Trends

[jtw1]

No excuses toaday , PLANTEUR unp , ETON FOREVER 5th @ 14/1.

Thursday - 3.45 Gold Cup 20f Grp 1

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13/15 were aged between 4 and 6 y-old
12/14 with a rating were rated 111+
12/15 had ran either 1 or 2 races that season , 7 had won.
14/15 had won at least 4 races [inc NH]
12/15 started at 11/1 or under [ 3 Favs of which YEATS was 2 ]
12/15 had winning form at Grp 1 or 2 level
6/15 had ran in the HENRY II Stakes at Sandown , 2 had won it.
0/11 were Mares [ a 5th place from 7 runners under 20/1 is the best finish for this sex ]

* RITE OF PASSAGE at 20/1 broke several Trends last year .

Rated below the 111 mark - AAIM TO PROSPER , ASKAR TAU , GEORDIELAND , THE BETCHWORTH KID , FICTIONAL ACCOUNT and MOTRICE.

Only DRUM TAPS in '93 [won in '92 ] and YEATS in 2008/9 have been aged over 6yo - Take out BLUE BAJAN [9] , KASBAH BLISS [9] and TASTAHIL [7]

HOLBERG has never won above G3 .

The remaining 5 have all ran this year , won at G1/2 Grade and won at least 4 races.

9/10 had won at 2m+ - DUNCAN [14F] , FAME AND GLORY [14F] and MANIGHAR [15F] have not.

That leaves me with 2 at juicy prices , OPINION POLL a G2 winner at York last season who may need a bit more give in the ground and the French-trained BRIGANTIN , a winner at G2 and 3 grade who won't mind the going at all .
A FABRE can add this prize to his Derby win .
The jockey has won 2 from 4 on this one .

Preference is for the Frenchman but i'll have a small bet on the other just in case .

Stake 8pts BRIGANTIN @ 20/1
Stake 2pts OPINION POLL @ 25/1

[jtw1]

2nd and 3rd Doh !!


Friday - CORONATION STAKES [c/o Racecaller]
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10/10 were foaled between Jan -mar.
10/10 had won at least one of their first two 2yo races.
10/10 had ran that season.
10/10 were returned at 8/1 or under , the past 6 Favs have won.
9/10 had been placed in the first 6 in either the English/Irish or French Guineas.
8/10 were sired by a Group 1 winner over 7-9f
7 of the last 9 winners at Ascot were drawn in top or bottom 3 stalls.

CLAIOMH SOLAIS , ELSHABAKIYA , JOVIALITY had either never ran or nor won either of their first 2 two year out outings.

The American raider MORE THAN REAL has not ran since Nov '10.

BAREFOOT LADY , CLINICAL and I LOVE ME are all double figures in the betting.

IMMORTAL VERSE was foaled on May 1st , NOVA HAWK - Apr 10 , THEYSKENS THEORY May 6 and TOGETHER Apr 28 , so all fail on that stat.

2 left and those are MAQAASID , 3rd in the English Guineas and 8th [from a poor draw ] in the French version.
J GOSDEN has had all his 6 runners that started under 10/1 placed in the first 3 [ 1 win , 5 placed]

MEMORY started 2nd Fav for the Newmarket Guineas but virtually refused to race , finishing 18 of 18 .
If we forgive that outing she has a decent chance and R HANNON has a record over the past 10 runnings of 1 win a nd 1 placed from 2 runners.

STAKE 5pts MAQAASID @ 9/1
STAKE 5pts MEMORY @ 8/1

[jtw1]

MAQAASID non runner
MEMORY unp

Last chance Saloon chaps

Sat - Ascot Hardwicke Stakes 12f Grp 2
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15/15 were 4, 5 or 6 y olds
12/12 with a rating were rated at 111 or above.
15/15 were returned at 12/1 or UNDER [ only 2/12 Fav ]
14/15 ran at Group level LTO with 8 in Group 1 company LTO
14/15 had ran that season , with 12 of them being placed in the first 3 on at least one occasion.
14/15 had won at Group 2 /3 grade
14/15 ran at Grp 1-3 level LTO
12/15 had won over 12/13f.
7/15 had ran in the Coronation Cup at the DERBY meeting LTO without winning it.



KINGS GAMBIT is a 7yo.
ALL the rest are rated over 111.
AWAIT THE DAWN and POET have never won past 10f.
DRUNKEN SAILOR and PASSION FOR GOLD only ran at Listed grade LTO.
LAAHEB has ran twice this season [inc once in Dubai ] but did not finish in the first 3.
HARRIS TWEED has not won at Group grade.

That leaves a pair of GODOLPHIN runners in the shape of CAMPANOLOGIST and CALVADOS BLUES .
Both have form on G/S - Soft ground , the latter has shown improved form from last season [races mainly in Dubai] with a win and a 2nd place in Handicaps as well as a 2nd behind MONTEROSSO in a G2 and a 3rd behind REWILDING in a G1 LTO .
Worry that he has not ran in 84 days and he has not shown he goes well fresh .
CAMPANOLOGIST is a frustrating character but has 2 G1 wins in Germany as well as a G2 win over C/D at the '08 Royal Meeting.
Despite his one win on Soft i'm not totally convinced it's his favoured surface but it's his track record that stands out - 0 , 1 , 2 , 2 .


Stake 6pts CALVADOS BLUES @ 12/1
Stake 4pts CAMPANOLOGIST @ 16/1

both Ladbrokes.


