Monday 22nd

[Seen]

Not sure what punters have done to have to endure an afternoon diet of Lingfield and Wolves but I guess at least 4 of the Lingfield races are on the turf track.

2.15 - 5f 2yo maiden - class 5
One of the few Polytrack racetypes I like to look at. This 5f is probably the sharpest in the country due to the surface, the downhill run and sharp home turn and horses who need further just don't win round here. 2yo maidens at this trip are good betting mediums because many runners are bred for further and just don't have the pace to cope with the speed test.

Current odds - horse - sire stamina index

2.60 - MRS BOSS - 7.3
3.90 - BRAMBLEBERRY - 8.5
6.80 - GUESSWORK - 8.9
8.80 - THREE'S A CROWD - 7.6
17.0 - VIRGINIA HALL - 8.8
28.0 - MIND THE MONARCH - 6.4
90.0 - PRINCESS SHAMAL - 6.4
150.0 - FAIRYWATER GREY - ?


Starting with the Dascombe-trained newcomer BRAMBLEBERRY.....her trainer's 2yo's are easy to predict - if they are well backed they usually win, if the drift they lose. This one is clear 2nd fav but there has been just 1/5th of the amount traded than on fav MRS BOSS (9K compared to 45K) and is drifting, which is signifcant. Her breeding stongly suggests she needs at least 6f already so looks a poor price.

MRS BOSS has the best form in the race by some way but is starting to look exposed and has yet to clock a decent time on my figures. Respectable efforts in class 3 & 1 events before not getting home over 6f behind an Ascot Grp3 3rd, she looks sure to go well in a weak race. Deservedly fav but not one to bank on completely.

GUESSWORK has been described as tall and gangly, not looking a 5f type, so with her sires stamina index too high for this race this one can be discounted. Also she was withdrawn from a race on firm ground so this surface perhaps not ideal.

THREE'S A CROWD is bred to be sharp enough for this but worryingly lacked the pace the get competitive over 6f on her debut - which suggests she needs stepping up in trip not down. However that may have been down to greeness on her racecourse debut so with her trainer rarely having FTO winners she can be expected to improve. Shortlisted.

VIRGINIA HALL is from the Prescott stable and always to be feared but bred for further and finished last on debut. Clearly went too quickly that day and can go better with restraint, but has done nothing but drift all day and today is probably not the day.

MIND THE MONARCH didn't do a lot on her first 2 starts but at the same time didn't run badly (both races in class 4), especially her 2nd start at Sandown where the form is already starting to work out well (winner probably rated in 90's). Only small but neat and should be suited to this track. Seemed to run badly last time when last of 14 but Timeform report that she stumbled so that effort can be ignored. Looks decent value at current odds.

PRINCESS SHAMAL is a big price but is bred to be sharp and showed a modicum of promise last time. Has been a pain to get in the stalls both runs. She might improve again and go better than her price implies.

FAIRYWATER GREY looks to have little chance.


I backed MRS BOSS at 2.74 earlier and layed BRAMBLEBERRY at 3.85 - they are now trading at 2.5 and 4.1 respectively, so I've got that right. MRS BOSS looks sure to trade shorter and BRAMBLEBERRY at longer in-running so will 'keep bet' trade.

Have backed THREE'S A CROWD to return stakes and MIND THE MONARCH and PRINCESS SHAMAL win & place to bring home the bacon.

MRS BOSS is the likeliest winner but not unbeatable and a good back-to-lay trade.
BRAMBLEBERRY will need further and is a good lay-to back as I can see her getting outpaced either early or mid-race before staying on too late.
Can't have GUESSWORK and have place-layed this one at 1.85.
MIND THE MONARCH is the ew value of the race and should go well at a price - 28/1 at VC, 25/1 elsewhere.
PRINCESS SHAMAL a longshot but worth a small ew stake just in case.

[beamer]

Seen can you check your messages mate.


Good luck today

Cheers beamer

[beamer]

Time for the padded cell for me with this pick.

Trainer without a winner in 9 months 0/188 ( Can a trainer really be that bad) and the horse is probably better anywhere else than Lingfield, but I will be backing Stonacre Lad in the 3.15.

I'd expect him to drift much bigger than the current 15.

Trainers horses have been unbelievably bad, but SL actually ran with some promise over turf when isolated.

His last run over C&D was an impossible task running off level weights against better class rivals.

His form in class 3 A/W h/caps reads: 6,1,3.

Those wins did come when the trainer could train a winner, but the fact they have booked Queally, who was on board for the horses last win, makes me hopeful.

Only other one that's taken my money is Global Village in the 4.30.


Cheers beamer

[Seen]

ok Beamer, replied via PM


MRS BOSS being smashed as BRAMBLEBERRY drifts....big surprise if this 2nd fav wins now.

[Seen]

BRAMBLEBERRY wins ffs

poor ride on the fav I must say

[Seen]

That's the first 2yo newcomer Dascombe has had in 2 years which has won after drifting

might be one of those days

[beamer]

It was a crap ride mate. Placed layed Guesswork @ 1.86.

I think the Prescott horse ran better than they wanted.

Cheers beamer

[Seen]

I thought my ew bet ran with promise - MIND THE MONARCH - going well when hampered on the rail and given easy time, probs wouldn't have won though.

[ONEDUNME]

I've been watching the price of Cosmea in the 345 at Lingfield and it's just reached the price that makes it value for me (6/1 or 7.4 on betfair) so I'm on it for 10 points.

[Bigkegman]

whats the views for tonights racing ?

7.10 at windsor - i could be tempted with swinburns Mottys gift. Swinburn is a shrewd cookie and if the money is down then the info could be about. into 20's from 33's. wouldnt take a lot of dosh to knock it down especially as the fav is odds on.

[beamer]

Windsor 7.10 Thaliwarru 2 pts place/ 1 pt win @ 5.8/36

Would expect some kind of market support on this one and the owner also has horses with the trainer of Fire and Stone.

The liklihood it's being aimed at nurseries, but I thought he was given a more than render ride from a poor draw lto.

The fav looks well clear but the price makes no appeal.

Certainly worth watching in the market.

Cheers beamer

[Seen]

Ran well Beamer, 6th I think

another considerately handled ride

one for next time?

[beamer]

another considerately handled ride

one for next time?

Yep, as expected really. My guess is another quiet one then try and win a couple of h/caps, but you never really know witha gambling owner.

Came out the race slightly in front, trading some of the place money and a place back on Fire and Stone.

Cheers beamer