ODMs Value bets

[ONEDUNME]

Well what a race. Pallasmore falling at the last when in with every chance of winning. That's the way the game goes.

[conanthelibrarian]

Was this a one off ODM, or are you going to continue with it? Really enjoyed following your tips.

[ONEDUNME]

Thanks for that Conan. I appreciate the comment.

I did mean to carry on last Saturday and Sunday to be honest but time got the better of me. For what it's worth, I had no winners on Saturday but did have a couple of placed horses which made me a small profit on the day. As it happened, there were no selections for Sunday anyway.

It's something that only really works when you know the prices and non runners which means that I can only do it at the weekends or when I'm not at work.

I'm still confident that there is money to be made from it. I'll make a note to put some time aside on Saturday

[conanthelibrarian]

Nice one ODM. I know fcuk all about horses and some would say the same about football.
But I do enjoy the odd bet on the horses and watching the race.

[ONEDUNME]

1250 Lingfield

12 runner 6f handicap. Jumping fields are my favourite but close behind are 5 and 6 furlong sprints for the simple reason that no matter how good a horse is it only has to make one mistake (slow to jump out for example) and there's not much time to make amends for it.

There's an old saying that you can give away weight but you can't afford to give away ground and one error can cost at the minimum distances.

Having said that, this race is not good enough to be a "five star" effort.

First two in the market are 3/1 and 7/2
Three are 20/1 and above, leaving a massive 7 to choose from

The two moving in the market at this particular moment in time are
Grand Palace 9/1 bet365
Romantic Queen 14/1 bet365

I'll go for 2pts ew on the first one and 1pt ew on the second. 3 places, 1/4 the odds

[ONEDUNME]

* * * * *

1250 Ascot
11 runner novice handicap over 3 miles.

Fav is 11/4
2 at 20/1 plus, leaving 8 to choose from

Victor Chandler are offering money back if your horse falls at Ascot and for that reason I'll be taking the slightly shorter price of 14/1 about


Senor Shane



2pts ew

[ONEDUNME]

Sod it, I'll add 5pts ew River Ripples in the same race at 8/1

[ONEDUNME]

Looked a two horse race between Knighton Combe and Senor Shane coming to the second last when they clashed in the air and my bugger came off worst. To quote the commentator "knocked the stuffing" out of my horse and it virtually stopped and didnt even get a place.

Good race to watch though and if any consolation it was probably my horse that caused the collision anyway

[ONEDUNME]

Not a big fan of National Hunt flat races by any means, either in a betting capacity or as a spectacle but the 145 seems to be quite an open one as they go with nine runners.

Two market leaders are 2/1 and 5/2 ish
Two are 20/1 plus with all bookies

I can get 20/1 on South America 1pt ew with bet365

looking for a decent race in which to raise the stakes a bit

[ONEDUNME]

* * * * *

10pts ew will probably be my maximum bet on this thread and this race comes close to being a perfect race to use it on but as it's still early days, I'll reign it in a little.

205 Ascot 9 runner handicap chase

first three in betting are 3/1 to 4/1
Two are 20/1 or over, leaving only four to choose from (I'm quoting the VC prices because of their faller, money back, offer.

Lord Henry 9/1 vcbet 8/1
Santas son 11/1 and 11/1
Oumeyade 12/1 11/1
Qrackers 14/1 12/1

I definitely fancy Lord Henry so 5pts 6pts ew on that one (vcbet)

Qrackers is an interesting one if only because it's gone from Paul Nichols stable to Venetia Willams and I seem to remember her having success with such an animal first time out last season. However, I'm passing it up for 1pt ew on Santa's son

[ONEDUNME]

* * * * *

210 Huntingdon

11 runner handicap hurdle with only one horse not available at 5/1 or over which makes it an open race.
2 at 20/1 or over leaves 8 to choose from.

I like second fav Akram but 5/1 is no price for a thread like this so that narrows it down to seven, two of which are not much bigger prices either.

A race like this is well worth a gamble for a big priced winner so I have five to choose from

Ovthenight ranges between 14 and 28 to one so some difference of opinion on that ones chances

Moment Present and Golden Alcheminst are best priced 7/1 and 12/1 but are both drifting at the moment

which leaves two at big prices. 5pts on each, each way

Strath Gallant 14/1 stan james
Ballymcduff 18/1 will hills

[ONEDUNME]

no time for a break down but 315 earcomesthedream 14/1 5 pts ew. other choice was solway bee but need to stick to one selection now I'm down

[ONEDUNME]

Not doing very well are we....

Towcester 1225

Choice of three

Rookery Lad 12/1
Devils River 16/1
Himbe 20/1

Going for Devils River 3pts ew

[ONEDUNME]

320 Towcester

One Cornetto 3pts ew 8/1

[ONEDUNME]

Aintree 1235

Struggling to decide between bottom weight Corlande with his claimer on board and the more experienced pilot Seamus Durak on Always Waining. Both are 14/1 and I just know that if I go for one of them the other one is going to romp home.

What to do what to do.

I think I'll go for 5pts ew on Always Waining based on the fact that it ran three weeks ago, whereas the other one hasnt ran for over 200 days. However, I will put a consolation bet of 2pts ew on the second one.