WOKINGHAM STAKES
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10/11 ran within 50 days.
9/11 were 4 or 5yo's , 6yo+ record is 1-11-112.
9/11 carried between 8:11 and 9:06.
9/11 had won at Class 2 or better .
9/11 had won no more than 2 Handicaps.
9/11 won or were placed LTO.
The last 5 winners were drawn within 6 stalls of one of the rails.
The only horse to win from the middle was Fayr Jag who dead-heated in 2003 and in retrospect he was probably well ahead of the handicapper that day considering he won listed and group 3 in his next 4 runs and won the group 1 Golden Jubilee over same C&D the following year.
The Golden Jubilee at 3.45 (the race before) which is run over the same course and distance should also gives us clues as to the best draw. Last year only 1 stall separated where the 2 winners were drawn.


I think the obvious place to start is those drawn within 6 stalls of either side .

GRAMERCY has not been out for 252 days and GLOBAL CITY for 107 .

EVENS AND ODDS is a 7yo while BARNEY MCGREW is 8.

BLUE JACK has won 8 times but ALL have been over 5f

MASAMAH has won 3 Handicaps , another negative is that 5 of his 6 career wins have been over 5f while his only 6f was over Chester's tight track.

ANNE OF KIEV has won 5 Handicaps.
FASTHA has won 9 Handicaps.
LOVE DELTA has won 5 Handicaps.
SWISS CROSS has won 3 Handicaps.

That leaves 2 high drawn runners in LUI REI from the PROHIBIT yard of R COWELL and Dandy Nicholls NASRI , of the 2 i'd expect NASRI to be able to handle the ground conditions better and his 3rd in the VICTORIA CUP over a furlong more at the course LTO was a decent run and he reatins the 3lb claimer who rode him that day.
LUI REI was a Group winner in France and Italy in his 2yo days and has ran well without winning since coming to the UK .
A hold-up horse this race race should be run to suit but ,as i have already stated , whether the give in the ground will suit is a doubt but at the odds i have to go for both .

Stake 6pts NASRI @ 20/1
Stake 4pts LEI REI @ 20/1

both VC BET.

[jtw1]

OK , managed to turn profit to loss of 25pts .......time to grab the bull by the bollocks and get back to basics .


NEWMARKET 3.20 7f Grp 3 3yo+
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Winners have ranged from 2 Favs p to 2 16/1's and all prices in between.

12/12 had won at LISTED/GROUP level.
12/12 had won at least twice previously.
12/12 were Southern trained [ 7 Newmarket ]
11/12 had ran previously ran that season with 9 being placed 1st-4th at least once.
11/12 had won / been placed or beaten 2l or under in a Group race.
11/12 had won over 7f [ 7 more than once ]
11/11 were rated 107+.
10/10 ran at Listed /Group level LTO [other 2 were Cl 2 ]
8/12 were 4 or 5 y olds.

Not unduly worried about the 3y-o's as only 7 have contested the race in the past 8 seasons with 1 win three 2nd's .
2 of those youger runners were unfancied at 16's and 25's , so , if fancied in the market ,they actually have a decent record .

FIELD OF DREAM , INLER , KAKATOSI , PALACE MOON are all below the 107 mark [ PAUSANIAS is on 106 but being a 3yo having only his 6th career run i'll allow for improvement ]

Also going are the 2 Northern raiders AWZAAN and REDFORD.

LIBRANO is the only runner of those remaining not to have won over 7f but as he has NEVER run over 7f thats quite understandable

All 6 have also won at Listed/Group level.

Of the 2 three year olds LIBRANNO , as pointed out above, has never ran over 7f and his 3 career wins have been over 6f .
He was 2nd over a mile in the Craven but has disappointed since with only 4th and 3rd placing's in a couple of Listed races .
Has an entry in the 6f July Cup so maybe sprinting is his forte ?

Stablemate and stable jocKey's choice is PAUSANIAS , a winner 3 times over the 7f and at Listed Grade but 2 of those were on G/F and the other on the AW , although officially G/S i think the ground may dry out to become Good but will that suit him ? , i have to doubt it even taking into account the decent record of the younger generation in this.

THE CHEKA beat BEACON LODGE , INLER ,KAKATOSI and SHAKESPERIAN in a G3 at Haydock LTO and now has to concede 5lb's to all 4.
That was after a couple of 2nd's in G3's including a run behind to LOLLY FOR DOLLY who went on to take the G2 Windsor Castle at ASCOT.
The ground shouldn't affect his performance and Fallon has ridden him several times [but not to a victory though]

This is BEACON LODGE's distance and will have the ground better suited to him today rather than the G/F he encountered when 4l behind THE CHEKA .
That and the 5lb he recieves should ensure he finishes closer this time .
If this was run at Haydock or Newbury [ he has won twice at both] i'd be more confidant but thats only a slight concern .

SHAKESPERIAN has been beaten a total of 76 lengths in his last 4 runs , stone last in the Haydock race btn just over 6l and can't see any real reason why he should turn the tables on any of the other 3 who finished in front of him in that race .
Every chance on his 2 /3 yo form but not until he shows a bit more promise could i recommend him .

A filly won this back in '07 with another back in 5th only btn a couple of lengths and thats been from very few runners indeed so i wouldn't knock FLAMBEAU's chances on that score.
She has won twice over the 7f and at Listed grade .
Second in a G3 lto to PERFECT TRIBUTE [who floundered on Soft ground next time ] she has never finished out of the first 3 in her 7 races after running 5th on her debut .
Worryingly however the ground conditions for both those victories were on ground officially descibed as G/F.

I believe the likely winner will come from either THE CHEKA or BEACON LODGE .
Therefore it's 5pts on each at 13/2 and 6/1 respectively with Bet365.