leader sets a slow pace yet drops away as the whole field swoops from the back.

Defies logic really, the bunch finishes make ratings impossible - 2 lengths often cover 10 horses, ridiculous.

[beamer]

I know exactly what you mean. It's probably a laying track but I'm finding I'm trying to be too clever predicting a race by race bias. Taking on the mid divs drawn on the rail has been working for me.

I do think the form holds up well in the class 2/3 level though.

Kem 5.30 Glamourous Spirit 1 pt win @ 7.0 & 2 pts place @ 2.24 ( LB @ 1.33/1.05)

I'm sticking with the Nickel Silver form and the fact that Catlin will force the pace again. Ryan horse looks an improver but GS put in a decent effort lto.

beamer

[beamer]

Kempton 7.00 Rightcar 1.5 pts win @ 11.0 & 2 pts place @ 3.0

Mentioned a few times about the baffling Grayson stable and the I.R betting will be worth a look. Apart from the massive trainer negative, there is also a problem with pace in the race, whick looks like none. I would go in bigger with identified pace but I'd like to think there will be a few trying to be a little more aggressive from the start. The probable front runners apart from Turf Time are both drawn poorly out wide.

As usual for the trainer, Rightcar fell out the stalls, switched all over the track and finished 4th behind behind todays fav, Turf Time. 6lb better off today. Hopefully Winston can gain a couple lengths with a fair start compared to last time and then keep on a straight course.

In all probability will finish 4th, but he must get a winner this century.

Cheers beamer

[beamer]

Kempton 7.00 Rightcar 1.5 pts win @ 11.0 & 2 pts place @ 3.0

Won

8.00 Kem Granakey 1 pt win @ 4.9/ 1.5pt place @ 2.24

Interesting race in that the front 3 are not really part of the establish gaff kempton runners. Stanley Rigby may win this with head in chest, but I'm hoping for trouble in running.

Granakey comes from a stable who can get them ready and the return to this trip looks worth following.

The lay off with Kings Canute is a concern for me.

Cheers beamer

[Seen]

Well done with RIGHTCAR, mate - you deserved that after your perseverance

no doubt the 7lb penalty he gets for winning will stop him winning another for 2 years or so

[beamer]

no doubt the 7lb penalty he gets for winning will stop him winning another for 2 years or so

The nutter in me thinks he can win again if there is pace in the race. It was a relatively slow time, but Winston did at least manage to track the pace. I'll be checking whats in that lay column 1st.

Bit peeved as the fastest of "the established bunch" drifts out in price and wins.

Feb 4th

Sth 4.00 Cheshire Rose 1 pt win & place

Bit of a punt this one but for a front runner she has had a series of terrible draws on turning tracks, which has brought her down to a mark of 48. Todays conditions suit, no worries re draw and Hannagan a decent booking. Entirely possible she's in terminal decline, but the price appealls nevertheless.

The Cuckoo is another who is worth a look. Layoff to overcome, but is on a decent mark for the future.

Cheers beamer

[beamer]

Sth 4.00 Cheshire Rose 1 pt win & place ( lay back IR @ 2.8/1.33)

Win matched at av 19.5/ place unmatched.

Based selectoin being around the 30.0 mark, which looked over ambitious now it's down to 14/1.

beamer

[beamer]

Sth 2.00 1 pt place lay @ 3.3 Lily Grove

This looks like one that will come 1st or last. Doubts about the surface and especially the trip, I can't see them being over busy fighting for 2nd unless she seriously has a chance of victory on the back of a lay off.

beamer