Trends

[jtw1]

SUCH A MAN 5TH @ 16/1 , One to keep track off in the coming weeks imo

SATURDAY - NEWBURY 1.05 - 2M NOV HURDLE G/S

7/7 were in the top 3 in the betting HOWEVER only one FAV has won with the other 6 ,at odds ranging from odds-on up to 7/4 , being beaten.
7/7 aged 5 or 6y-old , 17 runners aged 7+ have ran - NO WINS
0/7 was a mare
6/7 had ran previously over hurdles
6 of those 6 had won either a NH Flat or Hurdle race.
5/6 started st odds of 5/1 or below LTO.
6/6 raced in at least a Class 4 event LTO

The top 4 in the RP f/cast are -
ZEBRA CROSSING - 7-YOLD
PRESSGANG
CUTTING CREW - 7Y-OLD + DEBUTANT
PASCO

So if we ignore the two 7y-olds on age grounds that leaves PRESSGANG +
PASCO .
The latter comes from the powerful NICHOLS stable and bing only a 5y-old who has won one of it's 2 races so far which was a CL 4 race certainly has a chance .
BUT his opponent here had it's first run for 681 days LTO when finishing 3rd over C/D in a time [24.50 secs on soft ] which was slightly quicker than PASCO'S C/D win on G/SFT [24.85 secs ]
Another factor in selecting PRESSGANG is that it finished 2nd in the FESTIVAL BUMPER in 2006 behind HAIRY MOLLY.
That is an event which produces multiple + classy winners

[jtw1]

PRESSGANG [5/1] ran well to finish 5th to PASCO [4/1]

Thats what happens when i try to select a winner between 2 selections !!!!
Maybe DAVE NEVISON'S approach of backing 2 or 3 in a race should be used ?

[jtw1]

LEOPARDSTOWN 2.15 GR 1 NOV HURDLE

8/10 were clear FAV , otehrs were 2nd fav + 4th fav.
9/10 WON LTO
5/10 WON the Future Champions Novices Hurdle over C/D Xmas meeting.
7/10 ran at GR3 or above LTO.
None were returnd at odds over 4/1 LTO


Qutie simply the horse which won the Future Champ race at C/D LTO appears to have at least a 50% chance of winning this , although looking at BETFAIR 'S odds it looks like starting 3rd fav the vote still goes to WHATUTHINK

[jtw1]

WHATUTHINK a well beaten 5th , the race was won by the 2 horses that finished 2nd + 3rd in that Future Champs race over the Xmas meeting !!

FOLKESTONE 1.30 2M4F NOV HURDLE

5/6 won by a horse in the top 3 in the betting [ last year the FAV and jt 2+3rd favs slipped up/ brought down ]
5/6 aged 6/7 y-old
5/6 carried min of 11:02 [ inc claimer win in 2004 ]
One seasonal debutant has won the rest had been placed between 1st-4th LTO [inc NH Flat ]
4/4 with hurdling form had stepped down in class to win this.

Out of the probable top 3 in the betting , leave out INGHWUNG as it carries only 10:11.
That leaves AUX LE BAHN + ANOTHER BROTHER who ran against each other LTO with the former finishing 1l in front of the former [ ridden by 7lb claimer ] As that was AUX LE BAHN'S first outing of the season it seems reasonable to assume that further progress could be made so that gets it the selection .

[ONEDUNME]

Sorry to interupt jtw, I didn't see the race yesterday but I actually backed Whatuthink last time it won (20 or 25 to one or something). I had it down (for that reason, plus JP always gets a big priced winner at the festival) on my list as an ew bet at Cheltenham as it's due to run in one of the novice hurdle races there.

If you saw the race, my question is, could the run be put down to the horse needing a run? or not liking yesterday's ground? or would you advise me to just save my money.

I also have Tranquil Sea in my notebook and that's also due to run at Cheltenham. If you had to chose between them, which one would it be?


Thanks.

[jtw1]

Think that WHATUTHINK will be lucky to be placed at CHELTENHAM mate .
The main factors for yesterdays defeat , imo , is that last time it was his hurdling that won him the race , the 2nd + 3rd made mistakes that cost them ground that time , yesterday i was a different story as both jumped far better and although WHATUTHINK might prefer it a bit Softer than what it was i wouldn't think that was a major factor y'day.
Also it would take a Very good horse to make all the running at CHELTENHAM , another factor against WHATUTHINK.

TRANQUIL SEA definatly impressed and is certainly going in the right direction .Def looks an interesting prospect for the Festival.

