ODMs Value bets

[ONEDUNME]

90% of the time you can look at a race card and see that, regardless of how strongly you fancy your horse to win it, from a value point of view you must be mad as a hatter to be putting your hard earned cash on.

I'm not going to go into the usual babble of working out the percentage of your horse's chance of winning in comparison to the odds that you can actually get. Instead, my angle is to look purely at the odds in a race where the favourite is not heavily, heavily fancied (as indicated by the odds) and therefore has a good chance of being beaten by something higher up in the odds list.

I haven't worded that very well

What I'm trying to say is that I can sometimes look at a list of odds in a race and see instantly that there is value to be had by backing one of the "middle order" horses in that race (and I'm hoping that many of you will know what Im trying to say). Typically, it will be a handicap race in which the fav is over 3/1 and which has between 8 an d 12 runners in it.

Now I'm bit suggesting that this is an ingenious theory which guarantees a profit. Picking out a race that the fav can get beaten in is not exactly Einstein level and as I'm not using this thread to lay (although it could be done that way) I still need to identify which one of the other beasts will actually win, to make it pay.

I'm struggling to put into words what is a ten second process in my mind so I'll go straight into the real thing and hope that all becomes clear. It will be a live run with real money so here we go...

Stand by for race 1

[ONEDUNME]

The 1230 at Sandownr is not exactly what I mean but I'll use it as a demonstration of what I mean, with small stakes.

There are 11 runners and the fav is 5/2 and 7/2 according to oddschecker.

I've already said that I'm not interesting in the favs for the purpose of this thread and there are two horses at 20/1 or over which I'm going to also rule out, which leaves me with 8 to choose from.

I'm intending to back each way, giving me the safety net of money back if my horse ends up being placed. At this stage I would therefore rule out anything below 5/1 which doesn't apply in this case as the second fav ranges from 4/1 to 5/1 on oddschecker.

I have no strong feelings about the race to enable me to make a selection so I've looked at oddschecker and it shows that there are four horses which are shortening in price with most bookies, so I'll narrow my selections down to these four which are available at 10s, 12s, 14s and 16s.

I plump for a horse called Psi at 10/1 with sportingbet (best odds guaranteed) for 2pts each way.

By thy way, this is a conditional jockeys race so can I take this opportunity to recommend R McLERNON to you all. He's a cracking young jock who's been riding for Jonjo O'Neil, well, mostly for him although he keeps turning up on JP McManus' horses. Keep and eye on him as he's going to be a live one. He rides the fav in this race Blue Express so I wish him all the best in every race except this one

[ONEDUNME]

Just for the record, the other horses I could have gone for are

Aces or Better 12/1
Petroupetrov 14/1
Fixed Interest 16/1

[ONEDUNME]

145 Wincanton - Again not ideal. Maybe I've picked a bad day to start posting this theory. When I get a hot one I'll bump the stakes up but I'll have a couple of points on Gaspara each way at 15/2 --damn, just gone to 7/1 now bet365 bog.

10 runner handicap hurdle. Fav ranges from 4/1 to 11/2. The rest is pretty wide open which is why this race doesn't perfectly fit my theory but the main horse being supported in this race is Gaspara. I seem to remember that this horse came to prominence a few years ago when it strolled a big race carrying no weight. I seem to recall that it won a big bonus by winning two races that the sponsors were offering big prize money for any horse doing the double and It then went on to run at the Cheltenham festival. Forgive me if I have this wrong as it's off the top of my head.

It hasn't won for over two years but the market suggests that somebody fancies it to get back to winning ways today.

Again for the record (and in case Gaspara ends up being a non runner) my next bests are.....

Caoba 13/2
and
Dansimar 10/1

[ONEDUNME]

225 kelso

9 runner handicap chase. Chases are good as even the best horses can fall sometimes which increases the chances of my selections winning or placing.

The two front runners are between 7/2 and 9/2 and the outsider of the lot is 20/1+ which leaves me with six to choose from.

