Trends

[jtw1]

Using the Trends section from the RACING+ FOOTBALL OUTLOOK stats to give me as little work as possible

2.35 DONCASTER -

positives
--------
8 out of 15 were 2nd/3rd favs
11 /15 finished in first 3 LTO
14/15 won in at least one of last 6 runs
5y-old + have won 9/15 from 89 runners [10%]

negatives
---------

only 2 favs in 15
only 1 winner over 16/1

Applying all these leaves us with GALEOTA - stats = 2nd LTO , 4th fav in betting at time of writing , won 2 of last 6 and is a 5y-old .

GALEOTA has a 3/3/1 placing over 6f from 12 runs
On todays ground has a 3/2/1 from 10 runs
Class-wise has a 3/2/2 placed record from 12 runs


3.10 DONC -

positives
--------

14/15 won at least 1 of last 6 runs
12/15 finished in first 3 LTO
11/15 finished in the first 4 in both of last 2 outings
14/15 either won or were beaten no more than 4l LTO

negatives
---------

only 1 winner priced 33/1 or over
Only 2 favs [inc jt] from 17 qualifiers.
Only 3 /15 were aged 5y-old+

Apply all these and we're left with NEW GUINEA - stats = won 3 of last 6 ,
1st LTO , won last 2 , odds = 14/1 and is a 4y-old.

DIST winner and ground no problems .


2.35 - WINCANTON

positives
--------

7 favs [inc jt ] from 15
7/15 won LTO
12/15 placed first 3 LTO
10/15 were from the bottom 4 in the weights
P NICHOLLS has won 4 from 17 runners

negatives
---------

2nd/3rd favs only won 1/15

Bit of a no-brainer here but the selection is ABRAGANTE -stats = Looking like starting fav , won LTO , 2nd bottom weight .

[jtw1]

GALEOTA 1ST @ 8/1 Hope at least one of you 9 viewers were on

[jtw1]

NEW GUINEA , unlucky in running IMO , solid wall of horses in front of him coming into the straight with not even a glimpse of daylight , came off the rails trying to find a gap and ran on to finish 5th.

[Winrew]

Want on it JT , but well done anyway , nice price as well...

[jtw1]

Cheers WINREW hope you were on this one !!

As the fat american rock'n'roll singer once said 2 out of 3 ain't bad

ABRAGANTE 1ST @ 15/8 F , was 2/1 before the off !!, a lot bigger than i thought it would be .
Pissed it to be honest

[traeth]

well done jwt

[jtw1]

Will try and keep this going into the winter . It will be weekend racing only and will post up on Friday evenings if poss.
Races dependent on whichever the RFO highlights.

[Khartoum]

Nice winners jtw1.
Notice your Abragante now pretty much joint fav for Paddy Power next Saturday, but looks like they'll need a few to drop out for a run. Pipe yard got a decent record in the race & think they always aim a few for this meeting.
Look forward to next weeks.

All the best, Khartoum.

[jtw1]

Evening all how are wyou all doing ??

3 races are highlighted in the RFO trends section , 2 are on SUNDAY and 1 for SAT .
SAT's race is the 3.40 at CHELTENHAM

positives
--------
11/15 finished in the first 3 LTO
5-7 y-olds have won 8/15 [25%]
10 y-olds won 3/15 [14.3%]
10/15 raced in the same class of class LTO
3rd / 4th favs have won 6 [ from 28 qualifiers]

negatives
---------

2nd favs have not won in 15 races
Only 2 winners were priced over 10/1

Only one horse aged 5-7 runs tomorrow but it looks like being 10/1 + so i'm looking at D'ARGENT who is one of 2 horses that finished 1-3 LTO .
D'ARGENT is priced as 4th fav in the RP f/cast , ran in this class LTO and 10 y-olds have a decent strike rate .

[jtw1]

D'ARGENT - UNP @ 9/2

2 AT CHELTENHAM TODAY -

1.10
-----

positives

13/15 were in the top 2 in the betting [ 7 outright favs ]
14/15 finished in the first 3 LTO.
11/ 15 all completed the course on all last 6 starts.
11/15 were aged 6 or 7 y-olds.
11/15 were fav LTO
P NICHOLS has had 4 wins fron only 10 runners.

negatives

only 1 winner with odds over 8/1 has been successful

Sticking strictly to the stats leaves us with N HENDERSONS PAPINI.
Currently 2nd fav on Betfair , 1st LTO , Completed all prev 5 starts , 6y-old,
and Odds-on Fav LTO .


2.55
----

positives

14/15 finished 1st or 2nd LTO .
15/15 all priced 9/2 or under LTO
13/15 aged 5 or 6 y-old
12/15 were either FAV or 2nd FAV LTO
9/15 won LTO
The first 3 in the betting have won 10/15

negatives

4 y-olds have only won once from 15.

Applying the first 4 stats leaves us with OSANA + LEAD ON and as both are around the 10.0 mark i suggest backing both.

[jtw1]

PAPINI - UNP

OSANA 2ND @ 8/1 , A valiant attempt to carry top-weight in appalling conditions
LEAD ON unp @ 4/1f , Subject of a massive gamble but never really threatened at any time.

[jtw1]

Unfortunatly one of the 2 races highlighted for SAT was the PETERBOROUGH CHASE at Huntingdon but this has cut up to a 3 horse race so i'm ignoring it .

ASCOT 1.50 - positives

14/15 in the top 3 in the betting [ 9 favs]
13/15 were 7/2 or under
Favs priced between EVENS - 15/8 have won 6 times from only 7 qualifiers
9/15 were 6 or 7y-olds [ 42 runners of that age - 21% sr ]
9y-olds + have won 3 from 10 runners [ 30%]


Basically it's a case of considering only those priced 7/2 or under which includes AFSOUN , HARDY EUSTACE and possibly DETROIT CITY [ only if he starts at 7/2 or under though [ around 7/2 - 4/1 ]
From those i nominate HARDY EUSTACE as the most likely winner , won this last year and like that victory , had a run on the flat previously before coming here .

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by jtw1

Unfortunatly one of the 2 races highlighted for SAT was the PETERBOROUGH CHASE at Huntingdon but this has cut up to a 3 horse race so i'm ignoring it .

.

Make that a two horse race

[jtw1]

HARDY EUSTACE 1st @ 3/1


The trends for the BECHER CHASE [ 2.50 AINTREE - SUNDAY ] -

11/15 were in single figures , although 4 of the last 6 were 14/1 or over.
10/15 were placed 1st,2nd or 3rd LTO
8/15 were in the top 4 in the weights
5/15 were in the bottom 4 in the weights
9y-old+ have won 10/15

Those stats leave us with SILVER JACK , around 16/1 in betting , 2nd LTO
2nd bottom weight , 9 y-old and has a good record after a lenghty break.
Worth an EW punt at odds with 19 due to run.

[jtw1]

SILVER JACK gave jockey no chance of staying in the saddle when clouting the Chair

Winner was MR POINTMENT , 2nd topweight and only beaten 3/4 l into 4th LTO and also returned at single figure [ 15/2 ] .

Story so far -

selections = 9
winners = 3 @ 8/1 , 3/1 +15/8
place = 1
unp = 4
didn't finish = 1
1pt win on each returned profit of 6.88pt