Ascot ~ Sat

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I love Ascot again, it's great

2.30
BIKINI BABE (12.0) looks worth a bet here, had no chance on the slow strip at Newcastle on debut (also lost front shoe) but was impressive at Sandown over this trip last time and should go well here.
PARTY DOCTOR (18.0) and BIG AUDIO (21.0) are 2 others I like at decent odds so smaller bets on those.
IZAAJ looks a solid place lay, he's a small sort who will struggle in this class - he won a poor race last time where the 2nd has been beaten in a class 6 race and the 3rd beaten in a class 5. I place-layed him early at 5.0 thinking that was short enough but he's now 4.2 I've layed him again at those odds as I'm sure he'll drift out once they see him in the paddock / on TV.

3.05
DOCTOR FREMANTLE looks way too short at 2.78 for this Gp2 - his biggest wins have been in Gp3 company, and at Chester to boot. He's often keen in his races which is probably why the sharp turns of Chester suit him, drawn on the outside on this galloping track will be dead against him. Lack of quality opposition prevents me from place-laying him so just a win lay.
As long as Dettori doesn't fuck up, CAMPANOLOGIST (3.4) has a great chance to make all. Drawn on the rail with mostly hold-ups in opposition, if Frankie can get the fractions right I can't see anything getting past him. Won in this class over CD last year from the front, beating the subsequent St Leger winner - this is his first run back over 10f. A rock-solid back-to-lay as I'm sure he'll either make all or trade very short in defeat.

4.25
Fuck knows how the track bias will ride today after watering and rainfall. Still favour the stands side although wouldn't bank on it. This is very much a younger horses race...

age - wins..places..unplaced...win %

4yo - 3......8......63......4.1%
5yo - 5......7......49......8.2%
6yo+ - 1......7......78......1.2%

My shortlist is...

JIMMY STYLES (6.4)
GENKI (12.0)
PROHIBIT (42.0)
VAN BOSSED (55.0)

PROHIBIT is especially interesting at a price - best form when fresh (2116) where the 2nd was his racecourse debut and the 6th was a good effort in Listed class.

[Bigkegman]

only bet so far is Jimmy Styles.

my dad must have been watching the morning line and he said Francombe tipped it and Cox hires his stables from Francombe.... or something like that

[beamer]

Looking at the 1st at Newmarket, possible there is fast strip of ground against the rail. Even though the winner came up that strip, the 3rd horse was the eyecatcher as soon as he swithced to that strip. Could be he's simply a stayer, but I will keeping a carefel eye on the next races.

Good luck

beamer

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Good start for me, BIG AUDIO wins at 22/1 (took 21.0 early, was 34.0 at the off ), PARTY DOCTOR also ran well 3rd 12/1....IJAAZ unpl

[Seen]

Originally Posted by beamer

Looking at the 1st at Newmarket, possible there is fast strip of ground against the rail. Even though the winner came up that strip, the 3rd horse was the eyecatcher as soon as he swithced to that strip. Could be he's simply a stayer, but I will keeping a carefel eye on the next races.

Good luck

beamer

I noticed that last night at Newmarket, Beamer - in one race they were drawn far side but 4 came right across to this side....I think they finished 1st 2nd 3rd and about 6th....a big effort considering the ground they gave away.

I'll be laying everything stuck wide.

[beamer]

Thought Dazzler was poor for a change.

Backed him & Baunagain, the the winner In running. Really wanted the 2nd to win.

beamer

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I always feared ARTISTIC would struggle to get through with his hold-up style

[Seen]

3.05
DOCTOR FREMANTLE looks way too short at 2.78 for this Gp2 - his biggest wins have been in Gp3 company, and at Chester to boot. He's often keen in his races which is probably why the sharp turns of Chester suit him, drawn on the outside on this galloping track will be dead against him. Lack of quality opposition prevents me from place-laying him so just a win lay.
As long as Dettori doesn't fuck up, CAMPANOLOGIST (3.4) has a great chance to make all. Drawn on the rail with mostly hold-ups in opposition, if Frankie can get the fractions right I can't see anything getting past him. Won in this class over CD last year from the front, beating the subsequent St Leger winner - this is his first run back over 10f. A rock-solid back-to-lay as I'm sure he'll either make all or trade very short in defeat.

That went almost to plan with CAMP caught close home - would have been a lot better had he traded shorter than 1.4 though. DOCTOR unpl.

[beamer]

The Ascot thread seems to have become the Mewmarket thread.

I've missed the price on the 3.50 but I have gone with Rowayton @ 5.0 and Saved on white Shift.

Draw and form the simple reasons, even with trip doubt.

beamer

[Seen]

winner crossed over from high draw to make all, Beamer - something we can't predict pre-race I guess

[Seen]

5.00
Stats suggest you want a 4 or 5yo drawn high with low weight

my short-list is

6.6 CRACKENTORP
11.0 YOUNG MICK
15.0 BOZ
15.0 HERON BAY
25.0 GHIMAAR

Backing them all, with the main bet on BOZ

[jtw1]

Fancy GHIMAAR myself SEEN .

I like the look of AMERIGO in the Queen Alexandra , this race usually goes to a fancied , Nemarket/Southern trained runner who has ran in one of the Cups [ Chester/Yorks ] and this one fits the bill nicely .

3/1 available

[ONEDUNME]

A few things I have on my mind...


Firstly, the photo finish between Baunagain and River Kirov. Channel 4 were saying that River Kirov was 6/4 to get the result of the photo. As their own shots show that, at worst, it had got a dead heat, I just wish I'd been near a computer to get on that bet.

Secondly, I told everyone who would listen (and some who wouldn't) to look at Gosden's horses yesterday as some of his horses had run well enough on Thursday and Friday to show that his poor run was coming to an end. The prices of his remaining runners shortened after Bronze Cannon went in. He has some runners today too.

Thirdly, how the fuck do you explain this from Prohibit's form from the Racing Post

Top-weight Prohibit showed a rather awkward head carriage. He lost his pitch at halfway but was in the process of running on when he ran out of room around a furlong out. With a current three-figure mark he may prove difficult to place. His rider reported that the gelding was unsuited by the ground.

The same ground as yesterday??? It didn't look unsuited when it ran 5th of 26. Finished at 14/1 from 33/1 in the morning - Gosden again.

[ONEDUNME]

My mistake, it's Tuesday Gosden has runners

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