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by jtw1

WHATUTHINK a well beaten 5th , the race was won by the 2 horses that finished 2nd + 3rd in that Future Champs race over the Xmas meeting !!

FOLKESTONE 1.30 2M4F NOV HURDLE

5/6 won by a horse in the top 3 in the betting [ last year the FAV and jt 2+3rd favs slipped up/ brought down ]
5/6 aged 6/7 y-old
5/6 carried min of 11:02 [ inc claimer win in 2004 ]
One seasonal debutant has won the rest had been placed between 1st-4th LTO [inc NH Flat ]
4/4 with hurdling form had stepped down in class to win this.

Out of the probable top 3 in the betting , leave out INGHWUNG as it carries only 10:11.
That leaves AUX LE BAHN + ANOTHER BROTHER who ran against each other LTO with the former finishing 1l in front of the former [ ridden by 7lb claimer ] As that was AUX LE BAHN'S first outing of the season it seems reasonable to assume that further progress could be made so that gets it the selection .

2ND @ 4/5F behind INGHWUNG

Nothing for WEDS

[ONEDUNME]

Thanks for your input mate

Tranquil Sea will definitely be carrying some of my cash at Cheltenham.

[jtw1]

ASCOT 1.15

9/10 winner was returned at odds of 3/1 or UNDER [ 5 clear favs]
7/10 were aged 7-old , 2 were 6 and one was a 5 y-old.
10/10 WON LTO , of which 7 were after New Years day , 2 were at KEMPTON's Xmas meeting , the other was an ex-French debutant.

Fairly straight-forward here then

AIRFORCEONE - FAV , won LTO [24th jan] and a 6y-old
JOE LIVELY - 2ND FAV , WON LTO [Kemp Xmas] but a 9y-old

The others are above 3/1 [so far ] and only ALBERTA'S RUN won LTO [ 91 days ago]
AIRFORCEONE is the selection

[jtw1]

HAYDOCK 12.35

Simple as pie this one

4/5 were FAVS [ other was 2nd]
5/5 carried penalty

SERABAD is a clear FAV [ evens ] with the 2nd fav around 4/1 and is one of only 2 runners to carry a penalty .

[jtw1]

SERABAD 1ST @ 6/5 F
AIRFORCEONE 2ND@ 15/8F

[jtw1]

2.40 NAVAN - BOYNE HURDLE

8/10 won by the FAV .
8/10 aged 6-8 y-old.
7/10 had won twice in the previous 3 outings.
10/10 had won at least once in the prev 3 outings.


AITMATOV looks like starting FAV but take note of the poor form the stable has been in for several weeks now .N MEADE has a very good record in this race with 3 wins from 6 runners in 10 seasons.
FOOTY FACTS and EARTH MAGIC are the only other runners with winning form in their last 3 outings [ latter has won twice]

Had a look at exchanges + bookies and AITMATOV appears to be drifting while FOOTY FACTS is coming in , EARTH MAGIC steady in the betting.

So, the selection is FOOTY FACTS , cannot ignore the poor stable form of N MEADE.
Is it sensible to have a bet on EARTH MAGIC too ?? Think i will @ 5.0 for both it makes sense [ i hope]

[jtw1]

FOOTY FACTS unp

Keeping it short and to the point for the RACING POST CHASE

Since '97 only 40 horses have carried 11:00 or above , but from those 7 have won and they have been responsible for 45% of placed runners.
9/10 finished 1st or 2nd LTO.
9/10 ran in HANDICAP company LTO.
10/10 were returned in single figure odds .

That leaves us with GUNGADU + UNGARO , with preference for the latter .

[jtw1]

WHY OH WHY do i give my opinion when a couple of horses stand out !!!

Just nominate and back the 2 of them if the odds allow ya NUMPTY

1st - GUNGADU @ 4/1

[jtw1]

WOLVES 3.25 - LINCOLN TRIAL

9/10 were aged 4 or 5y-old
Only 1 Fav has won from the last 10 runnings
9/10 were returned at an odds range of 5/1 - 16/1
Weight range - 8:08 to 9:08

Applying these leaves around 5 to chose from but here's an interesting stat concerning the horse drawn 12 in this race.
3 have won and 3 have been placed .
Maybe just an anomaly but the horse in the 12 stall tomorrow has SEB SAUNDERS on board and this will be only it's 3rd outing in Britain.
It has won 9 times and 4 of those were on an ALL-WEATHER surface

Ex-Italian RE BAROLO is the horse in question and at odds around 8/1 could be worth an EW interest