Grand National Preview 2008

[Beanie]

Fuckin hell, you'd pay good money for that sort of stuff elsewhere...bloody awesome sir

[Winrew]

Excellent stuff Seen
Just printing it out , i`ll have a decent gander at work in the morning..

[Seen]

Cheers. If we find the winner I want half your winnings

[ONEDUNME]

Off the top of my head - and you'll have to excuse me as I've had a drink.

Of the top 4 I like McElvey and Philson Run.

Of the second band, Simon is carrying too much weight and the price of McCoy's mount Butler's Cabin is never going to be value as it's only as low as it is because he's riding it. I know because I backed it at even shorter odds about a month ago and saw it drift like a barge before it was announced that he was on it.

Of the next five down, the pick of the bunch for me are Cloudy Lane (not surprising as it's likely to be favourite) and Comply or Die.

From the rest, I'm stick keen on L'ami.

[Beanie]

Seen, being a horse racing noob, a quick question. I assume that some variables - altho you are limited to -2 to +2 in the ratings you did - where there the -2 or +2 rating should realistically be a lot higher. Let's take the 'stay' variable for example(and I'm really looking at Contraband especially, but I guess also Fundamentalist) where if a horse doesn't stay it doesn't stay, no matter whether the right age or right experience.

On the basis of the final ratings Contraband would be a stonking e.w. punt at that price - but the fact it doesn't stay might say otherwise - I know you said make of it what you will so I guess I'm just assuming(and asking whether and which) some variables are more important than others.

Also, why peach?

[Seen]

Those are my ante-post bets on BF - I'm not happy that I've taken 11pts shorter on McKELVEY

Will have a further look at the others tomorrow, will be backing SLIM PICKINGS for sure with a couple of the 'green' group. I'd better do some fcs and tricasts too as I'll look a right numpty if I don't and the result is...

1st McKELVEY - 33/1
2nd NAUNTON BROOK - 80/1
3rd PHILSON RUN - 28/1
csf = £2,657
tricast = fucking loads

[Seen]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Seen, being a horse racing noob, a quick question. I assume that some variables - altho you are limited to -2 to +2 in the ratings you did - where there the -2 or +2 rating should realistically be a lot higher. Let's take the 'stay' variable for example(and I'm really looking at Contraband especially, but I guess also Fundamentalist) where if a horse doesn't stay it doesn't stay, no matter whether the right age or right experience.

On the basis of the final ratings Contraband would be a stonking e.w. punt at that price - but the fact it doesn't stay might say otherwise - I know you said make of it what you will so I guess I'm just assuming(and asking whether and which) some variables are more important than others.

Also, why peach?

Yeah, I could have used a wider range of ratings but wanted to keep it fairly simple. And of course, you can see from the charts whether a horse is going to stay or not (which is why I posted the full charts and not just the ratings) - I can see your point though.

POINT BARROW would have had a maximum rating of 17 where it not for the blinkers, and D'ARGENT would have been on 16. Personally if I see these 2 still in with a chance a few fences out I'll bet them in-running (price permitting) and they qualify on every other trend.

I like peach!

[Beanie]

Cheers Seen - yeah not a criticism at all - as you say its all posted there to be interpreted as we see fit - just looking for a bit of help with the interpretation really from a completely uneducated point of view.

[mrmuzeman]

Top read Seen, the graph looks so sweet. Looking at that and a few other sources will be able to get a few gooduns going hopefully.

McKelvey, Naunton Brook and Philson Run are the daddies arent they really, so theyll be the ones getting the brunt of my attention. Cant fault any of those at delightful prices.

Im gona leave Slim Pickings as its odds are a bit short and its weight is too high. Obviously ill be kicking myself if thats the one out of the top rated ones that wins but meh

Of the green rated ones Simons way too heavy, Butlers Cabin and Chelsea Harbour have too many question marks especially when you take into account their prices. Kelami looks as good as the top rated bar it being French but as its 75/1 or so I can overlook that so I like that one. Point Barrow I backed last year and the fcuker fell at the first fence but I know past winners have fallen in prior nationals so thats not a worry. The headgear isnt good though but as everything else is dandy and I have a history its a possible.

Bar that the only one I can see of interest is Baily Breeze. It looks good on everything bar I presume (due to the ?) being a bit of an unknown quantity over its staying power. But as its 140/1 I should be able to get good place odds should it lack in that department.

1. Mckelvey 35/1
2. Naunton Brook 150/1
3. Philson Run 33/1
4. Kelami 75/1
5. Point Barrow 30/1
6. Baily Breeze 140/1

[crowie]

Originally Posted by Seen

Those are my ante-post bets on BF - I'm not happy that I've taken 11pts shorter on McKELVEY

I am on it about 20/1 or something from about 5 or 6 weeks ago. Drifting like a fcking barge now.

Also on Point Barrow, who was fav last year and could have been anything but the first fence fall ruled out the chance to judge him. Willing to give him a 2nd chance as I am sure he has been aimed purely at this again and it doesn't make sense to go from 7/1 to 25/1+ in the course of a year when this has always been his target. Not too keen on the blinkers though.

Also on Slim Pickings which has halved in price since I backed it so happy with that.

And pulled Cloudy Lane in the big office sweep so happy with that and means I don't have to back it.


Other one I am looking at at the moment is Comply or Die who won the Eider under a big weight and didn't seem to be stopping when doing so. Blinkers/visor again though.

Suppose I better cover Naunton Brook as well, at that price it would be a kick in the stones if it won and I wasn't on.

[Seen]

Charts updated to replace non-runner OPERA MUNDI with ARDAGHEY....I've also added the racecard numbers alongside the horses to make things easier when betting.

[keemanan]

Grand stuff seen

[engineer]

All I could understand from that thread is that Seen loves peach!

Now serious, fantastic stuff, Seen
That Naunton Brook bet is standing out for me and I liked Mccelvey the most a couple of weeks ago, now I'll put a decent stake on him.

[slick]

Cheers Seen , this is becoming like Simon says' but fcuk it i'm on them all too.

Good luck lads.

[Bigkegman]

fantastic stuff people

I've got Hedgehunter and Kelami in the sweep and was interested in Chelsea Harbour and Slim Pickings.

I'm not backing mccoy just because of the mccoy factor and although they seem to be getting closer and closer for him to win - not for me