The next two in the betting Keelahan and Palomar are arount the 5/1 mark but I'm moving up the odds and looking for better than that which leaves me four to choose from

Calatagan and Oumeyade- best price 9/1
Toms Toybox 14/1
Albanov 16/1

I wouldn't rule any of them out because of the ground so it's a bit of a head scratching job. Toms Toybox and Albanov have both been pulled up last time out 24 days ago but that was on good to firm ground at Wetherby which is a stiff track at the best of times so it has its excuses but I'll pass over it this time.

Albanov hasn't ran for 629 days and whilst I wouldn't rule a horse out automatically because of that, it does create another element of doubt and I'll let that one go to, which leaves me with

Oumeyade 9/1 Corals 3pts ew

Has a claimer on it riding it for the first time but taking 5lb off it so I'll give it a go

[ONEDUNME]

Forgot to say Calatagan 2nd choice if a NR.

14PTs staked so far

[ONEDUNME]

300 Kelso, and the first race that fits my pictur perfectly which, as I said, doesn't guarantee a winner but I'm pretty confident that I can make a profit on my "five star" races such as this.

9 runner handicap chase (which, as I said, is a definite plus).
Fav is 3/1 to 10/3
Two others are best priced 4/1 so they are ruled out and I'm left with 6
Two are over 20/1 which leaves me with 4 which are

Storm Prospect 7/1
Fred Bojangles 15/2
Norminster 12/1
Regents Secret 14/1


Straight away Fred Bojangles jumps out at me. last three races reads 224 and ran 28 days ago so fitness should not be an issue.

5pts ew 15/2 sportingbet (BOG)

All that remains is to pick a reserve which will beeeeeeeee

Norminster

[ONEDUNME]

* * * * *

320 Sandown. Another "five star" race (see the stars at the top there? Snazzy eh?

Ten runner handicap chase.
Two at the front of the market 4/1 to 9/2
Three at 20/1 or over, takes me down to 5 to choose from

Any Currency 11/2
River Indus 13/2
Rustarix 15/2
Runshan 10/1


I'm going for the shortest of those Any Currency for 4pts ew (15/2 skybet)and a bigger one at 1pt ew Runshan 10/1 skybet.

[kompressaur]

cheers ODM. I'll give them a wee try in e/w doubles

1 Any Currency @ 5/1
2 Fred Bojangals @ 6/1
3 Oumeyade @ 7/1
4 Gaspara @ 7/1

good luck

[ONEDUNME]

Result of race 1
Psi 2nd - beaten 3/4 of a length. 4pts staked 6pts returned, 2pt profit

[conanthelibrarian]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

Result of race 1
Psi 2nd - beaten 3/4 of a length. 4pts staked 6pts returned, 2pt profit

Top Stuff ONEDUNME. Following you today. Good luck.

[ONEDUNME]

Race 1, placed 2pts profit
Race 2 Unplaced 4pts loss
Race 3 Unplaced 6pts loss
Race 4 Unplaced 10pts loss
Race 5 Won 26.4 pts profit
Race 5 Placed 1pt profit

+ 9.4 points profit on the day

Taking the "five star" selections on their own, they made a proftit of 17.4 points

[ONEDUNME]

* * * * *

Race 6 - five star race

2.45 Ffos Las

2 mile handicap chase.
The first three in the betting are around 4/1
One is over 20/1

Ruling those four out narrows my choice down to four.

Storm of applause 13/2
Bermuda Pointe 7/1
Norborne Bandit 10/1
Oneway 16/1to20/1

Two of these are currently shortening in the market....

Selections
Bermuda Pointe 4pts ew
Oneway 1pt ew

[ONEDUNME]

* * * * *

Ffos Las 3.50

2 mile 5 novice handicap chase with 8 runners - Perfect

Front 3 in the betting are between 3/1 and 9/2
1 is 25/1 and above

Leaving the following four

Legally Fast 7/1
Pallasmore 10/1
Bushwacker 11/1
Pacific Ocean 12/1

Of those, Pallasmore and Bushwacker seem to be the ones shortening in price so I'll split it and go for 2pts ew on each.

[ONEDUNME]

Race 6 Bermuda Pointe placed at 15/2. 10pts staked, 10 pts returned