Trends

[jtw1]

TELL + LOVE OF DUBAI both unplaced
That was a weekend to forget


TUESDAY
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WARWICK 4.00 - Cond Stakes 7f . Class 3

4/6 favs
6/6 Southern trained
6/6 ran higher grade LTO
5/6 Top Rated by BHB [ other was 2nd top ]
5/6 aged 4/5 y-olds
1/6 carried a pen.

WELSH EMPEROR - Northern trained + 9y-old carrying a penalty means theres too many negatives already for me , even though it's Top Rated by BHB - 113.

CALDRA - Southern trained 4y-old , has won 1st time out , 2nd top BHB rating of 108.Ran in a Cl 1 Listed race LTO. Soft going + 7f winner.

DABBERS RIDGE - Trainer B HILLS has won the last 2 runnings of this race , however it has ran 4 times after a break of 60+ days and not won any [ 7,2,3,0] . Soft going + dist will suit but only rated 102 and ran in same Class LTO.

PRINCE FOREVER - Only ran 4 times in it's career [ 4y-old] . Will be fitter for running down the field in the LINCOLN , but the fact that stable jockey , P ROBINSON , elects to ride at NOTTINGHAM and only those 4 runs cast's enough doubts for me. Rated 104 - BHB

VANDERLIN - Another 9y-old who has won 6 of it's 7 races on GOOD or FIRMER going and joint bottom rated , 102 , leads me to reject it's chance.

CALDRA ticks enough boxes for me , especially if it neds up heading the market [ very narrow FAV on Betfair right now ]

[jtw1]

CALDRA - NR Race won by DABBERS RIDGE .


NEWMARKET - NELL GWYN STAKES 7f
--------------------------------------

8/10 placed 1st - 3rd LTO
8/10 with a BHB rating , 6 of those rated 100+
7/10 ran at NEWMARKET LTO
The last 5 winners SIRE'S figures were between 7.5f - 8.0f , the previous 5 were between 9.9f - 10.2f , strange how much of a change there appears to have been , maybe co-incidence but i'll go with the most recent.
The market has not been a great guide with 3 FAVS and 3 priced at odds of 20/1 or over .

Sticking strictly to the stats gives us one horse that fits the bill - SPINNING LUCY . Trained by B HILLS and has a RATING of 101 , SIRES figure = 8.8f and won LTO at NEWMARKET in NOV.


4.20
----

10/10 had ran no more than 4 times previously
9/10 were making their seasonal debut [ other ran on AW in Dec]
8/10 were in the top 3 in the betting.
8/10 ran LTO in October , late SEP.
7/10 placed 1st - 4th LTO
9/10 had SIRES win figure figures between 8.7f - 11.7f
The previous 6 winners had aBHB rating of between 91 -103

KHANDAHAR RUN from Henry Cecils yard gets the selction here from the 6 runners.
It's the only horse making it's seasonal debut , probably FAV , Won LTO , SIRES fig of 9.5f and only ran 3 times.

[jtw1]

KHANDAHAR RUN 2ND
SPINNING LUCY 5TH

3.45 NEWMARKET - THE CRAVEN STAKES

10/10 returned at 10/1 or under [ 3 FAVS ]
9/10 ran in a GRP Class event LTO
5/10 ran at NEWMARKET LTO - 3 in the DEWHURST , 2 in TATTERSALLS STAKES.
Only 3 won LTO
6/10 WON First time out in their 2 y-old season.
7/7 rated by the BHB had a rating over 108.

Apply the odds limit and that gets rid of DECLARATION OF WAR, THE BOGBERRY , GREAT RUMPUSCAT , INDIAN SKIPPER + ALFATHAA.

Apply the BHB rating limit takes care of PERFECT STRIDE + TWICE OVER.

ALEXANDER CASTLE trained in the NORTH so bye bye to that one.

Those who did not run over 7f LTO takes care of CITY LEADER , SCINTILLO , RIVER PROUD , ALFATHAA , DEC OF WAR , INDIAN SKIPPER , RIVER PROUD + TWICE OVER.

That leaves us with one horse who Ran LTO at NEWMARKET in the DEWHURST , WON first time out last season , is rated 120 and will probably be starting FAV .
RAVENS PASS isn't the most original selection but he fits all the stats .

[jtw1]

RAVENS PASS 2nd .


