Grand National Preview 2008

[MickeyPaul]

Yeah. I'm just gonna follow suit and do what Seen does.

Fantastic work, sir. Just... peachy! Haha.

[traeth]

great work , had the top two from your table , decided to add Point Barrow following reading your post .

thanks in advance

[Seen]

Hi guys

well I'm full of flu and feel like shit - in fact I feel worse that that - I've just sneezed 16 times in a row

McKELVEY
Positives - Ran a cracker last year when 2nd, probably would have won but for going lame on the run-in. Obviously proven under these conditions so we know he stays, jumps, handles the course and a huge field. Still only a 9yo, has ticks in all the right boxes.
Negatives - Has 10lbs more to carry than last year. No solid evidence he is over his injury, 2 quiet runs over hurdles when beaten a long way.
Probably all or nothing with this one - if over his injury will surely go mighty well, if not then will probably be pulled up.

NAUNTON BROOK
Positives - Also has ticks in all the right places, good jumper and being a front runner will avoid any trouble behind. Stays very well and has exprience of these fences.
Negatives - Sometimes sulks if not allowed his own way up front. Led past halfway in this last year but weakened and was pulled up - although 1st time blinkers may not have helped. May be best going right-handed.
Probably all or nothing with this one as well - if he can get to the front early and into a rhythm he could go well for a long way at massive odds.

SLIM PICKINGS
Positives - An excellent 3rd in this race last year so like McKelvey is proven under the conditions. Still only a 9yo so plenty of improvement in him. Ground will suit better than last time and with a clear round should be thereabouts.
Negatives - Has 9lbs more to carry than last year, and a weight of 11-3 which might just find him out.
Looks the best bet of the market leaders and this is the one I'd bank on to place at least - perhaps his weight will just do for him on the run-in but a solid chance nonetheless.

PHILSON RUN
Positives - No doubt at all about staying the trip, and ran a great race to be 4th in this last year when the ground was a shade too fast. Only carries 10-8 which could be vital on the run-in. Not many miles on the clock for a 12yo.
Negatives - Only raced twice since last years run. Can make mistakes although jumped well here last year. Was left behind by the front 3 last year on the run-in.
I can't believe the price on this one....if he jumps safely he'll surely be thereabouts. In much better form this year than he was in 2007 and the ground is better for him.

SIMON
Positives - Was in the process of running a great race when falling 6 out last year. Looks an out-an-out stayer so will defintely get the trip. Still only a 9yo and has run some good races in his preps this season.
Negatives - Has to lump round 11-7, 10lbs more than last year, and on softer going. Prone to blunders.
Can't have this one due to the weight he has been allocated, and might not get round. If he jumps ok he could easily get placed but I think his weight will tell at the business end against his lighter-weighted rivals.

BUTLER'S CABIN
Positives - Has won both times he's gone further than 3m2f. Handles big fields well. Might be best going left-handed which would excuse his poor runs this term (all going clockwise). Solid jumper.
Negatives - Carries 11-3 which might be a few pounds too many. Beaten miles on last 2 starts. No experience of these fences.
Certainly holds a chance but his price is a bit short for a horse with 11-3 who has never jumped round here.

KELAMI
Positives - Ticks in all the boxes except that he's French bred. Has experience of these fences.
Negatives - Has ran in this twice - falling at the first in 2004 and then pulled up last year. No reason to assume he's improved enough to win it this year. Makes regular blunders. Doubt about his staying ability, has placed a few times in races further than 3m but never really looked like winning.
A big price and worth a small saver but realistically he'll do well to complete the course, and if he does I don't think he'll stay well enough to even place.

CHELSEA HARBOUR
Positives - Stays well and will like the ground. Jumped left 2 runs back so course should suit.
Negatives - Might need it a lot softer - all 5 wins gained on soft or heavy. Often makes mistakes. May have a pound or two to much.
No surprise to see him go close, but might find the ground too lively and the fences too big.

POINT BARROW
Positives - Ticks in all the boxes except that he's wearing blinkers. Was co-fav for this last year (fell at 1st). Jumps well, stays well.
Negatives - Wears blinkers which is a big disadvantage in this race, especially for a horse who is often held up. Badly out of form in 7 starts this season, blinkers don't seem to have helped last 3 starts.
A shame he's wearing blinkers and so out of form as he looks the perfect type for this.

[Seen]

In order of preference...

PHILSON RUN
SLIM PICKINGS
McKELVEY
NAUNTON BROOK
CHELSEA HARBOUR
POINT BARROW
BUTLER'S CABIN
SIMON
KELAMI

[Yen_Sid]

Not at all a horse betting kinda gut, but, just spent a very pleasant half hour on this thread.

Excellent stuff Seen.

Oh, and good luck.

[ONEDUNME]

Congratulations to those who, like me, were on the winner

Not a massive profit if you'd backed several horses mind

[DAN DAN]

Broke even with Slim Pickings, was fun though. Cheers Seen.

[jbgb007uk]

thank god they all paid 5 places, my 16/1 on Bewleys doubled my money!! and an extra bit too!

Well done to all of you who were on the winner. I am appauled by the market though, overround was 148%, that is about 25% over the normal market!!