Horses To Follow

[beamer]

Wolver 4.50 Muktasb currently 15.0

Any concerns about pace and jockey are balanced by the decent price. After initial dissapointment of last run, it actually turns out to be ok, although the fav WA does have the beating of Muktasb, but also needs a fast pace.

Rather than a win aqnd place bet, I will probably dutch the two.

Cheers beamer

[beamer]

Wolver 4.50 Muktasb currently 15.0

3rd @ 16/1.(betfair SP 24.0).

In running betting told the story with it layed at high prices throughout.

beamer

[jockmc]

hi guys jock here from ireland

[FC Basher]

Mias boy, I thought run well in the Lincoln under topweight

[ONEDUNME]

Yeah it will win one of the big races this year I reckon. Aways seems to give its best and you know you're going to get a run for your cash if you're with it.

[ONEDUNME]

I don't know what race these fucking idiots on Racing UK have been watching but they are writing Slickback Jack off as a horse that has temprement issues following the 730 Southwell race.

Utter fucking bollocks. The horse was making ground impressively when the jockey found himself in a pocket with a wall of horses in front of him. A decent enough pace so it's difficult to blame the jock for getting himself in this position. With nowhere to go, the jock had no choice but to back off and spare the horse hassle for the sake of it.

Look for this one in its next two races and Ignore anthing you read about its commitment.

It will win again soon.

How these cunts get jobs on TV baffles me.

[Punter]

[FC Basher]

High Class Problem officially rated 50
backed this one today,tiny interest only.
Been off course since 08 were he won a 1m at Kempton aw rated 65,has won on the flat over 1m on firm ground and has other bits of form,has had two comback runs btn 41l on the aw off 9-11 and today beaten 32l off 8-5 on heavy ground over extended 1m 1f,todays ground and distance have been untried,Ill see were they go with this one,ground and distance wise,could steal a hcap with this horse,and will probabley go unnoticed in the market.

[beamer]

High Class Problem officially rated 50

That is definitely a " dark one" FC. My guess is it will go down to 45, so the next problem will be finding class 7 h/cap. I'm not sure how many are coming up.

That was desperate race yesterday, but Steady Gaze was backed indicating it was better than a 45 rated animal. He ran poorly but he could be worth forgiving on ground reasons if he's a reasonable price.

I think anything that was drawn high in the sprints, or came wide at Folkstoone is worth looking at next time out.

Cheers beamer

[ONEDUNME]

You probably know more about handicapping than I do Beamer. Do you really think he'll be dropped 5?

I only ask because,

a/If you two have seen something in the animal that suggests that it may do something, then why hasn't the handicapper?

and

b/ Yesterday's ground was heavy and the horse's only wins and places have been on standard (aw) and firm ground.

If I was the handicapper, I might well be thinking that the trainer may well have ran it in heavy ground with just the intention of lowering its mark with the firmer ground likely to be coming up soon.

Certainly be interesting to watch. Especially if the jockey booking turns out to be Eddie Ahern.

[beamer]

The h/capper has to assess the horse on it's actual performance, disregarding any ground/ trip/ draw issues. That's the theory anyway. BHB h/cappers are fully aware that the Prescott/Dunlop, etc horses running over 5/6f need much further, but can only rate them on what they achieve.

That's why Love You Louis's win really pissed me off. Won on soft in 2008, followed by another decent run on soft and rated 85. 17 runs later with 1 win on the A/w, not one single run on soft, until yesterday off a mark 20lb lower than last run on soft.

Hardly surprising the early 12/1(R4) vanished down to 5/2.

He may only drop High Class Problem 3lb, but 5lb would be reasonable IMO, based on the recent evidence, especially when you consider his mark at the end of 2008 looks too high. Illicit, who finished in front of HCP, was dropped 5lb for his last desperate run which is really on a par with HCP's recent runs.

As I mentioned before, even though the calander is littered with class 6 races, getting into a particular races off the right mark can be a problem.

Cheers beamer

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by beamer

The h/capper has to assess the horse on it's actual performance, disregarding any ground/ trip/ draw issues. That's the theory anyway.

Yes it is the theory. It's also the theory...no, in fact, the rules that all horses must be ridden out to acheive their best placing but it doesn't happen in the real world and having listened to a couple of handicappers in the past, I'm very sure that the thing that they are most wary of is being made to look a fool by dropping horses by too much. They are quick to raise them and slow to drop them, so I reckong 5 is too much but, as I say, I dont know that much about it.

[beamer]

I think it is difficult to assess 2yo/ lightly raced 3yo's, but in the case of your horse, an exposed 7yo, who's best recent winning mark was off 52, over 2 years ago, he's unlikely to embarrass the h/capper.

Just had a quick look at the lowest rated flat horses and there are a few who have been allotted a mark of 10, on the basis of just three runs.

I'm clueless what the single biggest drop is, but Ron The Don has gone 58-38-15 on it's turf ratings.

Cheers beamer

[ONEDUNME]

If i'm reading the RacingPost site correctly, High Class Problem has only been dropped 2lbs.

[FC Basher]

Just looking at High Class Problems form again,won at Brighton 1m firm ground rated 65 back in 2006,only other win came on the a/w Kempton 1m rated 52 in 2008.
He is now a 7yr and not sure what ability he retains of what little he had.Think your right ODM the Racing post stats an O/R OF 48 as the latest published.

Im having second thoughts on this one,should connections try and race at a higher grade were he'll be getting plenty of weight all round,but I doubt he'll be good enough to win.The only hope is if he goes unnoticed in a low grade hcap and goes in a a big price,but I dont think thats going to happen,especially if the handicapper continues to chop hes weight.