NEWBURY 4.55 1M3F 3Y-old Maiden

2007

Western Adventure (1)

3

9-3

10/11F

E A L Dunlop

Jimmy Fortune

93

2006	Hala Bek (9)	3	9-3	6/5F	M A Jarvis	Philip Robinson	97
2005	Gold Gun (2)	3	9-0	16/1	M A Jarvis	Philip Robinson	93
2004	Graham Island (4)	3	9-0	5/4F	G Wragg	Darryll Holland	83
2003	Westmoreland Road (5)	3	9-0	10/1	Mrs A J Perrett	T Quinn	91
2002	Gamut (1)	3	9-0	10/11F	Sir Michael Stoute	K Fallon	96
2001	Shaandar (3)	3	9-0	11/2	J L Dunlop	Richard Hughes	99
2000	Millenary (3)	3	9-0	4/1	J L Dunlop	Pat Eddery	85
1999	Salford Express (6)	3	9-0	7/2	D R C Elsworth	T Quinn	92
1997	Ghataas (7)	3	9-0	7/2F	J L Dunlop	R Hills	96

9 out of 10 in the top 3 in the betting.
9 out of 10 ran 1 or 2 races as a 2y-old.
7 of those were placed between 2nd - 5th in either of their previous races ; 4 finished 2nd.
10 out of 10 ran no later than SEP.
9 out of 10 ran at 7f or 1m LTO.
J DUNLOP has trained 3 winners , none since 2001.
M JARVIS has trained 2 , last one was a debutant.

NEMO SPIRIT - Ran twice , last time was 2nd on the course back in Oct over 8f.
TIGHNABRUICH - also fits the stats but NEMO has a GR 1 entry so narrowly gets the vote

[jtw1]

NEMO SPIRIT - NR - Withdrawn
TIGHNABRUICH 1ST @ 4/1 !!

[jtw1]

2.15 NEWBURY
--------------

10/10 returned at 10/1 or UNDER [ 3favs ]
8/10 aged 4-6 y-olds.
ALL had placed form at Group level , 6 had won a Group race.
9/10 had won at 12 f
9/9 with a BHB rating were rated 108 or above
8/10 were making their seasonal Turf debut.

Cut out all those over 10/1 in the betting and that leaves us with 7 to consider -

MALT OR MASH - Won a Listed event at Kempton LTO , but this will be his first foray into Group races and with 4 of his 5 wins on GOOD or better i think it's got a lot to do .

TRANQUIL TIGER - Beaten in it's Grp 3 race it ran in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood but that was slow run race [ 6 secs above standard on Good ground ] , has won a Listed event and the stable is in great form but it has only tackled going as slow as it will be today in it's first run [ 6th ] all other runs on Good OR better

ZAHAM - Finished last [ suffered an overreach ] at Lingfield in the Winter Derby , never won beyond 10f [ was 2nd in it's only run over the distance ] and must be against it today at this level.

REGIME - The same problem as with ZAHAM in that this one has not won over the 12f and when 3rd LTO in a race of that distance , the RP cast doubt over whether the trip is too far for it .

IVY CREEK - Has won over the distance and the ground , however it has only won only at LISTED race level but has a couple of placings in Grp races. Not without a chance if the ground turns soft.

ROYAL AND REGAL - No problems with 12f for this ex-Frence horse , as it has won at 2m as well as todays 12f. That 2m win was a GrP 3 event and the wetter it gets the better

RED GALA - Course and Distance no problem for this one , but only won at Class 2 level , major negative.

REAGAL AND ROYAL can make it's UK debut a winning one , especially if the rain comes down . Add to the that the record of N CALLAN'S rides on 4y-olds+ for the stable [ 11 from 46 rides , 24% ] and the 10/1 available with BETFRED looks tasty .

[jtw1]

ROYAL AND REGAL 1ST @ 13/2

Pity i couldn't spell the damn thing properly in the post !!!!!

[Mighty Magyar]

Good work JTW

[jtw1]

SUNDAY
-------
LEOPARDSTOWN 2.25

A 2y-old Maiden where only 2 of the 11 have set hoof on a racecourse but theres some interesting pointers.

8/10 were in the top 4 in the betting [ 6/1 or under ]
7/10 were FILLYS
J BOLGERS record reads - 0 , 1 ,- ,3 , 3 , - ,1 ,1 ,1 , 6.
K MANNING has ridden all of those from the stable

Now , from 11 runners there's only 3 fillies and 2 of those are trained by JIM BOLGER and it's SOLASAI thats being ridden by K MANNING and is 5/1 jt 3rd fav in the RP F/cast.

[jtw1]

A couple of pointers more than selections for Sunday

2.30 Stratford - 7/10 FAVS have won this [ 6 clear , 1 jt ] QUICKBEAM looks like starting at around EVENS.

5.00 Wincanton - P HOBBS record since 2000 is - 1 , - , 1 , 0 , 1 , 1.
He's running 2 today , BASEBALL TED [prefer softer going ? ] and the Handicap debutant ELTON.
Well beaten over shorter distances in his 3 runs to date could the 2m6f make the difference ?
Hobb's last winner in this [ PENNY PARK ] followed a similar pattern , being well beaten in it's 3 Maidens [ 82 lengths in total ] it did make it's Handicap debut at Newbury [ fin 5th only btn 5L @ 15/2 f ]] before winning this in 2006.
If theres money for this it could be worth an interest .

[jtw1]

SOLASSAI 4TH

QUICKBEAM 1ST @ 5/6 Fav
ELTON - UNP , BASEBALL TED 4TH.


MONDAY
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6.55 WINDSOR 1M 3Y-OLD FILLIES MAIDEN STKS

10 out of 11 were either FAV or 2nd FAV [ other was 3rd FAV ]
10 out of 11 ran as a 2y-old.
10 of those last ran in SEP/OCT.
10 of those were placed no worse than 7th.
9 of those ran 7f or 1m LTO.
Out of 7 races run on GD or GD/FM , all were drawn in the top half of the stalls.


Assuming the top 3 in the betting forecast according to the RP correspond with tomorrow's sp's then in should be between KATIMONT and DIAMOND ROYAL .
They match every stat with the exception of the draw and thats why DIAMOND ROYAL in stall 8 gets the nod over KATIMONT in stall 3.
* thats providing the ground is no worse than GOOD.

[jtw1]

KATIMONT 1ST DIAMOND ROYAL 4TH

THURSDAY
----------
BEVERLY 4.55 1M 3Y-OLD+ MAIDEN

6/6 was won by a 3y-old.
6/6 won by a horse in the top 5 in the betting [3 favs] .
6/6 were trained at NEWMARKET.
ALL had a previous outing .
ALL had last ran over 7f/1m.
3 colts/geldings have won from 24 runners.
3 fillies have won from 15 runners.

Get rid of those over 3y-old takes care of the top 6 , then discount any Northern trained animal removes another 5.

That leaves - HEPBURN BELL , BOWDEN STONE and E MAJOR.
Not a great deal between these 3 at first glance but BOWDEN STONE'S 3rd LTO was on soft going [5.5 secs over the ave] and was well beaten in it's debut last season.
E MAJOR will no doubt run a race and STOUTE has a reasonable 4 wins from 15 3 y-olds with this age group at BEVERLY
HEPBURN BELL gets the nod over E MAJOR due to FANSHAWE having 6 wins from 26 3 y-old runners [ at BEVERLY] and the slightly better win percentage of Fillies compared to the colts.

[smk415]

nice going jt have not been on in a very long time

[jtw1]

Nice to see you smk415 and nice to see we found another winner -

HEPBURN BELL 1ST @ 2/1

[jtw1]

SANDOWN 1.50 GRP 3 STAKES 10f
-----------------------------------

9/10 were aged 4 or 5 y-olds
SP's have ranged from Fav to outsider .
The last 6 winners have won at GRP 3 level or above in their career , which seems to show a change from the previous 4 seasons when all 4 won at Listed company only.
8/10 were rated above 110 with the BHB .


HATTAN won the WINTER DERBY TLO but out of the first 8 home behind him that day , 5 have ran and lost next time , usually at a lower grade . Being a 6y-old also is a negative.

4 others have not won above LISTED Class they are -

CHAMPIONSHIP POINT - M Channon's stable still not firing and only rated 105.
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE - Stable only had a third from last 8 runners and also it's usually one of the 'top' boys that win this.
MANY VOLUMES - Not sure to run if it stays on the soft side and rated 103.
PHILATELIST -3 career wins have came on the AW , rated 102.

M JOHNSTONES is a non-runner .

Which leaves us with Sir M Stoutes ASK , who has two GRP3 wins under it's belt , inc FTO last season at Chester , is rated 119 , wouldn't want it too soft but has won twice on G/S [ tomorrows forecasted going]
Unusual for the stable to keep a 5y-old in training so hopefully it will be fit enough to do justice .
Slight concern over the fate of the FAVS here with only 3 [ inc 1 jt] winning from 10 .